ETFs that are
short volatility futures are up around 75 % for the first six months of 2017 and about 220 % for the trailing year — an astonishing amount.
The danger is that the multi-trillion-dollar
short volatility trade, in all its forms, will contribute to a violent feedback loop of higher volatility resulting in a hyper - crash.
That is true, but the bigger story is that retail investors (and professionals, too) came in and crushed volatility in a major way by plowing money into
short volatility ETFs.
The ETNs use a systematic approach to investing in volatility index (VIX) futures that have a net long or net
short volatility position that varies based on changes in the market.
Further outflows resulted from index option gamma hedging, covering
of short volatility trades, and volatility targeting strategies.
It may be a little hard to understand, but the point is that people have been fleeing long volatility ETFs and piling
into short volatility ETFs, to the point where the public is no longer net long volatility, for the first time in history.
The
Global Short Volatility trade now represents an estimated $ 2 + trillion in financial engineering strategies and share buybacks that simultaneously exert influence over, and are influenced by, stock market volatility.
With an increase in volatility of volatility, risk management became more critical, especially if you are
net short volatility and / or you have a lot of exposure to the skew (dGamma / dSpot).
Essentially, they write unlevered out - of the money options on a variety of fixed income instruments,
go short volatility through residential mortgages, and try to take advantage of the carry trade through the cheap float that their strategies generate.
That said, when I see lots of activity from people
shorting volatility through exchange traded products in order to earn returns, it makes me wonder.
While worrisome, the fall in the major stock indexes was dwarfed by the rapid depreciation in
assets short volatility.
«May 17 and similar events bring substantial risk
for short volatility strategies,» Kolanovic wrote in a client note.
One big reason
why shorting volatility can be dangerous is the ever - present possibility that the market will make a unexpectedly sharp move, according to Marko Kolanovic, the firm's global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy.
And almost even more concerning than that — a lot of what's driving that low in volatility is people are
selling short volatility,» he said, implying that traders are betting that volatility could push even lower.
And then second, with regard to pricing and also in light of the
really short volatility we've seen in the commodity complex the last couple of weeks, should we be thinking of your pricing decisions as wholly decoupled from commodity price volatility at this point or is there flexibility to move within the ranges that you've outlined?
Retail investors have forgotten that being
short volatility means being exposed to unlimited losses, just like if you were naked short a call or a put.
You know, how do I get income in my portfolio, I'll use bait, I'll use some of the high - yield market, I'll
use short volatility, I'll create leverage in my portfolio through margin, et cetera.
As Hacked reported earlier this week, products that
short volatility shed billions this week, with the VelocityShares XIV ETN falling from $ 1.9 billion in assets to just $ 110 million.
Leading with gains of more than 53 % in five months is a complex volatility ETN, the VelocityShares VIX
Short Volatility Hedged ETN (XIVH).
2) A lot of trades over the past few years have been similar in nature, i.e. long risk assets
= short volatility.
One of the exchange - traded funds (ETFs) that investors are using to
short volatility contains an interesting clause that few investors seem to have noticed: If volatility jumps more than 80 %, the fund will liquidate with a net asset value of zero.
In contrast, the CBOE
Eurekahedge Short Volatility Index tracks the performance of underlying hedge fund managers who take a net short view on implied volatility with a goal of positive absolute return.
Central banks initiating «
short volatility positions» via QE have dampened long - term sovereign bond yields, which crowded out private capital and induced investors to «find something else to do» by buying more esoteric assets
Hickey contends the markets were ripe for a sell - off, which was sparked by converging factors including worries that rising wages will spur higher interest rates, pension fund re-balancing and
short volatility ETFs blowing up.
«It's created a very large exposure
of short volatility, and I think it's created a huge opportunity for actually owning volatility,» said Davis, Quadratic's managing partner and chief investment officer.
As with any mutual fund, there are risks involved with investing in the ABR Dynamic
Short Volatility Fund, including the possible loss of principal.
In our last series, Four Ways to
Go Short Volatility, we investigated how to create trading strategies using Nadex options which would profit from sideways movement in the market.
It's just the latest sign of confidence in
the short volatility trade, which has been one of the year's most popular and, by extension, crowded wagers.
Davis told CNBC in October that so many investors were
short volatility that a mild uptick in market uncertainty could lead to an exaggerated spike in volatility.
Now that doesn't mean that vol is going to spike hugely at any point, but it has the possibility to because so many investors are
short volatility.»
Even more so when people are selling «a lot of»
short volatility, which indicates they do expect nervousness to pick up in the future.
First, it was said to be all about wage inflation and rising bond yields, then it was a blowup in «
short volatility funds,» followed by trade - policy tensions and the threat of Big Tech regulation.
And
the short volatility ETFs have been accumulating more and more assets.