Not exact matches
The rapid northerly
shifts in spawning may offer a preview
of future conditions if
ocean warming continues, according to the new study published in Global Change Biology by scientists from the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, Oregon State University and NOAA Fisheries» Northwest Fisheries Science Center.
«When we included projected Antarctic wind
shifts in a detailed global
ocean model, we found water up to 4 °C
warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base
of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre
of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).
As the
oceans grow
warmer and more acidic from our emissions
of carbon dioxide, we may once again
shift the microbial balance in the
ocean.
For example, the Gulf
of Mexico has an east - west coastline that prevents a northerly or poleward
shift of species in response to
warming ocean waters,.
This
shift strengthens the
ocean currents that bring
warm, salty water to the surface, where it accelerates the melting
of Antarctic ice.
El Niño — a
warming of tropical Pacific
Ocean waters that changes weather patterns across the globe — causes forests to dry out as rainfall patterns
shift, and the occasional unusually strong «super» El Niños, like the current one, have a bigger effect on CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
The researchers reported that the
shifting winds «produce an intense
warming» just below the surface
of the
ocean.
Naturally occurring interannual and multidecadal
shifts in regional
ocean regimes such as the Pacific El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, for example, are bimodal oscillations that cycle between phases
of warmer and cooler sea surface temperatures.
El Niño is most widely known for how it
shifts the location
of warm ocean waters, leading to cooler - than - normal waters in the western tropical Pacific but
warmer - than - normal in the central and eastern parts
of the basin.
Researchers found that due to
warming waters, the edge
of the sharks» range could
shift as much as 40 miles poleward per decade, pushing the sharks away from the
warming oceans near the equator into different habitats.
Meanwhile, increasing temperature and
ocean warming may lead to the reduction
of diatom production as well as cell size, inducing poleward
shifts in the biogeographic distribution
of diatoms.
«
Warming and
ocean acidification don't happen overnight and it may be that some
of the ecosystem
shifts they facilitate will take years to become visually apparent,» Simon Freeman, a postdoctoral fellow with the American Society
of Engineering Education who has also done a series
of underwater recordings, said.
Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short - term cool and hot spells in relation to global
warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long graph
of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical
shift in the tropical Pacific
Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.
Other factors would include: — albedo
shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct effect
of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly
warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more
warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting
of sea ice shelf increasing mobility
of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts
of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in
ocean currents -LRB-?)
Given the number
of ways that things can go wrong with continued CO2 emissions (from
ocean acidfication and sea level rise to simple
warming,
shifting precipitation patterns, release
of buried carbon in perma - frost, and the possibility
of higher climate sensitivities — which seem to be needed to account for glacial / inter-glacial transitions), crossing our fingers and carrying on with BAU seems nothing short
of crazy to me.
Well, for one thing, it's very difficult to understand how a
warming process dependent on airborne greenhouse gases could suddenly, over a period
of a year or two,
shift heat from the atmosphere to the
oceans.
The other factor
of course is the extent to which wine growing in England in the so - called MWP was an indication
of a
warmer Earth during this period or a small
shift in the temperature distribution
of the Earth due to
ocean circulation patterns and suchlike.
Given all the independent lines
of evidence pointing to average surface
warming over the last few decades (satellite measurements,
ocean temperatures, sea - level rise, retreating glaciers, phenological changes,
shifts in the ranges
of temperature - sensitive species), it is highly implausible that it would lead to more than very minor refinements to the current overall picture.
I asked Lee and McPhaden how a connection to greenhouse - driven
warming could be made, given the possibility that the Pacific
shift could be the result
of long - term oscillations in conditions in the
ocean unrelated to the buildup
of heat - trapping greenhouse gases in the air.
There is so little understanding about how the
ocean parses its response to forcings by 1) suppressing (local convective scale) deep water formation where excessive
warming patterns are changed, 2) enhancing (local convective scale) deep water formation where the changed excessive
warming patterns are co-located with increased evaporation and increased salinity, and 3)
shifting favored deep water formation locations as a result
of a)
shifted patterns
of enhanced
warming, b)
shifted patterns
of enhanced salinity and c)
shifted patterns
of circulation which transport these enhanced
ocean features to critically altered destinations.
There was an interesting study in Nature Geoscience last Sunday showing pretty clearly that the accelerating flow
of the Jacobshavn glacier in recent years was most likely driven by an influx
of warm deep seawater, and that
shift was likely due to changes in pressure and wind patterns over the North Atlantic
Ocean.
Despite faster rates
of warming in terrestrial systems compared to
ocean environments, the velocity
of range
shifts for marine taxa exceeds those reported for terrestrial species.
The team's findings, published in Nature journal Scientific Reports, confirmed the connection in past climate
warming, the Pacific
Ocean's temperature
shifts and long episodes
of drought in California.
El Niños like this one have the ability to
shift weather patterns on a global basis and in general send a surge
of extra heat into the atmosphere from the
warmer - than - normal tropical Pacific
Ocean.
Other aspects
of global
warming's broad footprint on the world's ecosystems include changes in the abundance
of more than 80 percent
of the thousands
of species included in population studies; major poleward
shifts in living ranges as
warm regions become hot, and cold regions become
warmer; major increases (in the south) and decreases (in the north)
of the abundance
of plankton, which forms the critical base
of the
ocean's food chain; the transformation
of previously innocuous insect species like the Aspen leaf miner into pests that have damaged millions
of acres
of forest; and an increase in the range and abundance
of human pathogens like the cholera - causing bacteria Vibrio, the mosquito - borne dengue virus, and the ticks that carry Lyme disease - causing bacteria.
Yes, the simple term «global
warming» doesn't convey all the complexities
of what can happen as that
warming causes air and
ocean currents to
shift, but climate change / disruption provides even less information.
We have had lengthy heating phase caused by a spurt
of insolation, now we have had a big El Nino, a subsequent
shift to La Nina and the resulting
warm currents moving up the the Western Pacific, causing
warming polar
oceans and changes in atmospheric water vapor content.
In the Arctic, the tipping points identified in the new report, published on Friday, include: growth in vegetation on tundra, which replaces reflective snow and ice with darker vegetation, thus absorbing more heat; higher releases
of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from the tundra as it
warms;
shifts in snow distribution that
warm the
ocean, resulting in altered climate patterns as far away as Asia, where the monsoon could be effected; and the collapse
of some key Arctic fisheries, with knock - on effects on
ocean ecosystems around the globe.»
«New scientific evidence that the world's
oceans...
warmed significantly...
ocean energy is the primary cause
of extreme climate events... increasing the number
of insurance - relevant hazards... a near irreversible
shift... even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped,
ocean temperatures would keep rising.»
DK12 used
ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters
of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate
of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe
of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods
of «climate
shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount
of global
warming in response to a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
In his recently published study in the journal Nature, Temperatures blown off course, he explains how unprecedented trade winds have
shifted heat into the
ocean thermocline - between 100 metres and 300 metres - and that this is the primary cause
of the global
warming pause.
On the other hand, the actual LOD
shifts could cause enough
of a perturbation to the
ocean's circulating patterns to produce
warming responses.
Previous large natural oscillations are important to examine: however, 1) our data isn't as good with regards to external forcings or to historical temperatures, making attribution more difficult, 2) to the extent that we have solar and volcanic data, and paleoclimate temperature records, they are indeed fairly consistent with each other within their respective uncertainties, and 3) most mechanisms
of internal variability would have different fingerprints: eg,
shifting of warmth from the
oceans to the atmosphere (but we see
warming in both), or simultaneous
warming of the troposphere and stratosphere, or
shifts in global temperature associated with major
ocean current
shifts which for the most part haven't been seen.
El Niño is the name assigned when
shifting trade winds over the Pacific
Ocean give rise to
warmer water temperatures further east, fomenting stormy conditions in parts
of the Americas and concomitant droughts in parts
of Asia and Australia.
The surface
of the
oceans are always
warmer than the depths
of the
oceans > If you change the mixing efficiency, by
shifting atmospheric circulations with solar precessional cycle for example, the mixing efficiency changes and the regions where precipitation falls changes.
Parts
of North America and Europe may cool naturally over the next decade, as
shifting ocean currents temporarily blunt the global -
warming effect caused by mankind, Germany's Leibniz Institute
of Marine Sciences said.
Previous research has shown that global
warming will cause changes in
ocean temperatures, sea ice extent, salinity, and oxygen levels, among other impacts, that are likely to lead to significant
shifts in the distribution range and productivity
of marine species, the study notes.
Previous research has shown that global
warming will cause changes in
ocean temperatures, sea ice extent, salinity, and oxygen levels, among other impacts, that are likely to lead to
shifts in the range and productivity
of marine species.
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «on a timescale
of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and
warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure
of the subsurface
ocean, variability in the strength
of the equatorial easterly trade winds,
shifts in the position
of atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts
of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
By examining the spatial pattern
of both types
of climate variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic global
warming signal was relatively spatially uniform over the tropical
oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO
shift in the 1990s consisted
of warming in the tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing sea surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
51 Fig. 20 - 14, p. 481 Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal)
Shift from coal to natural gas Improve energy efficiency
Shift to renewable energy resources Transfer energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to developing countries Reduce deforestation Use more sustainable agriculture and forestry Limit urban sprawl Reduce poverty Slow population growth Remove CO 2 from smoke stack and vehicle emissions Store (sequester) CO2 by planting trees Sequester CO 2 deep underground Sequester CO 2 in soil by using no - till cultivation and taking cropland out
of production Sequester CO 2 in the deep
ocean Repair leaky natural gas pipelines and facilities Use animal feeds that reduce CH 4 emissions by belching cows Solutions Global
Warming PreventionCleanup
Shifting large volumes of air towards the poles increases radiation of energy to space thus neutralising any warming of the air and shifting large volumes of air towards the equator draws heat from sunshine and oceans thus neutralising any cooling of
Shifting large volumes
of air towards the poles increases radiation
of energy to space thus neutralising any
warming of the air and
shifting large volumes of air towards the equator draws heat from sunshine and oceans thus neutralising any cooling of
shifting large volumes
of air towards the equator draws heat from sunshine and
oceans thus neutralising any cooling
of the air.
He and colleagues recently tried to calculate the possible dates at which local climates could
shift inexorably in different parts
of the world, and tried also to build a picture
of how
ocean warming and acidification would affect incomes everywhere.
The unusually high sea ice surface temperatures reflect a
shift in
ocean circulation, enhancing the import of warm, Atlantic - derived waters into the Arctic O
ocean circulation, enhancing the import
of warm, Atlantic - derived waters into the Arctic
OceanOcean.
In 1976/77 the surface temperature
of a vast area
of the Pacific
Ocean abruptly
warmed by several degrees as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
shifted from «cool phase» to «
warm phase».
Posted in Development and Climate Change, Global
Warming, Research Comments Off on Previous Climatic
Shifts Deprived
Oceans of Oxygen
The pre-Holocene climate
shifts seem to be well accounted for by dynamics
of glacial meltoff, freshwater discharge, and the impact on the
ocean circulation... all
of which is less
of an issue in an initially
warm climate, and the AR5 generation models give no indication that the overturning circulation will be significantly impacted over the coming century.
If some
of the
ocean heat uptake during the last 20 years has
shifted from the shallow and
warm parts to the deeper and colder parts this would reduce the total thermal expansion even if the total heat flux into the
oceans remained the same.
In 2009, they continue to examine the coupling
of ocean cycles, stressing «caution that the
shifts described here are presumably superimposed upon a long term
warming trend due to anthropogenic forcing» (Swanson & Tsonis 2009).
The Senate resolution recognized that global
warming could
shift fish stocks toward the central Arctic
Ocean, and that dwindling sea ice would open the door to exploitation
of the region.