This raises the possibility that past warm spells were warmer than today and NOT
shown by the proxies.
Not exact matches
The findings confirm the expected influence of plausible
proxies for CEO narcissism on fraud
by showing a positive relationship.
If you return your signed
proxy card or vote
by proxy over the Internet but do not mark the boxes
showing how you wish to vote, your shares will be voted FOR the election of the director nominees named in this
proxy statement, FOR the ratification of the appointment of our independent registered public accounting firm, FOR the amendment of the 2004 Plan, and in the discretion of the
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The following daily chart of Powershares Nasdaq Trust ($ QQQ), as an ETF
proxy for the Nasdaq 100 Index,
shows that the price action in this ETF has been contained
by a relatively tight ascending trend channel (annotated
by the red lines) since forming its «swing low» support level on June 4.
Recent SWIFT data
show that Chinese renminbi customer payments, which are a good
proxy for trade settlement, grew
by 163 % in Europe over the past 12 months, much higher than the 109 % increase in Asia (excluding China and Hong Kong) in the same period.
Jay Jacobs hasn't allowed even that — every time the resolution comes up it is «tabled» with a handful of «
proxies» that are never
shown or identified, but merely ratified
by Jay Jacobs and Charlie King.
«Despite the well - known idiom to «not judge a book
by its cover,» the present research
shows that such judgments about the cover are good
proxies for judgments about the book — even after reading it,» says Zayas, who is chairing a session at the SPSP conference called «When to Judge a Book
by Its Cover: Timing, Context, and Individual Differences in First Impressions.»
A 2000 - year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model
shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our
proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long - term trend was caused
by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation.
The loss of mGluR5 or p11 appeared to dampen the GABA neurons» signaling, as
shown by the mice's increased willingness to pick up food pellets from an open field — a
proxy measure for resilience from depression and anxiety.
If you look at the
proxy portion of the new Moberg graphic, you see nothing that would be problematic for opponents of the hockey stick: it
shows a striking Medieval Warm Period (MWP), a cold Little Ice Age and 20th century warming not quite reaching MWP levels
by 1979, when the
proxy portion of the study ends.
Tree rings and many other chemical and biological climate
proxy records,
by their nature, tend not to record very large short - term fluctuations, and for this reason they are likely to
show less variability than actually exists in the climate record.»
They
showed you correct, but went beyond their initial charge to rhetorically validate the result
by comparison to a select few other questionable
proxy studies.
It could be readily falsified, simply
by showing that the Tiljander
proxies might, plausibly have been correctly calibrated to the instrumental temperature record
by the methods of Mann08.
Despite research
showing this methodology has flaws, how many teaching careers are still damaged
by poor observational
proxy?
Austen
shows that human nature is static — all while moving through life in silk dresses, cravats and shoe - roses got
by proxy.
The first chart
shows the S&P Case - Shiller Home Price Index (
by far, the best indicator of home prices in the U.S.), versus the
proxy for home prices used in the Consumer Price Index - the nefarious owners equivalent rent.
Due to systems limitations, the NextShares trade and quote data disseminated through the Consolidated Tape is in
proxy price format, with fund NAV represented
by a
proxy price of 100.00 and premiums / discounts to NAV represented
by the same difference from 100.00 (e.g., NAV - $ 0.01 is
shown as 99.99; NAV + $ 0.01 as 100.01).
The CW are also currently developing a
show called the Selection which has a similar premise to the Hunger Games and of course
by proxy Battle Royale.
Obviously, temperature reconstruction
by proxies has become a nice field of study, and the papers
by Mann, et al. in PNAS (2008) and Science (2009)
show where the field is now and provide better information about the Medieval Climate Anomaly, LIA, to the level where regional temperatures can be constructed.
But Montford (as related
by Stevie Mac) boldly forges on trying to
show that tree rings are lousy
proxies, especially if they corrolate to local temperature!
The hockey team has perpetuated their hoax
by not updating their tree ring series because they know that the
proxy data will have a glaring absence of the temperature rise that is
shown by the instrument record.
For precisely this reason, the numerous
proxy and model - based estimates of the variations in the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere (not just just the Mann et al reconstruction, as implied
by your comment)
show far more modest temperature changes than those typically interpreted from specific
proxy records from any one region.
Only one of the parties involved has (1) had their claims fail scientific peer - review, (2) produced a reconstruction that is completely at odds with all other existing estimates (note that there is no sign of the anomalous 15th century warmth claimed
by MM in any of the roughly dozen other model and
proxy - based estimates
shown here), and (3) been established to have made egregious elementary errors in other published work that render the work thoroughly invalid.
If not corrected for the above influence, it will
show too much cooling after major eruptions, while the reconstruction of Moberg has a reduced impact of tree rings vs. other
proxies, thus is less influenced
by them.
[Response: Following up Gavin's comment, it has indeed already been
shown — based on experiments with synthetic
proxy data derived from a long climate model simulation (see Figure 5 herein)-- that the calibration method used
by Moberg et al is prone to artificially inflating low - frequency variability.
Soon knew that the relevant data series for discussing the AO influence on Western Hudson Bay temperature (and
by proxy, sea ice) was from Churchill and despite being reminded of the fact
by the first set of reviewers, nonetheless continued to only
show the AO connection to a site 1000 miles away, which had a much higher correlation without any discussion of whether this other data was at all relevant to Churchill or the bears nearby.
By Steve McIntyre who hasn't come up with an explanation for why his supposedly diabolical Bristlecone proxies don't have any significant effect on Temperature reconstructions using the 1450 proxy network as shown by Wahl and Ammann in their figure 5
By Steve McIntyre who hasn't come up with an explanation for why his supposedly diabolical Bristlecone
proxies don't have any significant effect on Temperature reconstructions using the 1450
proxy network as
shown by Wahl and Ammann in their figure 5
by Wahl and Ammann in their figure 5c.
There is no evidence to suggest that NC sea level is the same as global sea level -LSB-...] It seems that NC sea level curve (original curve, not K11 simulation) is overestimating the 20th century sea level rise
by 12 cm -LSB-...] During the 20th century NC
proxy sea level
shows 70 % higher sea level rise than observed global sea level.
The
proxy evidence consistently
showed cooling continued after 1975, but internal conversations revealed that scientists were intentionally hiding the decline in temperatures
by using artificially - warmed instrumental temperatures that were tacked onto the
proxies.
Figure: Spaghetti graph
showing top - absolute contribution to MBH98 reconstruction (1400 - 1980 for AD1400 step
proxies)
by the following groups: Asian tree rings; Australia tree rings; European ice core; Bristlecones (and Gaspé); Greenland ice core; non-bristlecone North American tree rings; South American ice core; South American tree rings.
Based on the same observation one could argue that the hockeystick methodology is correct to pick out the bristlecones because it is the only
proxy that
shows a climate signal consistent with a 20th century rise in temperature as measured
by meteorological stations.
C: Datasets suggesting a drying environment at 2.5 Ma,
shown by λ 18O from benthic foraminifera, a
proxy for global temperature, smoothed with a Gaussian window of 200 ky; eustatic sea level; and magnetic susceptibility, a
proxy for ice rafted debris and Northern Hemisphere glaciation.
And unless all the other temperature
proxy methods just
shows a very warm MWP in Europe
by coincidence, the tree ring method does appear to be the faulty method.
I did
show longer time scales on the temperature data and
proxies not so much to discredit the deceiving hockey stick, but to address the overwhelming belief
by the public and policy makers that the current warming is «unprecedented», «dangerous» and nearing a «tipping point».
Is the plot of cloud cover measured
by an instrument other than a
proxy of the same detected back - scattered light that is
shown in the other plot?
The way you'd do that is
by taking the period in which we have both observed reality and the
proxies, and
showing that the latter tracks the former pretty accurately.
The sunspot number you
show is very controversial, e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Activity-Past-Present-and-Future.pdf and http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home And the correlation is contradicted
by the Figure in the article of this thread: http://www.leif.org/research/HMF-Briffa.png The green curve is solar activity deduced from cosmic ray
proxies of the solar magnetic field as carried out to the Earth
by the solar wind.
[Response: As has been pointed out
by others there are higher resolution paleo
proxies (some of which were part of the Marcott et al. set), but they don't
show the kind of change known in the 20th century.
Jones was referring to the cooling
shown by tree ring
proxies after the 1960s, rather than the surface temperature record.
The lines
show the Co2 levels given
by various
proxies and the blue bars at the top
show the extent of glaciation.
No measure of historical temperatures or
proxies of heat content
show the linear increase over the last thousand, or the last 250 years that is required
by your theory.
The methods of Black Box Model Identification applied to an energy balance model provide directly the so called «equilibrium sensitivities» with respect to three inputs: CO2; solar and volcanic activities; this is
shown by Prof. de Larminat in his book «Climate Change: Identifications and projections «[77] where Identification techniques well known in industrial processes, are applied to 16 combinations of historical reconstructions of temperatures (Moberg, Loehle, Ljungqvist, Jones & Mann) and of solar activity
proxies (Usoskin - Lean, Usoskin - timv, Be10 - Lean, Be10 - timv) for the last millennium, with some series going back to year 843.
On the contrary, we have
shown that a quasi 60 - year modulation is present in several
proxy records before 1850, thus our hypothesis that the modulation observed from 1850 to 1950 was due to this 60 - year cycle was supported
by the available information.
The data you
showed me has a warming of ~ 0.7 degrees Celsius since 1880 but is there any justification for the IPCC's (Copenhagen Diagnosis) prediction of a 2 - 7 degree Celsius rise
by 2100, other than studies that use tree ring
proxies?
It could be readily falsified, simply
by showing that the Tiljander
proxies might, plausibly have been correctly calibrated to the instrumental temperature record
by the methods of Mann08.
What those plots
show is a rise from the beginning of the
proxy to a platuea from 9000 to 7000 years before present of 0.3 to 0.5 degrees C depending on the data point separation used and then the grap dives
by 0.6 degrees C to present time.
The corresponding averaging of the temperature record to the same resolution of the
proxy was graphically
shown by David Middleton at WUWT in: Simple Test of Marcott et al., 2013 Posted on March 11, 2013, especially his Fig
showing 140 year averaging.
M&W
shows terrible performance
by Lasso on those blocks — even using the full
proxy set — so all they've done is proven that this methodology has no applicability to real paleoclimatic recontructions.
Most studies seek to «validate» a reconstruction
by showing that it independently reproduces instrumental estimates (e.g. early temperature data available during the 18th and 19th century) that were not used to «calibrate» the
proxy data.
Fig S8
showed that neither CPS nor EIV is materially affected
by including the Tiljander
proxies.