Earlier today, Hawkins tweeted part of Callendar's hand - drawn graph
showing land temperatures rising against the mean during the period 1880 - 1935 set against the «CO2 effect».
The aggregated set
all show a land temperature sensitivity of 3C per doubling of CO2 concentration.
Not exact matches
The data also
show a
land bump, or sill, at the mouth of Skinfaxe glacier, which prevents warmer, deep Atlantic water (yellow on
temperature bar) from reaching the ice.
The heat map on the right
shows the areas of densest development also have the hottest
land surface
temperatures (red), near 30 degrees Celsius.
«It gives further evidence of the close links between atmospheric CO2 and
temperature, but also
shows how heterogeneous this climate change may be on
land,» he adds.
The locations of weather stations, changes in instruments, the siting of weather stations in warmer urban areas, changes in
land cover and other issues have all been cited as issues affecting the
temperature trends often used to
show that our planet is in fact warming.
Pielke, who said one issue ignored in the paper is that
land surface
temperature measurements over time
show bigger warming trends than measurements from higher up in a part of the atmosphere called the lower troposphere, and that still needs more explanation.
The Namibian
land surface is
shown in red — orange colours, corresponding to a
temperature range 301 — 319 K.
The experiments
showed that, if Antarctica's
land height is reduced,
temperatures in the region respond more strongly to a rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases over the continent.
A new study published in Earth System Dynamics, a journal of the European Geosciences Union,
shows that
land height could be a «game changer» when it comes to explaining why
temperatures are rising at such different rates in the two regions.
Maps
showing the differences in sea surface
temperature and total soil water on
land in the period between October 2011 and September 2017.
As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research
shows that
land surface
temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate change.
Using updated and corrected
temperature observations taken at thousands of weather observing stations over
land and as many commercial ships and buoys at sea, the researchers
show that
temperatures in the 21st century did not plateau, as thought.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over
land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and
show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
The figure below, taken from the 2007 IPCC report,
shows model runs with only natural forcings; model runs with all forcings; and observations of surface
temperatures for the whole globe —
land areas and ocean areas.
«We
show that at the present - day warming of 0.85 °C about 18 % of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over
land are attributable to the observed
temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence,» the research team said.
Recent
temperature measurements over the past 165 + years based on satellite, marine and
land instruments obtained and analyzed by HadCrut, GISS, and Berkeley indicate global
temperatures have increased by approximately 1 degree C
shown on Figure 7.
Here we
show that, globally,
temperatures over
land have risen as much on windy nights as on calm nights, indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban development.
Dan (# 52) also points out that the very same trends which we are seeing on
land are
showing up in
temperature records at sea and the atmosphere, and as Spencer (# 1) points out, in boreholes, and as I have pointed out, in the ocean depths down to 1500 meters.
---- It would actually be really interesting to see a series of plots that
show how the datasets of measured sea and
land temperatures have evolved over time as they have been improved with adjustments such as this.
My regression analysis
shows a sizeable impact of CO2 on artic
land temperatures.
One odd feature of the HadSST2 collation was that the
temperature impact of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption — which is very clear in the
land measurements — didn't really
show up in the SST.
With the anthropogenic perturbation likely to be around 2C and maybe more in the next 100 years (that's a global average, it will be much more over northern hemisphere
land where we actually live), there are simply no comparable sources of natural variability, and the historical record
shows that such
temperatures have not been approached in the last 2000 years.
The analysis
shows that the rise in average world
land temperature globe is approximately 1.5 degrees C in the past 250 years, and about 0.9 degrees in the past 50 years.
Secondly, since the ocean warming is
shown to be consistent with the
land surface changes, this helps validate the surface
temperature record, which is then unlikely to be purely an artifact of urban biases etc..
Bickmore's own graph
showing the
temperature anomaly results had actually
landed outside the ball park before dribbling back in demonstrates that the bulk of the IPCC scenarios are in the upper extreme and the modelling used should be reconsidered.
As I said before with exception of GISS, the other four organizations who measure global
temperatures [
land + ocean]
show the same cooling trend from 2002.
I went ahead and plotted the normalized (HadCRU + GISS) / 2 --(RSS + UAH) / 2 to
show the variance between satellite and
land - based
temperatures.
The three maps here
show land surface
temperature anomalies in Russia, the Middle East, and North America from July 20 — 27, 2016, compared to
temperatures for the same dates from 2001 to 2010.
So the infilled GISS data, which extends out over the Arctic, would
show the greater warming since the 1970s... until the warming stops for Northern Hemisphere sea surface
temperatures and for the low - to - mid latitude
land surface air
temperatures.
«Global surface
temperature trends, based on
land and marine data,
show warming of about 0.8 deg C over the last 100 years.
This is because, in this region, wind power depends on the
temperature difference between the
land and the sea, and previous research has
shown that warming occurs faster on
land than above oceans.
Yet BEST
shows a flattish
temperature profile during the 1950 — 1976 period when other
land - only profiles
show a distinct negative trend.
Figures (a) and (b)
show combined
land and sea
temperature trends since 1860 for the northern and southern hemispheres respectively.
Figure 1
shows the change in the world's air
temperature averaged over all the
land and ocean between 1975 and 2008.
[Response: I guess you missed the part about them only
showing correlation with short - term fluctuations — nothing at all to do with any «70 - yr cycle» — in
temperature over
land only.
At the time of the Mann paper (this coincided with the Super El Nino but before the step change in
temperature coincident with that event had taken place), the tree rings
showed no warming from 1970 through to circa 1996/97 whereas the adjusted
land thermometer record
showed relentless warming.
Coverage bias estimates are
shown for both HadCRUT versions using the GISTEMP
land - ocean series and the UAH series to provide the
temperature maps.
The charts I mention below
show that the ocean
temperature rise is following, in a delayed and muted manner, the trend of the
land surface in the so far small increase in median
temperatures, with an obvious trend linked to Human Population.
Global
land / ocean
temperature records from NOAA, NASA, Berkeley Earth, Hadley / UAE, and Cowtan and Way
show no detectable sign of a «pause» in warming through to the present.
Frankly, I do not know if this is relevant, but after staring at hundreds of
land (and some ocean and some satellite where applicable)
temperature graphs, many from around Australia, there are 4 persistent peaks that
show hot years about 28 years apart.
There's a lot of things
showing a rise, they manage to ignore all that, why should
land temperatures be any different?
So I would have to ask the deniers to look at Curry's BEST
land temperature data of the last 15 years and deny the fact that the data is
showing a rise.
I have sought the best empirical evidence to
show how changes in incoming solar radiation, accounted for by intrinsic solar magnetic modulation of the irradiance output as well as planetary modulation of the seasonal distribution of sunlight, affects the thermal properties of
land and sea, including
temperatures.
Surprise, this data is
showing a rise of 0.13 C / decade amidst the seasonal and natural fluctuations in
land temperature.
Corrections for this measurement switch have not yet been applied to produce a new graph of 20th Century
temperatures — that work is ongoing at the UK Met Office — but as the
land temperature record
shows a flattening of the upwards trend from the 1940s to the 1970s, clearly something did change around the 1940s to ameliorate the warming.
It's clear that weather stations on
land show average air
temperatures are rising, and as a result, the frequency and severity of droughts and heat waves are increasing.
Satellite records of
temperature do not
show the same
temperature increase as
land based sensors.
Additionally, we
show that the largest regional contributor to global
temperature trends over the past two decades is
land surface
temperature in the NH extratropics.
This map
shows peak
land surface
temperatures between February 7 and 14, 2017, a period when some of the most extreme heating occurred.