Earlier this year, a paper by Michael Mann - for years a leading light in the IPCC, and the author of the infamous «hockey stick graph»
showing flat temperatures for 2,000 years until the recent dizzying increase - made an extraordinary admission: that, as his critics had always claimed, there had indeed been a» medieval warm period» around 1000 AD, when the world may well have been hotter than it is now.
When skeptics used the raw, «unadjusted» numbers, they got Figure 8, which
shows a flat temperature trend:
This difference explains why global temperature records based on HadSST tend to
show flatter temperatures over the past 17 years, while the new NOAA record shows a more rapid trend.»
Not exact matches
Their calculations
show that there is indeed a critical
temperature at which an empty,
flat spacetime turns into an expanding universe with mass.
I learned something new about you today, did not know about your job... I think the best thing for these colder
temperatures is fleece lined tights which I would definitely wear with the
flats you've
shown here.
Once a fully functional catalyst is up to working
temperature and is «lit», we should see a nice «
flat line» signal from the downstream sensor, which
shows that the exhaust gases have been successfully converted.
Comprised of
flat copper heaters along the floor of the gallery, which attempt to maintain a
temperature of 140 degrees, the
show emits a warmth that got the crowd hot and bothered at the opening in June.
The 60S - 60N averaged sea surface
temperatures have been relatively
flat since 2001 as
shown in a personal communication from NOAA, that should be widely available soon.
If you
show the IPCC
Temperature Line from 1900 to 2010 without some greenhouse forcing, this
shows almost a
flat line with a width of + / -0,1 K.
But looking at the big picture
shown in the graph I posted, I see quite few time periods where there were five or ten years of
flat or declining
temperatures (including several during the satellite era) very much like what we're seeing today.
The ocean cycle that has been releasing less heat is bound swing back to releasing average amounts and the
flat tropospheric
temperatures measuring sensible heat will
show a rebound.
As global
temperatures have been to all intents and purposes
flat for the last 10 to 17 years, and given that all datasets
show the Arctic warming, it follows that the rest of the world has been cooling.
As the MLO data don't
show any consecutive years with a
flat temperature at all, there is no direct proof for your or my formula to be right or wrong.
It
showed relatively
flat temperatures for approximately 900 years followed by a sharp increase in
temperatures over the last hundred.
Linear trends are appropriate for the time period after 1990 where the data are described well by a linear trend plus interannual noise (that's why we
show a linear trend for the satellite sea level in our paper), but they don't capture the longer - term climate evolution very well, e.g. the nearly
flat temperatures up to 1980.
Truncating down to 1950 has yet another benefit: it
shows that if we ignore the
temperature data beyond 1970 (since we're using 1950 - 1970
temperature data to avoid end effects) and find the best fit using only HadCRUT3 up to 1970, we predict the next four decades of
temperature remarkably well, even predicting the relatively
flat temperature for 2000 - 2010, which the model
shows is entirely attributable to SOL and has nothing to do with a cessation of long - term global warming.
I ask because the new updated chart
shows they can argue models are consistent with observations, even if
temperatures are
flat all the way out to 2035.
The assumption of nearly
flat CO2 concentration before mid-20th century is unjustified as it has a strong correlation with the global mean
temperature since 1958 as
shown:
The chart
shows the
temperature - time plots are essentially
flat.
The odd thing is that the result always
shows a steep rising
temperature trend when the neighbouring CLEAN RURAL data
shows only a
flat or a slightly rising trend.
It
shows that the
temperature of the Southern Hemisphere has been
flat, with a slight increase in the Northern Hemisphere.
The Marcott study is one that raised a stink because it was an attempt to create yet another «hockey stick» graph in which all of human history — this time, going back 11,000 years —
shows a
flat line of global
temperatures, with only recent decades
showing an alarming upward trend like the blade of a hockey stick.
«Actually, with the exception of 1998 — a «blip» year when
temperatures spiked because of a strong «El Nino» effect (the cyclical warming of the southern Pacific that affects weather around the world)-- the data on the Met Office's and CRU's own websites
show that global
temperatures have been
flat, not for ten, but for the past 15 years.
In scientific parlance, this is called «cherry picking», and explains how Whitehouse can assert that «since [1998] the global
temperature has been
flat» — although he is even wrong on this point of fact, because as the graph above
shows, 2005 was warmer.
I
showed in my links [around 6 pm yesterday] that global
temperatures have been
flat.
The next figure
shows the Hadley
temperatures from 2000 - 2009, with the trend line (virtually
flat)
shown in green.
«NATURAL weather variations have offset the effects of global warming for the past couple of years and will continue to keep
temperatures flat through 2008, a new study
shows
The
temperature reconstruction it contained
showed relatively
flat temperatures for approximately 500 years followed by a sharp increase in
temperatures over the last hundred years.
In each case it is clear that the same trick has been played — to turn an essentially
flat temperature chart into a graph which
shows temperatures steadily rising.
Dr. Judith Curry recently compared five data sets of global
temperatures and found that all but one
show the warming trend has been essentially
flat for various periods exceeding 10 years in length during the past 18 years.
And
temperature history also
shows that since January, 2001, the
temperature of the Earth has basically held almost
flat.»
Edim, the ENSO index does
show more red, lots of which is in that 1979 - 95 period when the OLS for UAH
temperature anomalies is
flat.
4) With further 10 years of human emission of CO2, since 2000, there was little warming with average global mean
temperature anomaly
flat at about 0.4 deg C as
shown in the following chart.
The fact that the raw data in long term rural reporting stations always
show a long term
flat temperature (or a decline) while the interpolated anomaly
shows warming is going to tend to inform me that people are fudging the records.
Had Briffa and Osborn
shown the decline, instead of Severinghaus wondering about the «
flat» response, he would presumably have been asking about the sharp divergence between the Briffa reconstruction (based on a very large population of sites identified ex ante as
temperature limited) and the Mann reconstruction (based on bristlecones).
«Actually, with the exception of 1998 — a «blip» year when
temperatures spiked because of a strong El Niño effect (the cyclical warming of the southern Pacific that affects weather around the world)-- the data on the Met Office's and CRU's own websites
show that global
temperatures have been
flat, not for 10, but for the past 15 years.»
How do you explain that in the last 63 years, that only about 20 years
showed temperature rising above the 1940 level, and the last 10 to 16 (or whatever period you choose) it has been
flat to down?
As Tony's charts
show, the overall trend since around 1530 to today was essentially
flat (no hockey stick at all), with
temperatures at the beginning of the record essentially at the same level as today).
They all
show a relatively
flat temperature profile since 2002, with a peak average somewhere between 2002 and 2006.
Indeed, Klotzbach has
shown (23) that extreme tropical cyclones and overall tropical cyclone activity have globally been
flat from 1986 until 2005, despite a sea surface
temperature warming of 0.25 Â °C.
But it's not only the «
flat» period since 1998 (or 2001) that does not
show a correlation between
temperature and CO2 as David Whitehouse has pointed out, and Mark Lynas has not been able to refute in his response.
I've started the graph 10 years before The Escalator to
show how «
flat» global
temperatures were leading up to the upward step in global
temperatures in 1976.