Co-author Nerilie Abram, from the Australian National University, said: «In order to better understand climate change in Antarctica, we need continued climate measurements in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean, and extension of
these short observational records with past climate reconstructions and climate modelling.»
Co-author of the study Professor Ian Hall, from the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: «Our results highlight the challenge of basing our understanding of the climate system on generally
short observational records.
But from an email conversation with Francis, Vavrus, and several other atmospheric scientists this week, it became clear that there may be more questions than answers at this point, given the large amount of natural variability that affects winter weather patterns, and the very
short observational record of how the atmosphere responded to extreme losses of sea ice (only five winters of records since 2007).
While the statistics of 30 - year (or longer) NAO trends and associated surface climate impacts can not be reliably determined from
the short observational record, we have made use of a simple relationship between the statistics of trends of any length and the statistics of the interannual variability, provided the time series is Gaussian (Thompson et al. 2015).
The study of solar cycles and their climatic effect is hampered by a very
short observational record (~ 400 years), an inadequate understanding of the physical causes that might produce centennial to millennial changes in solar activity, and an inadequate knowledge of how such changes produce their climatic effect.
But from an email conversation with Francis, Vavrus, and several other atmospheric scientists this week, it became clear that there may be more questions than answers at this point, given the large amount of natural variability that affects winter weather patterns, and the very
short observational record of how the atmosphere responded to extreme losses of sea ice (only five winters of records since 2007).
Not exact matches
Breakthrough Listen allotted tens of hours of
observational time on the Green Bank Telescope to
recording radio emissions from FRB 121102, and last August 26 detected 15 bursts over a relatively
short period of five hours.
Since our
observational record is far to
short to have documented any D - O event previously, we could be «blindsided» by the onset of such a phenomenon.
Given the
short length of the trustworthy oceanic
observational record, particularly in the deep ocean, the ocean response to multi-decadal and longer natural forcings is virtually unknown.
Steve, you write «c) The
observational record is still too
short to constrain climate sensitivity (in part because of lack of knowledge about some of the forcings), so weakening evidence from this
record doesn't change the result.»
However the mainstream media (worldwide) did not reveal that the same source also reported that in the Antarctic, the sea - ice extent there was at a
record high level within the same
short satellite
observational period.
Bova et al., 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071450/abstract «The
observational record of deep - ocean variability is
short, which makes it difficult to attribute the recent rise in deep ocean temperatures to anthropogenic forcing.
Finally, unlike precipitation, for which long and reliable historical
records exist in some parts of the world,
records for other aspects of weather are too
short to detect trends or contain
observational biases that render trends meaningless.
The more direct measure of global warming provided by measuring the energy content of the climate system avoids many of these problems, although the
observational record is
shorter and less complete (e.g. Church et al 2011).
«Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud
record» «Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models» «A net decrease in the Earth's cloud, aerosol, and surface 340 nm reflectivity during the past 33 yr (1979 — 2011)» «New
observational evidence for a positive cloud feedback that amplifies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» «Impact of dataset choice on calculations of the
short - term cloud feedback»
Given the
short period of the
records are the
observational estimates of the Hurst exponents stable enough to be used as a test for the models?
While its not entirely fair to remove a modeled event from the
record, it's also not at all fair to compare skill over such a
short time frame, when volcanic and other effectively random events can skew either path (
observational or modeled) so greatly.
Although there exist
observational estimates of the SAMOC, the decadal and multi-decadal variability of the SAMOC and its influence on climate and weather can not be assessed due to its
short temporal
record.