Multiple independent analyses of long - term temperature records
show average global temperatures rising as greenhouse gas concentrations have risen.
I still laugh out loud every time I see a graph purporting to
show the average global temperature to within a 1 / 10th of a degree for 1850.
Thermometer measurements
show the average global temperature has risen about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) since 1880.
«A graph
showing averaged global temperature and averaged catastrophe loss since 1970 was included in supplementary material rather than the IPCC report itself and was not itself published.
Not exact matches
His figures from 147 weather stations around the world
showed that
average global temperatures increased by 0.59 F from 1880 to 1935 — double what he had predicted based on increasing carbon dioxide.
Recent data from NASA and the UK's Hadley Centre
show that the
average global temperature rose by 0.33 °C between 1990 and 2006.
IPCC estimates, using the best and longest record available,
show that the difference between the 1986 - 2005
global average temperature value used in most of the Panel's projections, and pre-industrial
global average temperature, is 0.61 °C (0.55 - 0.67).
While the
temperature spiral
showed the
global average temperature, Lipponen's animation uses NASA data to
show individual countries separated by regions.
A U.N. Environment Program report released last week
showed that, taken together, the NDCs only account for a third of the necessary emissions reductions needed to keep
global average temperatures from heating 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels.
The results
show that even though there has been a slowdown in the warming of the
global average temperatures on the surface of Earth, the warming has continued strongly throughout the troposphere except for a very thin layer at around 14 - 15 km above the surface of Earth where it has warmed slightly less.
That graph is a jazzed - up graph of
average global temperatures since 2001 and
shows, essentially, no trend.
Statistical analysis of
average global temperatures between 1998 and 2013
shows that the slowdown in
global warming during this period is consistent with natural variations in
temperature, according to research by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.
Ice core data from the poles clearly
show dramatic swings in
average global temperatures, but researchers still don't know how local ecosystems reacted to the change.
The findings
show a slight but notable increase in that
average temperature, putting a dent in the idea that
global warming has slowed over the past 15 years, a trend highlighted in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Daily records from Manhattan's Central Park
show that
average monthly
temperatures already increased by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit from 1901 to 2000 — substantially more than the
global and U.S. trends.
To
show how close the world already is to surpassing those limits, Climate Central has been reanalyzing the
global temperature data by
averaging the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing them to a baseline closer to preindustrial times.
To
show how close the world already is to reaching that limit, Climate Central has been reanalyzing the
global temperature data each month,
averaging together the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing them to the
average from 1881 - 1910, a time period closer to preindustrial times.
Global temperatures averaged out annually can
show trends and shed light on natural climate variability.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and
show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface
temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also
showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
NASA's analysis, released yesterday during a press conference,
showed that 2017 is the second - hottest year on record and that the
average global temperature rose 0.9 °C (1.6 °F) above the 1951 — 1980
average.
Oman's and his colleagues» models
show that for two to three years after a regional nuclear war,
average global temperatures would drop by at least 2.25 degrees F (1.25 degrees C), and as much as 5.4 to 7.2 degrees F (3 to 4 degrees C) in the tropics, Europe, Asia and Alaska.
So if «you doubt many scientists would agree» with me, why would there be approaching 80 promenant scientists named as supporting this graphic IPCC AR5 Fig 12 - 05 which
shows projected
global average temperatures to AD2300 («relative to 1986 - 2005» so add 0.65 ºC for «relative to pre-industrial»)?
All I can say is that my funny internal feelings tell me that there is no hard data to
show that
average global temperatures, in 2007, are rising as fast as the GCMs predict.
A Fourier analysis would
show that
global temperature averages over the past 200 years would EXACTLY MATCH the sum of a finite number of sign waves far more accurately than your «sinusoidal curve superimposed on a linear trend.»
In my experimentation with techniques to «showcase» the robustness of the
global -
average temperature results, I found that it is also important to
show the actual number of stations reporting data for each year.
Instead, Shakun et al.
show that while CO2 lagged Antarctic
temperatures, they led the major changes in the
global average temperature (including many regions in the Northern Hemisphere and tropics).
With the anthropogenic perturbation likely to be around 2C and maybe more in the next 100 years (that's a
global average, it will be much more over northern hemisphere land where we actually live), there are simply no comparable sources of natural variability, and the historical record
shows that such
temperatures have not been approached in the last 2000 years.
If one postulates that the
global average surface
temperature tracks the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, possibly with some delay, then when the CO2 concentration continues to rise monotonically but the
global average surface
temperature shows fluctuations as a function of time with changes in slope (periods wherein it decreases), then you must throw the postulate away.
Anyway for the past 15 years the CRU record has
shown global temperatures to be between 0.3 to 0.6 deg above the 1961 - 90
average, so a reasonable guess might be the mid point, i.e. 0.45 deg.
It's an animated GIF file that
shows global -
average temperature results computed from randomly chosen rural stations, starting with one station and then incrementing one station at a time up to 40 stations.
The standstil of
global average temperature predicted by the «improved» modell compared to warming predicted from the «old» modell is nothing that happens in the future, it should have happened (but did not happen) in the past, from 1985 to 1999: The «improved» modell (green graph)
shows that the
global average temperature did not change from 1985 (= mean 1980 - 1990) to 1999 (= mean 1994 to 2004).
In a paper circulated with the anti-Kyoto «Oregon Petition,» Robinson et al. («Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,» 1998) reproduced K4B but (1) omitted Station S data, (2) incorrectly stated that the time series ended in 1975, (3) conflated Sargasso Sea data with
global temperature, and (4) falsely claimed that Keigwin
showed global temperatures «are still a little below the
average for the past 3,000 years.»
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with
global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios
shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.
And yet, when you do trends of
global data you are
averaging air
temperatures over intervals where the heat content is not continuous, and thus the trend that is the
average temperature does not
show the actual trend of the heat content.
The researchers used a climate - vegetation model that
showed (like several similar studies) a clear increase in Amazonian drought following a
global average temperature rise — leading to a large - scale die - back of rainforest, switching to grassland and savanna climate suitability.
The HadCRUT4 dataset, compiled from many thousands of
temperature measurements taken across the globe, from all continents and all oceans, is used to estimate
global temperature,
shows that 2017 was 0.99 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, taken as the
average over the period 1850 - 1900, and 0.38 ± 0.1 °C above the 1981 - 2010
average.
Figure 1: If climate skeptics are right about climate sensitivity (green), then
global average temperature increases will be more moderate this century,
shown here for RCP6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right).
The Amazon is referred to as a climate tipping point because research
shows following a 21st century
global average temperature rise most of the Amazon basin may dry out, leading to a massive biome shift — accompanied by many gigatonnes of extra CO2 emissions and almost unimaginable biodiversity loss, placing the cascading Anthropocene Extinction in top gear.
The hottest topic in climate research is the observation that
global average surface
temperature, as well as satellite observations of
temperatures in the atmosphere, has
shown little or no warming during the 21st century.
If climate skeptics are right about climate sensitivity (green), then
global average temperature increases will be more moderate this century,
shown here for RCP6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right).
World Meteorological Organization also confirmed 2017 as being among the three warmest years, and the warmest year without an El Niño, by consolidating the five leading international datasets, including HadCRUT4, which
showed that overall the
global average surface
temperature in 2017 was approximately 1.1 ° Celsius above the pre-industrial era.
The
global mean
temperature difference is
shown for the time period 1900 to 2100 for the IPCC A2 emissions scenario (relative to zero for the
average temperature during the years 1961 to 1990).
My understanding of the viewpoint of the majority of experts in related fields is that analysis
shows that relative to 50 years ago, and the LIA, and the MWP,
average global temperatures are warmer, and increasing in warmth at an anomalous rate than indicated by the data on previous time periods, including the MWP.
The right - hand panel
shows ranges of
global average temperature change above pre-industrial, using (i) «best estimate» climate sensitivity of 3 °C (black line in middle of shaded area), (ii) upper bound of likely range of climate sensitivity of 4.5 °C (red line at top of shaded area)(iii) lower bound of likely range of climate sensitivity of 2 °C (blue line at bottom of shaded area).
Here's an illustration: the Figure below
shows what happens when the
average ± 4 Wm - 2 long - wave cloud forcing error of CMIP5 climate models [1], is propagated through a couple of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4)
global air
temperature projections.
Little was agreed to curb greenhouse gas emissions and the latest modelling, carried out by the Climate Action Tracker consortium
shows global averages temperatures are still set to rise by at least 3 °C [continue reading...]
The
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4
global surface
temperature data sets
shows a 0.08 °C warming from 2000 through 2011 (Figures 1 and 3).
Figure A below, which graphs the
global annual
average temperature from 1861 to the present, does indeed seem to
show a warming trend.1 But such data must be interpreted carefully.
Monthly and 12 - month
average global temperature development,
showing (with only December data still missing) 2017 will likely rank as the third hottest year on record, despite a developing La Niña.