Not exact matches
It
shows that the greatest threats to the UK come from periods of too much or too little water, increasing
average and extreme seasonal temperatures, and
rising sea levels.
The team found that results from the two methods roughly matched and
showed that Greenland is losing enough ice to contribute on
average 0.46 millimetres per year to global
sea -
level rise.
The first predications of coastal
sea level with warming of two degrees by 2040
show an
average rate of increase three times higher than the 20th century rate of
sea level rise.
Dr John Church of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research added: «The most recent research
showed that
sea level is
rising by 3 mm a year since 1993, a rate well above the 20th century
average.»
No adjustment was necessary for the
average 3 - millimeter - per - year
sea level rise between 1993 and 2010, the algorithm
showed.
When local observational data, scientific studies and engineering professionals all agree that current
sea level rise is at historical
average (albeit
showing a statistically insignificant decline) I think we can put off spending on further research until our conditions warrant.
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global
average temperature change, the upper ranges of
sea level rise for SRES scenarios
shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for
sea level rise.
Current
sea level rise underestimated: Satellites
show recent global
average sea level rise (3.4 millimeters per year over the past 15 years) to be around 80 percent above past I.P.C.C. predictions.
This decade - long satellite altimetry data set
shows that since 1993,
sea level has been
rising at a rate of around 3 mm yr — 1, significantly higher than the
average during the previous half century.
Data from satellite measurements
show that
sea levels have increased by about three inches on
average worldwide since 1992 suggesting that
sea levels are
rising more quickly than anticipated and faster than they did 50 years ago.
Boutrous pointed out that while global
sea levels are
rising on
average, some evidence
shows that
sea levels have fallen in specific regions, and coastal flooding in places like the San Francisco Bay Area is also a function of local conditions like land subsidence.
The
average rate of
sea -
level rise in the 20th century was 15 cm / century, but in the quarter - century since 1990 it has been 30 cm / century and is
showing signs of further acceleration in more recent measurements.
New estimates
show that
sea level rise is expected to hit the Golden State hard, with
levels rising by an
average of six inches, and possibly up to one foot by 2030 alone.
Tamino doesn't want to admit that there's been no detectable acceleration in the global
average rate of
sea -
level rise in response to ~ 2/3 century of steadily increasing CO2 emissions and
levels, but that's what the data unambiguously
shows.
So how does Mörner explain the global
sea level rise record, in which both satellite altimeters and tide gauges
show average global
sea level rise on the order of 3 mm per year (Figure 1)?
Obviously this conspiracy theory is utterly absurd, and is easily disproven by simply examining the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) published in 2001, two years before Mörner's accusation of falsified
sea level data, which
shows an approximately 10 to 15 mm
rise in
average global
sea level from 1993 to 1998 (Figure 3).
Accounting for the TOPEX - A instrumental correction for the first 6 years of the altimetry data set, these studies provided a revised global mean
sea level time series that slightly reduces the
average GMSL
rise over the altimetry era (from 3.3 mm / yr to 3.0 mm / yr) but
shows clear acceleration over 1993 - present.
[5] From 1950 to 2009, measurements
show an
average annual
rise in
sea level of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data
showing a
rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009, [6] a faster rate of increase than previously estimated.
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the extent of Arctic
sea ice at its summer minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the global
average upper ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (
shown relative to the 1955 — 2006
average), and in
sea -
level rise.
To take the IPCC's
average sea level rise of 38.5 cm (which, six years ago, it tipped at 48.5 cm) as a starting point, this would mean, according to some of the world's leading scientists, that Al Gore, who in his movie An Inconvenient Truth dramatically
shows what the worlds coastlines would look like were
sea levels to
rise by 6.1 m, is off by more than a factor of 15 times.
The exact speed with which these are going to contribute to
sea level rise is highly uncertain, the synthesis report says, but the best scientific estimate — based on observed correlation between global
average temperatures and
sea level rise over the past 120 years —
shows that by 2100 we will experience
sea level rise of one meter or more.
For sixty years, tide gauges have
shown that
sea level in the Chesapeake is
rising at twice the global
average rate and faster than elsewhere on the East Coast.
None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations
show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term
sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide
levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the
averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.
Multi-model
averages show that the temperature increases during 2090 - 2099 relative to 1980 - 1999 may range from 1.1 to 6.4 D and
sea level rise from 0.18 to 0.59 meters.
Some regions
show a
sea level rise substantially more than the global
average (in many cases of more than twice the
average), and others a
sea level fall (Table 11.15)(note that these figures do not include
sea level rise due to land ice changes).