Sentences with phrase «short term warming trend»

Statistical studies have debated the correlation between retreating Arctic ice and the negative NAO because it generates a confounding short term warming trend that is contradicted by the longer cooling trend suggested for the LIA as well as observed during the 1960s and 70s.

Not exact matches

We notice a short stretch of cool days and ignore the long - term global - warming trend.

Observations of upper ocean heat show some short term cooling but measurements to greater depths (down to 2000 metres) show a steady warming trend: However, the ocean cooling myth does seem to be widespread so I'll shortly update this page to clarify the issue.

But our main point does not depend on that and is robust: with any model and any reasonable data - derived forcing, the observed 20th Century warming trend can only be explained by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, while other factors can explain the shorter - term variations around this trend.

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) showed that when we filter out the short - term effects of the sun, volcanoes, and El Niño cycles, the underlying man - made global warming trend becomes even more clear (Figure 3).

The aforementioned Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) found a 0.16 °C per decade warming trend since 1979 after filtering out the short - term noise.

(1) The warm sea surface temperatures are not just some short - term anomaly but are part of a long - term observed warming trend, in which ocean temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than global average temperatures.

Using that relationship for 2016 predicts a warming above the long - term trend of 0.14 degrees Celsius and, when the short - and long - term predictions are combined, gives 1.16 degrees Celsius (plus or minus 0.13 degrees Celsius, with 95 percent confidence) net warming above the late - 19th century baseline.

This animation shows how the same temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long - term global surface air warming trend of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the trend is dominated by short - term noise in the data (blue steps).

Mr. Trenberth was lamenting the inadequacy of observing systems to fully monitor warming trends in the deep ocean and other aspects of the short - term variations that always occur, together with the long - term human - induced warming trend.

The main point is that just as surface temperatures has experienced periods of short term cooling during long term global warming, similarly the ocean shows short term variability during a long term warming trend.

Here, modern warming trend is compared to both shorter - term events as well as long - term interglacial trends.

Since the science and theory linking global warming in the short term is much weaker than the underlying rationale for long - term global warning, arguing about short term trends is dangerous.

If it hadn't been for that relatively short - term trend, no one would even be talking about global warming today, because there is nothing alarming about the very modest warming we've experienced since.

One advantage of the theory that there has been a warming trend occasionally obscured in the short term by natural variability is that we have a mechanism that explains why there should be a warming trend (CO2) and mechanisms for explaining the variability (IIRC ENSO is responsible for quite a lot of it).

Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short - term cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long graph of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.

Therefore those short term factors are what has affected the last ten years, causing the nonsignificant apparent 10 year decrease in the magnitude of the overall 30 year warming trend.

And when the Gore Minimum brings another short term cooling trend, how do you propose explaining that so people understand the difference between short term cooling, long term warming, and the need to do something?

Large variability reduces the number of new records — which is why the satellite series of global mean temperature have fewer expected records than the surface data, despite showing practically the same global warming trend: they have more short - term variability.

Strong short - term variability would mean that even in a warming trend there would be more cool years than for the same trend with less variability, and vice-versa for cooling trends.

This correction is naturally small (less than a tenth of a degree) and hardly changes the long - term trend of global warming — but if you look deeper into shorter periods of time, it can make a noticeable difference.

A valuable short paper that has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required) makes a strong case against presenting any argument about human - driven global warming that's based on short - term trends (a decade or so).

But our main point does not depend on that and is robust: with any model and any reasonable data - derived forcing, the observed 20th Century warming trend can only be explained by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, while other factors can explain the shorter - term variations around this trend.

Honestly, anybody who claims that «there has been global cooling or that global warming has halted since 2000 (or whatever)» really does not understand climatic trends nor the difference between a long - term underlying trend vs. short - term fluctuations which have a larger magnitude (in both directions) than the trend.

The public debate about the alleged «warming pause» was misguided from the outset, because far too much was read into a cherry - picked short - term trend.

«The short - term wiggles make it tough to detect trends in ocean warming, but the underlying trajectory appears unchanged, it seems.»

In my YouTube interview with Dr. Hansen, he discusses how the public remains attuned mainly to anomalies on short time scales — cold or warm — and misses the point that it is the long - term trend that he and other experts say will transform the planet, but at a pace invisible day to day.

This fast - forward moment in human history (a k a «the great acceleration «-RRB- is characterized by a mix of clarity on long - term trends (greenhouse gases and warming; plunging poverty and rising income inequality; declining deaths in conflict...) and short - term turbulence and unpredictability, with impacts amplified by global interconnectedness.

Vicky Pope, a meteorologist in England's climate and meteorology office, has a remarkable op - ed in the Guardian warning that scientists, the media and campaigners of all stripes who use short - term trends in weather or sea ice to make points are misleading the public about global warming.

But as cogently interpreted by the physicist and climate expert Dr. Joseph Romm of the liberal Center for American Progress, «Latif has NOT predicted a cooling trend — or a «decades - long deep freeze» — but rather a short - time span where human - caused warming might be partly offset by ocean cycles, staying at current record levels, but then followed by «accelerated» warming where you catch up to the long - term human - caused trend.

Although the rate of warming of surface air and lower troposphere temperatures appear to have slowed over the past few years, the same could be said at any virtually any point in time by cherrypicking short - term noise and ignoring the long - term trend (Figure 2).

Increasing CO2 causes a gradual long - term warming trend which is smaller than the short - term variations.

It was well known — and in fact had been demonstrated most recently in an article in Nature — that, while el nino, along with volcanic eruptions, did explain a fair amoount of the short - term year - to - year variability in global temperatures, it could not accouny for the warming trend., Had McLean et al somehow discovered something that had eluded the entire research community fir decades?

Although these questions still need to be resolved through future research, the underlying global warming trend remains, and the short - term dampening won't last forever.

Now if someone were to dsay, as Judith clearly did not although she had many opportunities to do so, that «concurrent with warming of our oceans there has been a relatively short - term hiatus in the trend of significant increase in global surface temperatures,» then I would not have a problem with the logic.

I can see how it might be reconciled with a relatively short - term «hiatus» (if you must) in the trend of significant increase in surface temperatures, but not with a «hiatus in warming.»

First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence of an underlying long - term warming trend, because of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.

Surely, there's got to be some other global warming indicator that shows a long - term global warming trend...» Remarkably, aside from the weather station record estimates, almost all of the so - called «global warming indicators» are short - term estimates...

I hope you realize how stupid the supposition that coral bleaching doesn't happen without global warming and that corals can deal with long and short term variations, but not a modest trend is.

In part, this reflects the long - term trend towards global warming; however, it also reflects exceptional short - term weather conditions present during this period.

As Figure 1 shows, the UAH warming trend over the past decade is indeed both positive and statistically significant once these three short - term effects are filtered out.

But I think you are stretching when you try to use this analysis to try to attribute the recent pause to short term variation and make the claim that a long term warming trend continues unabated underneath.

Your conclusion seems to be that a warming trend continues unabated and the pause is purely due to short term variation.

The animation below shows how the same temperature data that is used to determine the long - term global warming trend can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling trend simply because the endpoints are chosen to mislead.

Or even our illustrious host, who testifies before Congress that because there has been a short - term flattening out of a longer term trend of rising increase in temps, therefore there is a «hiatus» in «global warming?»

PA November 16, 2015 at 7:44 pm If we don't do anything about global warming until 2100 we will have enough instrumental data to compute the CO2 forcing accurately, and to determine if the 90s were a short term trend.

If you mean to use the unqualified phrase «natural variability» to refer to short - term inter-annual variability — something that a 5 year running mean almost completely obliterates — then you can't credit * this * variability as a natural contribution to the recent inter-decadal warming trend.

If we don't do anything about global warming until 2100 we will have enough instrumental data to compute the CO2 forcing accurately, and to determine if the 90s were a short term trend.

Temperatures follow a 800 — 900 year long cycle (Roman Warming Period, Mediveial Warming Period, Modern Warming Period) with a shorter 60 - 70 year cycle superimposed on that long term trend.

Any «data» prior to 2003 is next to worthless, so all you've got now is a «short term blip» from 2003 to today — and the folks have had to «correct» the ARGO data to change a slight cooling trend (2003 - 2008) to a slight warming trend (2003 - 2012).