At Washington -7, I'd expect the betting to even out during the week and could see
sharps moving this line to Washington -7.5 at some point.
Usually
the sharps move the line but they are on New England according to your info.
Not exact matches
Knowing all the forces that
move lines in real time — public betting,
sharp money, injury reports & weather updates — is vital to making a profit.
Pinnacle caters to professional bettors, which means they take higher limits and have
sharper line moves.
With
sharps and squares hammering the Celtics, oddsmakers have been forced to adjust their
line by 3.5 - points,
moving from Chicago -1 to Boston -2.5.
Pinnacle caters to professional bettors, which means they take higher limits and therefore have
sharper line moves.
That
line remained unchanged for three hours until
sharp bettors jumped on Oklahoma City +7.5, triggering a steam
move at Pinnacle.
Betting
lines move for many reasons; injury updates, weather, etc., but «betting
line movement» that goes against the «betting percentages» is an excellent indicator of Smart Money, also referred to as
Sharp Money.
Each matchup is different, and bettors need to pay attention to factors like public betting trends and
sharp money indicators like steam
moves and / or reverse
line movement.
If a
line moves in one direction, but the Public is on the other side, it implies that «bigger» — and normally «smarter» or «
sharper» — money is on the side of the
line move.
As you can see, steady OKC money pushed the
line up to 3 before our Bet Signals triggered a Steam
Move on Houston, indicating that
sharp money entered the market to buyback the value of Rockets +3.
Every sport book today is computerized, Back in my day money always
moved the
line if a player was respected, and if the squares tossed enough money on a game most books would
move the
line a little, However the big books would just sit and even take layoffs from the small stores, They knew even if the squares got hot in the end the juice would eat em up.Gone are the days when Billy Walters and his crew would
move the
line 3 and 4 points, I'm talking sides not totals, Forget about what they did to the horseshoe with totals in the NBA, Back then you could catch small non computerized stores with bad
lines to begin with, imagine a three point
move and the small store or corner bookie is off on the
line a few points to begin with, I could catch some game with 6 and seven point advantages, with computers today if you can catch a half or one point advantage your lucky.Even if you know the group
moving the
line most of these store
move the
lines on air, when I say air they just watch the screen from D.B. And
move the
line before they even get hit, Hell even the big stores have the
sharps on small limits per call.
Also, when the spread
moves in the opposite direction of the public betting percentage it's known as reverse
line movement which is an excellent indicator of
sharp money.
For anybody who's unfamiliar, Pinnacle caters to professional bettors, which means they take higher limits and have
sharper line moves.
Based on this lack of
line movement, it appears that oddsmakers are worried about taking
sharp action on the Bears if they
move the spread to 7.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their
lines based on the action of their
sharpest bettors, and they won't
move the number based on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided public betting and limited
sharp action on the other side.
However, the very early
line moves on the Falcons indicated some
sharper money to
move the
line up to -5.5, which the public then bet back down again to -4:
Since the
lines at these market - setting sportsbooks are much
sharper, they have historically produced the most profitable steam
moves and reverse
line movement alerts.
If we see some more real
sharp action on Seattle, we could see that
line move to the key number of three.
Public money caused the
line to
move a half - point, but
sharp bettors quickly snatched up Toronto +8.
This influx of bets and public money on one side ends up creating value on the other side; the
line may
move and
sharps will come in to grab it, or the
line won't
move and sportsbooks will end up with more liability on the public side.
Because they cater to professional players, their
line moves are much
sharper than other offshore sportsbooks.
Since there's limited public money in the marketplace,
sharp bettors are mainly responsible for
moving lines.
Sportsbooks are obviously hesitant to
move their
lines off key numbers since they will often get hammered with
sharp action if they
move.
If you're playing at a sportsbook with a double
line, they will
move you from square to
sharp in a hurry if you consistently beat them on off numbers.
Sharp vs. public
line moves 3.
That eight - cent reverse
line move is an excellent indicator that
sharp money likes the home favorite in tonight's matchup.
This heavily lopsided betting
moved the
line a half - point to Ohio State -5.5 before we saw some
sharp buy - back knocking the
line down to -4.
Years ago, when the
lines were not as
sharp and perhaps the «market was less efficient,» alert cappers would look out for steam
moves and hop on the bandwagon.
Since sportsbooks will only adjust their
lines based on public money in games where
sharp money isn't involved, I wanted to examine the same contrarian strategies when no Pinnacle steam
moves had been triggered on the public side.
At Sports Insights, we use our Betting Trends data and real - time odds to identify reverse -
line movement, an indicator that
sharp or big money is backing one team, and this game is a prime example with the big four - point
line move.
That means in addition to targeting heavily bet games with one - sided public betting, contrarian bettors need to make sure there have been no
sharp money indicators (like steam
moves and / or reverse
line movement) on their opponent.
Despite heavy betting on Duke (75 %), the
line didn't
move, a clear indication that South Carolina plus the points was the
sharp play.
In today's AAC final between Cincinnati and SMU, we have a great case of
sharp money
moving the
line.
Last week, early
sharp action on the Houston / Seattle over caused the
line to
move from 43 to 46.
That reverse
line movement indicates that
sharp money on the under has been responsible for this one - point
move.
There was also
sharp movement on NW from -6.5 to -7.5,
moving the
line through the key number before ultimately closing at -7.
For example if 90 % of the public is betting on Miami -3 to win, but the
line moves to Miami -2, you'll know
Sharp Money came in on the other side.
Premium and Pro members can track all the latest
line moves,
sharp money, best bets, breaking news and more.
Betting market: After this game opened Steelers -10,
sharp bettors quickly grabbed the Texans as double - digit dogs,
moving the
line to -9.
Sometimes you'll even see squares and
sharps on the same side, which can lead to some of the larger
line moves that you'll see.
Was the
line move due to
sharp money, public money, or a mix of both?
We expect the public action to
move this
line to -10, -10.5, and then look for
Sharp action to beat it back to -9.5.
You can expect to see some decent
line moves this week with all that
Sharp cash out there.
I should start by noting that the
line can
move for a variety of reasons including injuries, weather and officials, but most of the time oddsmakers shade their opening
lines to account for public money on the favorite and then allow
sharp money from their most respected clients to shape the
line.
By examining
sharp money indicators like steam
moves and reverse
line...
That
sharp money has been enough for books to take notice and drop the spread to 6, though they've now juiced up the Dallas side, perhaps an indicator that we could see this
line move back to 6.5 before game time.
In fact, a reverse
line move triggered by the
sharp offshore book Pinnacle was responsible for
moving the
line from 14 to 12.5, but it has since settled in at 13.
There hasn't been much
sharp action to convincingly
move the
line either, as it has bounced between DAL -1 and KC -1 over the past few days.
This weekend's big matchup is Ohio State hosting Penn State, and although we've seen public action on the Nittany Lions, the
sharp line moves have come in on the Buckeyes.