Not exact matches
U.S. data on Monday
showed that consumer prices accelerated in the year to March, with a
measure of underlying
inflation surging to near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target as last year's weak readings dropped out of the calculation.
That
measure shows that underlying
inflation is moving up despite what's happening in the CPI.
The figure below
shows two series of market - derived
inflation expectations, both of which turn up pretty sharply towards the end (before the election, but the daily
measures show a spike afterwards).
Inflation as
measured by the core personal consumption expenditures price index jumped to 1.5 percent in the first quarter, government figures
showed on Thursday, a jump from 0.4 percent the prior quarter.
Over the three years to June 1993,
inflation as
measured by the CPI averaged around 2 per cent a year; the last three - year period to
show such a low
inflation rate was in the early 1960s.
The figure
shows that in the first quarter of 2017, forecasters expected that 2018 CPI would be running at 2.3 percent, consistent with the Fed's 2 percent
inflation target using the PCE
measure of
inflation.
Figure 7
shows the Blue Chip consensus forecast for
inflation as
measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2018.
But there are even more ways to
measure inflation, and some
show it being higher than the UIG.
The Melbourne Institute monthly
inflation gauge on Monday
showed prices falling by 0.2 per cent in May, the second
inflation measure to register deflation.
However, increased
inflation pressures evident in upstream
measures are starting to
show up at the consumer level in some countries, including Singapore and China.
Survey - based
measures of
inflation expectations have
shown divergent trends in recent months.
Statistics Canada data this morning
showed that headline
inflation in Canada slowed last month, while
measures of underlying prices strengthened to their highest level in -LSB-...]
Another report earlier this week
showed that the Fed's preferred
measure of
inflation accelerated to its highest in more than a year in March, while data last week
showed that wages grew at their fastest pace in in eleven years in the first quarter.
This
measure has typically been more volatile than other underlying
measures, for example
showing a higher peak in
inflation (adjusted for the effects of tax changes) in 2001.
Our econometric analysis
shows that global factors play a dominant role in driving
inflation at the individual country level; our
measure of the global output gap has begun to increase, and should rise further as emerging markets recover, exerting upward pressure on
inflation rates.
Inflation data published last week showed the headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation index hit a 2 per cent annual pace in the year to March and the Fed's preferred underlying measure, the core PCE which excludes volatile energy and food items, rose to 1.9
Inflation data published last week
showed the headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
inflation index hit a 2 per cent annual pace in the year to March and the Fed's preferred underlying measure, the core PCE which excludes volatile energy and food items, rose to 1.9
inflation index hit a 2 per cent annual pace in the year to March and the Fed's preferred underlying
measure, the core PCE which excludes volatile energy and food items, rose to 1.9 per cent.
The various
measures of underlying
inflation recorded slightly lower outcomes in the quarter, although on a year - ended basis they
show inflation at a similar rate to the headline
measure (Table 14; Graph 71).
Right now, the Fed's preferred
measure of
inflation — the deflator on personal consumption expenditures ---- is less than 2 percent, with the most recent estimate
showing an annual increase of 1.5 percent.
FIGURE 1
shows a noticeable uptick in Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 1 the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) preferred
inflation measure, over the last six months.
It
measures the changing prices of everyday household goods and services like food and energy bills, and
shows how
inflation rises over the years.
The blue dotted line
shows the 1.5 % rate of
inflation as
measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI, as of 10/31/2016).
The charts
show the year - over-year change in various
inflation measures as well as
measures of expected
inflation based on the University of Michigan Survey Research Center and the yields on five - year treasuries and TIPS.
As
shown in Exhibit 2, the S&P Real Assets Index has provided relatively strong
inflation protection, with an
inflation beta of 4.46, as
measured by monthly and year - over-year returns of the index and the CPI, compared with 2.4 for the S&P 500 ® and the negligible
inflation protection of the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.