This is just a brief note to point out that a few graphs that I have put together
showing Ocean Heat Content changes in recent decades had an incorrect scaling for the GISS model data.
Fig. 4 from Kouketsu et al. (2011)
shows ocean heat content changes from the 1990 ′ s to the 2000 ′ s. Note the different scales on the top and bottom panel.
Not exact matches
The purple lines in the graph below
show how the
heat content of the whole
ocean has
changed over the past five decades.
Contributions to the event arising from
changes in
ocean heat content were
shown to be negligible.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003
show a significant increasing trend in
ocean heat content.
Examination of the geographical distribution of the differences in 0 to 700 m
heat content between the 1977 — 1981 and 1965 — 1969 pentads and the 1986 — 1990 and 1977 — 1981 pentads
shows that the pattern of
heat content change has spatial scales of entire
ocean basins and is also found in similar analyses by Ishii et al. (2006).
Observed
changes in
ocean heat content have now been
shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global scale, and in individual
ocean basins.
The key observation here is the increase in
ocean heat content over the last half century (the figure below
shows three estimates of the
changes since 1955).
The
ocean heat content analysis by Barnett (and in other groups)
show that the
changes are most consistent with the GHGs becoming increasingly dominant over this time.
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they
show very nicely the
changes in the
ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased in the deep
ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalled.
Previous work by Barnett's group
showed that coupled models when forced with greenhouse gases did give
ocean heat content changes similar to that
shown in the data.
The chart
shows that starting in the late 1940's, we have been able to measure the
heat content of the top 2000 meters of
ocean accurately enough so that annual
changes in
ocean heat content of less than 1e22 joules can be detected and tracked.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003
show a significant increasing trend in
ocean heat content.
Since the IPCC's graph above up to 2003
shows that most of the energy from global warming is in the
oceans, to a first approximation,
Ocean Heat Content change since then is going to be close enough to the Total
Heat Content change.
The upper figure
shows changes in
ocean heat content since 1958, while the lower map
shows ocean heat content in 2017 relative to the average
ocean heat content between 1981 and 2010, with red areas
showing warmer
ocean heat content than over the past few decades and blue areas
showing cooler.
«Global net energy budget is
shown as a graph that takes account of net radiation received,
ocean heat content change, and other net energy
changes from melting sea ice, glaciers, etc..
The rate of warming as measured by
ocean heat content changes over the last 4 years
shows that we have DOUBLED the top - of - atmosphere energy imbalance from 0.6 watts per meter squared to 1.1 watts per meter squared in the last 7 years.
If it can be
shown that a
change in DSR puts more energy into the bulk
ocean than a similar
change in DLR then this implys that DLR is returned more quickly to space and therefore the earth's
heat content sensitivity would be less for DLR than DSR.
Here is a figure estimating
heat content changes for the decade from the 1990 ′ s to the 2000 ′ s
showing that the deepest layers of the
oceans have also warmed.
Balmaseda et al. (2013) suggested that
changes in the winds have resulted in a recent
heat accumulation in the deep sea that has masked the surface warming and that the
ocean heat content shows a steady increase.