It's clear that weather stations on land
show average air temperatures are rising, and as a result, the frequency and severity of droughts and heat waves are increasing.
Not exact matches
The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections
showing that even with moderate climate warming,
air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on
average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state.
Pavements, including roads and parking lots, can cover one - third or more of a typical U.S. city, and previous studies have
shown that cool pavements can reduce a city's
average outside
air temperature by around 0.5 degrees Celsius, depending on the extent of deployment, city size, and city location.
The chart below, by Zack Labe at the University of California at Irvine,
shows how daily
average air temperatures over the Arctic (red line) have spent most of January and February substantially above
average (white line).
A map
showing the difference between
temperatures on Dec. 30 and
averages shows how a potent storm carried extremely warm
air over the North Pole.
«We
show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally
averaged surface
air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer - term warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point of view.»
And yet, when you do trends of global data you are
averaging air temperatures over intervals where the heat content is not continuous, and thus the trend that is the
average temperature does not
show the actual trend of the heat content.
Here's an illustration: the Figure below
shows what happens when the
average ± 4 Wm - 2 long - wave cloud forcing error of CMIP5 climate models [1], is propagated through a couple of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global
air temperature projections.
Figure 1
shows the change in the world's
air temperature averaged over all the land and ocean between 1975 and 2008.
Maps
show projected change in
average surface
air temperature in the later part of this century (2071 - 2099) relative to the later part of the last century (1970 - 1999) under a scenario that assumes substantial reductions in heat trapping gases (B1) and a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in global emissions (A2).
Internal variability can only account for ~ 0.3 °C change in
average global surface
air temperature at most over periods of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently
shown that it can not account for more than a small fraction of the global warming over the past century.
This latitude by height cross section
shows that for the Arctic as a whole,
air temperatures were above
average not just at and near the surface but through a deep layer of the atmosphere.
This plot
shows air temperature difference from
average for December 2016.
Following a warming trend early in the 20th century and mid-century cooling, surface
air temperatures in the Arctic have
shown a strong increase over the last few decades, warming at about twice the global
average.
They
showed that in the relatively cool winemaking areas of France and Switzerland, early harvests have always required both above -
average air temperatures and late - season drought.
The MITS reasons that one molecule moving at ten times the
average speed of
air molecules at sea level must be much hotter than
average, but this only
shows a lack of appreciation for how something like
temperature becomes meaningless without an abstraction on which to base it.
Daily 2 meter surface
air temperature for the Arctic
averaged above 80 ° N. Individual years from 1958 - 2017 are
shown by the sequential blue / purple to yellow lines.
Remember that post 9/11 contrail study, which supposedly
showed that the
average daily
temperature over the continental US suddenly widened in the 3 days after the September 11 terrorist attacks, when all commercial
air traffic was banned from American skies?
Note that the datasets
show different quantities; in the sea ice zone the GISTEMP, M10 and CHAPMAN data represent
air temperature (though CHAPMAN
air temperatures are inferred from SST input data); north of the sea ice edge the M10 and CHAPMAN data represent
air temperature while GISTEMP represents SST; MSU represents tropospheric -
average temperatures everywhere.
For example, Figure 1
shows that one GCM simulation underestimated the observed
average maximum surface
air temperature over the eastern US during five summers by 4.6 °C (8.3 °F).
[2] The dark red line in the top panel
shows the multi-model
average simulation of the 20th century global surface
air temperature.
Bottom, the top left US NAS panel
showing the global 20th century
air temperature hindcast, but now with uncertainty bars from propagated ± 4 Wm - 2 CMIP5
average cloud forcing error.
Five - year
averaging reduces differences among
temperature datasets,
showing that since the mid-1970s the global surface
air temperature has on
average increased by 0.1 °C every five to six years, although the rate of warming, viewed from a five - year perspective, has not been steady.
Air temperature at a height of two metres for 2017,
shown relative to its 1981 — 2010
average.
Greenland surface
air temperature trends, including at the Summit site, have not
shown persistent warming since 1930 in contrast to global
average surface
temperature (23).
All six individual runs with bias - adjusted SST (only the
average is
shown) give simulated land
air temperatures close to those observed so that internal model variability is small on decadal time - scales compared to the signal being sought.
Global
average air temperatures have increased relatively slowly since a high point in 1998 caused by the ocean phenomenon El Niño, but observations
show that heat is continuing to be trapped in increasing amounts by greenhouse gases, with over 90 % disappearing into the oceans.
Easterling and Wehner (2009)
showed that «the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally
averaged surface
air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer - term warming.»
Figure 6
shows the global land surface
air temperature plus sea surface
temperature anomalies (
average of GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and NCDC datasets, like The Escalator) before, during and after the 1997/98 El Niño.
This plot
shows Arctic
air temperature (at the 925 hPA level) difference from
average for June, July, and August 2016.