That it is possible to construct a metric that doesn't
show regional warming in a certain roughly specified region on a certain unspecified time scale with a certain unspecified statistical technique in no way contradicts the assertion that the balance of observational evidence shows unusual recent global warming, in first order agreement with theoretical, computational, and paleoclimate evidence.
I see no contradiction between CET being correlated with global temperature and CET
showing regional warming attributable to local industry.
Not exact matches
The study also
showed that the effect was much larger on a
regional scale, counteracting possibly up to 30 % of
warming in more rural, forested areas where anthropogenic emissions of aerosols were much lower in comparison to the natural aerosols.
While a strong El Niño and other climate patterns are playing a role in
regional and global temperatures, the vast majority of the excess heat this year comes from manmade global
warming, a Climate Central analysis
showed.
However, there are various other plausible explanations, for example: — changes in US temperatures since the 1930s / 1940s
show regional variation within the overall
warming trend at those latitudes; — actually I'm struggling to think of any others, apart from inaccuracies in the US temperature record but these have tended to point the other way.
Did Briffa perhaps choose those records (as alleged) which
showed warming b / c that is indeed what the
regional climate was doing in the 20th century?
Although globally averaged annual temperatures
warmed about 1 deg F since the early 1900s (viewed as rapid by paleoclimatologists and geologists),
regional climate station annual temperatures in northern Minnesota
show warming by several degrees F since the early 1900s.
Using (i) a state - of - the - art global climate model and (ii) a low - order energy balance model, we
show that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of
regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface
warming at any given time.
Pepin, Osakis and Clear had huge anomalies that year, and estimates of
regional temperature
show a very
warm winter that has only recently been matched.
Arctic nations have a unique responsibility to
show global leadership in reducing black carbon to slow
regional warming and melting by taking action to reduce black carbon.
Additionally, evidence
shows that this drought was part of a larger
regional warming and drying trend — one that doesn't correspond to natural climate variability but does to the global rise in greenhouse gases.
For example, Kosaka and Xie
showed than when the El Niño - related changes in Pacific ocean temperature are entered into a model, it not only reproduced the global surface
warming over the past 15 years but it also accurately reproduced
regional and seasonal changes in surface temperatures.
My bottom line is that while the global climate models, when run with added CO2 and other greenhouse gases,
show that this is a
warming effect, they are inadequate tools to assess the consequences of these human climate forcings on the
regional and local scale.
In addition, the pattern of sea surface temperatures at low latitudes is extremely important for
regional climate variations (
shown, for example, by the increased likelihood of heavy winter rainfall in California when the eastern tropical Pacific
warms in El Niño events).
The authors
show how
regional short - term temperature fluctuations help explain the «gullibility» with which some people have been «so readily convinced of a false conclusion» that the planet has stopped
warming.
But in fact what the actual surface measurements
show (and not the artificial trash GAT's), night time cooling matches day time
warming, with
regional disturbances in daily min temp.
They
show that CCS
warm events are associated with a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a
regional pattern of poleward coastal wind anomalies.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans
warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some
regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually
show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for
regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very
warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
Coupled simulations, using six different models to determine the ocean biological response to climate
warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050 (Sarmiento et al., 2004),
showed global increases in primary production of 0.7 to 8.1 %, but with large
regional differences, which are described in Chapter 4.
Some of this climate change may be due to the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels over the past century, although an inspection of
regional climate data
shows most of the Sierra
warming occurred from 1910 through the early 1930s, long before the major emissions.
«The reality of urban
warming on local and small
regional scales is not questioed by this work; it is the impact of urban
warming on estimates of global and large
regional trends that is
shown to be small.»
Stenchikov et al. (2006)
showed that models have difficulty in capturing the
regional response of the climate system (ao) to Volcanic singularities specifically the temperature regime in eurasia in the Giss model, or in retrodiction ie the Krakatoa problem why was it so
warm, thus there is no uniqueness theorem for volcanics.
Figure 3
shows the
regional patterns of the
warming that have occurred over the full 20th century, as well as for three component time periods.
The Arctic has historically
shown regional variations in climate, with one region
warmer than normal while another region was cooler, and then after a while flipping to the opposite conditions.
Thus it > couldn't / shouldn't be dismissed in the same way > as the MWP, as a period of disparate
regional > behaviour, albeit with more records
showing >
warming than cooling.
While we have not evaluated all of the feedback mechanisms and internal and external forcing factors involved, we have
shown evidence that the West Antarctic
warming is consistent with the
regional decline of sea ice in the ABS and with the atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Oceans.
Here we use a stacked temperature record to
show an absence of
regional warming since the late 1990s.
Mi Cro August 30, 2014 at 2:53 pm Clive, that's all fine and dandy, except those
warming trends did not take place globally, they were
regional trends.............................. We are finalising an analysis for Australia that
shows of the claimed 1 deg C or so of
warming since 1900, the maximum temperature change based on unadjusted data is half that or less, so 0.45 degrees for the century in the USA would fall neatly in the range we estimate for Australia.
«Marked periods like the
warming anomaly in the Middle Ages or the small ice age come up on a
regional level but don't
show a single global picture,» said Heinz Wanner, the study's lead researcher.
While surface temperature
show a significant
warming over western Himalayas in the last few decades, the observed
regional precipitation changes are irregular and not spatially coherent.
The broader Hemispheric and
regional picture
shows that
warm events occurring during the two most recent winters were much more extreme than the cold outbreaks and are consistent with a long ‐ term and accelerating
warming trend.
The North Atlantic is believe to have been
warmer during the MWP, but global climate reconstructions
show that the rest of the world was likely cooler during the same period, meaning that the MWP was a
regional climate change rather than a global one.
However, calculations
showed that this subtle effect should cause no more than a small
regional warming.
The study also
showed that the effect was much larger on a
regional scale, counteracting possibly up to 30 % of
warming in more rural, forested areas where anthropogenic emissions of aerosols were much lower in comparison to the natural aerosols.