While the Fed has verbally committed to a shallow and
short tightening cycle, interest rates are still likely to rise.
Not exact matches
You could make the argument while their was less
short - term volatility at the time, the greater long term systemic instability occurred after after the late 90's and 04 - 2006
tightening cycle.
In previous episodes, long yields tended to rise in the early stages of a
tightening cycle at least as much as the rise in
short rates, reflecting inflation concerns.
When the Fed does get closer to its dot - plot
tightening cycle for
short - term interest rates, I'll be there backing up the truck.
One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed
tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of
short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly with fed funds.
Fed
tightening cycles often start with a small explosion where
short - dated financing for thinly capitalized speculators evaporates, because of the anticipation of higher financing rates.
One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed
tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of
short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly with fed funds.