This is a 1995 analysis by Shell International B.V. scientist Peter Langcake of whether climate change was in fact underway and if, as some scientists were suggesting, a «signal» had been detected
showing human influence on climate from temperature, weather, polar ice melt and other data.
In 2005, Rep. Joe Barton, R - Texas, called Mann before Congress to testify about his now ubiquitous «hockey - stick» graph, showing temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere over the past millennia, with an abrupt spike upward at the end
showing human influence on the climate.
P.S. I do agree with you also that the policymakers (and Gavin) have made the global average surface temperature anomaly the primary climate metric to
show the human influence on the climate system.
Not exact matches
In addition, noted
climate scientist Peter Stott of the U.K. Met Office, these studies
show that in many cases,
human influence on climate has increased the risks associated with extreme events.
Hundreds of private e-mails and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among global warming skeptics, who say they
show that
climate scientists conspired to overstate the case for a
human influence on climate change.
Here's the second (and final) installment from Andrew A. Lacis of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies providing more detail
on his view of the evidence
showing a
human warming
influence on the
climate.
My take
on his position is that
on any
climate issue whatsoever — if you can not prove there is no
human influence (refute the null hypothesis by
showing it is less than 5 % probable or 1 % probable or whatever), then we have to conclude that it (whatever the question is that is being looked at) is caused by
human influence.
Trenberth argues that since science / physics has already established the
human influence on climate, oceans, etc. (and Curry would not say otherwise) it makes more sense for Curry to have to
show that there is no
influence on water vapor and precipitation (i.e., intensification of storm activity / heavy precipitation) than to
show that there is, because of basic physics / physical systems / physical relationships that constitute the global
climate cycle.
Andrew Revkin: I think it's taken ages for the world to even integrate, meaningfully, the reality that scientists have
shown clearly — that
humans are a building
influence on the
climate system.
The models, in important ways that were once claimed to be proof of ``... a discernible
human influence on global
climate», are now
shown to be FUBAR.
«multiple lines of evidence indicate that
human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect
on the
climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century» - a handful of papers a year that only most ardent warmists can find against the thousand of natural
influence showing papers.
In fact, they state that the data «clearly
show» that «strong natural variability has been characteristic of the Arctic at all time scales considered,» and they reiterate that the data suggest «that the
human influence on rate and size of
climate change thus far does not stand out strongly from other causes of
climate change.»»
Interesting that they state: Peter Stott, Head of
Climate Attribution at the Met Office, said: «Our research shows current global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the c
Climate Attribution at the Met Office, said: «Our research
shows current global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without
human influence on the
climateclimate.
The following figure
shows changes in
climate «forcings» or factors that have contributed to
climate change since 1750, before
human influences on climate were very significant.
Based
on temperature records from 1864 to 2002, the odds of such a heatwave occurring are about 1 in 10 million.4 An event like the 2003 heatwave becomes much more likely after factoring in the observed warming of 2 °F over Europe and increased weather variability.5 In addition, comparing computer models of
climate with and without
human contribution
shows that
human influence has roughly quadrupled the odds of a European summer as hot as or hotter than the summer of 2003.6
Comments like this from Keith Trenberth: «Given that global warming is «unequivocal», to quote the 2007 IPCC report, the null hypothesis should now be reversed, thereby placing the burden of proof
on showing that there is no
human influence [
on the
climate].»