In this case the middle paid off as New England won by 3 points, paying
sharp bettors on both the moneyline and the spread.
This indicates that most sportsbooks have likely been taking big money from
sharp bettors on Pittsburgh to counter the influx of public / square money on Indianapolis.
That's especially true if it's a heavily bet game (i.e. Spurs vs. Warriors), or if there's not enough buyback from
sharp bettors on the other side.
In PJ's article this morning, he notes how public bettors are all over the «over», but
sharp bettors on the under have caused the line to move from 8 to 7.5.
That's because sportsbooks have an excellent balance with casual bettors on San Antonio and
sharp bettors on Los Angeles.
This weekend will be a great test of public bettors on the underdogs vs.
sharper bettors on the favorites, similar to Mayweather vs. McGregor.
Not exact matches
Early
sharp action pushed the line down to -7 — but as usual,
bettors are getting down
on the favorite.
Oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action
on each side but rather shade their opening lines to capitalize
on public perception and then allow their
sharpest bettors to shape the line.
As it gets closer to game time, we'll see if there are some
sharp bettors looking to «buy back»
on the other side.
That line remained unchanged for three hours until
sharp bettors jumped
on Oklahoma City +7.5, triggering a steam move at Pinnacle.
Though public
bettors seem to be pounding the hometown Heat,
sharp money is coming in
on the Kings and pushing the line down.
When
sharp bettors and betting syndicates decide
on a play, you can be sure that a lot of money is going to be placed
on that team across multiple sportsbooks in a short amount of time.
On the other hand, square books like Bovada and Sportsbook have low limits and aren't going to be taking any large bets from the world's
sharpest bettors.
It will be intriguing to see how
sharp bettors feel about USC this week, as there may be some value
on Cal if they get up to +7.
Even though the public doesn't like the Cowboys» chances,
sharp bettors jumped
on the opportunity to get Dallas +3.5, as we've tracked three bet signals
on them and none
on Philly.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based
on the action of their
sharpest bettors, and they won't move the number based
on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided public betting and limited
sharp action
on the other side.
As an added bonus, you can also fade the public, follow the
sharp bettors and place yourself
on the side of the books.
On Aug. 20, Floyd was available at -445 at Bookmaker, but over the last few days it has become evident that
sharp bettors sensed that it was their time strike.
Sportsbooks and
sharp bettors have been high
on the Falcons, and even with the public support it would be surprising to see this line get to +3.
The public was against USC last week against Utah but
sharp money
on the Trojans and an easy cover has completely changed the views of
bettors.
As of now, it doesn't appear that
sharp bettors have taken a stance
on this game.
Although
sharper bettors may often place larger bets
on the dogs, it will be beneficial in the long run for dogs to hit at a higher rate in order to combat the overwhelming public support
on favorites.
Additionally, a number of betting systems have been triggered
on Kansas City, including a Smart Money Play from Sportsbook.com (7 - 3, +3.55 units), providing further evidence that
sharp bettors like the home dog in this contest.
In David Purdum's recent article at ESPN Chalk, he reports that large bets by square
bettors taking the short trip from California have been
on the Dodgers, but sportsbooks expect
sharp money to come in
on the Astros for both game 1 and the series.
Before the season
sharper bettors were high
on Auburn and they've been paying off for them.
However, it appears that larger bets being made by
sharper bettors have been placed
on Kentucky.
As you can see from the line history above, public
bettors on FSU +7.5 or +7 were already taking the «
sharp» side.
While the current data shows that
sharp and public
bettors are lining up
on different sides, there's still plenty of time for that to change, especially if this line gets to Philadelphia +3 and inspires buyback as limits continue to increase.
With Jon Lester
on the hill,
sharp bettors weren't buying into the wind hype.
While most casual
bettors are still focused
on football, these
sharps are hammering college basketball lines.
This time,
sharper bettors have come in
on FSU at +7.5 and +7.
One - sided public betting caused the total to increase from 213.5 to 214
on two separate occasions, but
sharp bettors immediately pounded the under both times.
Interestingly, this is the least bet (in terms of overall number of bets) college football game of the day, providing another example of how
sharp bettors don't bet for solely for action, but focus
on value and value alone.
Without any action to get down
on (besides the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic itself),
sharp and square
bettors alike are forced to...
With the line now -2.5, don't be surprised to see
sharp bettors buyback the Jaguars based
on line value alone.
According to our
Sharp Action Report (available to Sportsbook Insider Advantage subscribers), the public may be coming in hard on the Eagles, but sharp bettors have consistently bought back the value with the Cowboys, making it most popular bet among professionals so far this
Sharp Action Report (available to Sportsbook Insider Advantage subscribers), the public may be coming in hard
on the Eagles, but
sharp bettors have consistently bought back the value with the Cowboys, making it most popular bet among professionals so far this
sharp bettors have consistently bought back the value with the Cowboys, making it most popular bet among professionals so far this week.
Right now, this movement appears to be based
on public money as opposed to
sharp money, so there is added value
on the Dolphins based
on square
bettors.
It isn't often that public and
sharper bettors are both
on an underdog like this during the regular season, but trendy dogs do seem to pop up more often in the NCAA Tournament.
It's also worth noting that oddsmakers respect the opinion of their
sharpest bettors, and won't adjust based
on public money if those
sharps have taken a side.
We do not recommend betting against every single ranked team, but knowing that these rankings can artificially inflate the line based
on public perception can help add value for
sharp bettors.
While the average Joe
bettor might be throwing a few bucks down
on the Bronx Bombers and their new star pitcher,
sharp bettors are hammering the defending American League champs.
It's also worth noting that there's a false narrative which dictates that
sharp bettors only take underdogs and therefore there's never value
on the favorite.
That means in addition to targeting heavily bet games with one - sided public betting, contrarian
bettors need to make sure there have been no
sharp money indicators (like steam moves and / or reverse line movement)
on their opponent.
Based
on those numbers, it's not at all surprising that
sharp bettors steamed the AAC Championship total from an opener of 81 to the current number of 85.5, confirming that professionals are not shying away from the «over» despite the historically high total.
Right now 64 % of tickets and 77 % of the money wagered is
on Chicago, which means that both
sharp and public
bettors are taking the Hawks.
In a day headlined by the start of college bowl season, two Saturday NFL games, and intriguing NBA and college hoops matchups,
sharp bettors have looked elsewhere to dig up a hidden gem
on the...
This doesn't mean that
bettors who want to follow the action should wager 23.5 units
on the game, but is simply a way to rank games receiving the most attention from
sharp players.
Though the line movement and money would suggest that
sharp bettors are
on the 76ers, our old pal David Solar points out that teams in this situation have not fared well.
Without any action to get down
on (besides the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic itself),
sharp and square
bettors alike are forced to take a step back, reflect
on their first - half performance, re-examine winning and losing strategies and prepare for the second - half of the season.
Money continues to pour in
on both sides, with the
sharps matching the public
bettors dollar for dollar.»