Since the science and theory linking global warming in the short term is much weaker than the underlying rationale for long - term global warning, arguing
about short term trends is dangerous.
While short term trends are generally treated with a suitable level of caution by specialists in the field, they feature significantly in the public discourse on climate change.
Some traders buy stock with the intent of holding for years while others will buy for
shorter term trends such as weeks to months.
The original motivation for the project came from the fact that different versions of the temperature record were showing substantially
different short term trends.
It is interesting to apply the same analysis to a current global (land - ocean) temperature record to determine
whether short term trends in the global data can be equally misleading.
While the errors are small in absolute terms and do not affect the big picture, they are enough to distort the noisy
short term trends which have dominated the public discourse on climate change.
Nial looks at identifying
short term trends using counter-trend movements to enter within the trends, and price action signals to enter.
In this manner, it (gas tax) would be adjusted to match the previous and
projected short term trends in ridership of public transporation (which is what we want), increases in gas mileage (which is also what we want), and fewer drivers; as boomers begin to retire in droves (which is what we've inherited).
Falling in line
with short term trends, the West made the largest contribution to national gains over the last year, posting annual price advances of 4.1 percent.
This is what gives me a good sense of
what short term trends are happening — how a promotion is working, how long the effect of the promotion works, and gives me a feel for whether it is time to bump up my promotion (for example, do a FB promotion, spend a little money to get a book featured on one of the inexpensive sites.
[Response:??? Internal variability in each GCM simulation is uncorrelated to internal variability in the real world and so for short periods (a couple of decades), that variability makes any comparison of
short term trends problematic.
The apparent convergence in
short term trends between HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP arises primarily from changes in the HadSST data over areas which already had coverage, not through addressing the global coverage issues.
December Quarterly Trends:
Short term trends hold steady with little growth across the nation and four regions.
And indeed in my first blog post on this I was careful to make the same qualification about
short term trends as you do in this current post, which I will repeat since you haven't acknowledged it:
Chris also addressed the common tactic of climate change skeptics to conflate climate and weather and cherry
pick short term trends that agree with their points.
Although short term trends can be misleading, like the 22 year run up from 1976 to 1998, the dramatic drop of global average temperature in 2008 may be indicative of a change in character of the climate.