1 mm SLR is approx 1.2 e20J into ice melt 1 m SLR 1.2 e23J Balmaseda et al. (doi: 10.1002 / grl.50382)
show OHC above 2000m rising at approx 1e22 J / yr
The top right panel
shows the OHC perturbation for 0 — 275, > 275, and > 700 m depth in 1022 J where the 20 years running mean has been removed
Not exact matches
While the TOA observations
show far less agreement with the NODC and Hadley Centre
OHC data sets, after 2004 they demonstrate moderate agreement with PMEL / JPL / JIMAR data sets (as determined by statistical analysis).
You may claim my comments are veering «off topic», but I am supporting the use of
OHC as a metric and
showing how climate models get it wrong.
This plot
shows thermosteric sea level change over that period, which would strongly correlate with
OHC / ocean temperature, and this plot
shows surface temperature evolution.
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they
show very nicely the changes in the ocean heat content (
OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the
OHC has substantially increased in the deep ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalled.
According to the graphs he presents on his blog - o - site, in his favorite Case III version 0 - 50m
OHC has been dropping while Levitus
shows it rising.
What I have
shown in those posts is that the rise in
OHC from 1955 to present can be explained by natural factors that have resulted in upward shifts in
OHC, not a monotonous rise.
The entire
OHC content anomaly when converted from Joules back to temperature in the ocean is on the order of 0.09 C (I assume you can do the math and conversion, but if not let me know and I'll
show my work).
The five ensemble members of the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis
OHC for 0 — 700m and full - depth ocean are
shown, where they have been aligned for 1980 to 1985, in 1022 J.
Sidd @ # 30 But the
OHC graphs at your link
show a slope of 13.2 e21J per year from 1990 to 2008 plus you have an extra bit at greater depth (I suppose ~ 14e21J total).
So unless and until someone
shows that my argument in that post is wrong, I plan to continue to treat the
OHC figures as interesting, but purely anecdotal.
Ultimately our paper
shows that all three of the main conclusions in DK12 are faulty: the rate of
OHC increase has not slowed in recent years, there is no evidence for «climate shifts» in global heat content data, and the recent
OHC data do not support the conclusion that the net climate feedback is negative or that climate sensitivity is low.
The data also
show that failing to account for increases in deep
OHC is a problematic omission.
The
OHC graph
shows a slow warming of the ocean, which is a sign of the positive and sustained imbalance.
The
OHC integrates the radiative imbalance making it a much less noisy quantity than instantaneous fluxes you keep wanting to
show.
OHC follows changes in TOA radiant flux as
shown in the Wong et al 2006 paper — ocean / atmosphere heat transfer obviously occurs but the fundamental metric is at TOA.
If
OHC is increasing at about 0.7 W / m ^ 2 (for the top 2000 meters) and the SST is
showing an anomaly of 0.6 C, then the incoming heat is increasing at a rate of 2.3 W / m ^ 2.
Go ahead and
show us on any of the following: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
OHC Sea level Rise Rate Global Temperature Drought Incidence Hurricane Activity Tornado Activity Glacial Melting Like my mother use to tell me «Do something useful»
A comparison of the changes and fluctuations in the three observational climate indicators (SLR,
OHC, and GMST; Figure 2) clearly
shows that both
OHC and SLR are much better indicators of global warming than GMST.
Studies
show that taking the full ocean depth, ice melt, and other factors into account, Earth is estimated to have gained 0.40 ± 0.09 W m − 2 since 1960 and 0.72 W m − 2 since 1992 [Cheng et al., 2017]-- 18 % higher than for the top 2,000 - meter
OHC alone.
What this means is that
OHC before 2003 is essentially unreliable; Knox and Douglass confirmed this by
showing a correlation between
OHC, Fohc, and OLR, Ftoa; before 2003, the correlation between Fohc and Ftoa was poor, after 2003 it is good.
This
shows the consistency of the Wong et al TOA record with
OHC — as noted by IPCC s 3.4.4.1.
Loeb 2012
shows that ENSO is responsible for the interannual variability, but not the increase in
OHC over the last few decades.
So, which models are we talking about, and what values do they
show when it comes to hindcasting and forecasting
OHC, TOA net SW radiation, TOA net LW radiation and changing lapse rate?
The only two ocean basins with major increases in
OHC during the ARGO era are the South Atlantic and the Indian Oceans, while the North Atlantic, Arctic, and South Pacific Oceans
show significant declines in
OHC.
Since 1Q2004, the
OHC data
show a positive trend of +3.1 ZJ / yr for the 0 - 700 m region.
I have illustrated and document that there are multiyear aftereffects of ENSO events that cause the positive trends in SST and TLT anomalies outside of the tropical Pacific, and I have
shown that the rise in global
OHC, when broken down into logical ocean basin subsets, is dominated by natural variables.
Recent ocean heat content (
OHC) calculations have
shown a dramatic shift during the period 2001 — 2003, which is nearly coincident with a major transition in the ocean observation network from a ship - based system to Argo floats.
Rob on the other hand
shows there is significant changes to
OHC from clouds.
I
showed that the height of the water column of the tropical Pacific reflected the same rise as the 1995/96
OHC, countering your inference that a pocket of warm water rose up from below the 700 meter depth in the tropical Pacific.
From the paper: Over the whole globe, the dominant spatial mode of variability in
OHC in the upper 300 m [as
shown by the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF), which explains the most variance], occurs mainly in the tropical Pacific and has the structure of ENSO variability (Fig. 4, A and B).
Figure 4, C and D,
shows that the dominant
OHC variability below 300 m occurs mainly in the Atlantic basin and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region.
In contrast, the observed data on
OHC show that most (far more than half) of the warming must have been forced, and excludes more than a minor role for internal variability.
Ocean Heat Content estimates produced by the ex-NODC at NCEI
show that
OHC anomalies in each quarter of 2015 were the highest on record for each quarter.
lolwot, where's the empirical evidence
showing that this is in fact the mechanism that's been responsible for the increase in global
OHC since 2001?
Denier sites use the NODC
OHC data as it
shows a mini-trend of cooling.
ARGO
showed ocean cooling but when that didn't jibe with
OHC datasets constructed without ARGO then the ARGO data was pencil whipped into agreement.
As you know, some contrarians / deniers are capitalizing on the fact that the recently adjusted NODC 0 - 700m
OHC data have
shown a small negative slope since 2003 or so (yes, it is not a stat.
Hence, the
OHC integrated down to 700 m
shows some slowdown, but the implication is that the missing heat is being deposited mainly in the region below 700 m depth.
However, the upper
OHC for the top 275 m
shows the same stasis as for the surface temperature (Fig. 7), in fact for this example the
OHC (0 — 275 m) actually decreases.
The lower panel
shows the perturbation relative to mean from 2005 to 2015 in
OHC (O E) for layers 0 — 275, 0 — 700 m depth, and for the entire column to the bottom of the ocean in 1022 J.
Lynn, I find the best argument against any of the «pause, hiatus,» types is to
show a graph of ocean heat content — like NOAA's.0 to 700m or 0 to 2000 m
OHC products