See also: It started with coffee... Beautiful interactive map
shows global land temperatures since 1900
Not exact matches
Global mean
temperatures averaged over
land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and
show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Recent
temperature measurements over the past 165 + years based on satellite, marine and
land instruments obtained and analyzed by HadCrut, GISS, and Berkeley indicate
global temperatures have increased by approximately 1 degree C
shown on Figure 7.
With the anthropogenic perturbation likely to be around 2C and maybe more in the next 100 years (that's a
global average, it will be much more over northern hemisphere
land where we actually live), there are simply no comparable sources of natural variability, and the historical record
shows that such
temperatures have not been approached in the last 2000 years.
As I said before with exception of GISS, the other four organizations who measure
global temperatures [
land + ocean]
show the same cooling trend from 2002.
«
Global surface
temperature trends, based on
land and marine data,
show warming of about 0.8 deg C over the last 100 years.
Global land / ocean
temperature records from NOAA, NASA, Berkeley Earth, Hadley / UAE, and Cowtan and Way
show no detectable sign of a «pause» in warming through to the present.
Additionally, we
show that the largest regional contributor to
global temperature trends over the past two decades is
land surface
temperature in the NH extratropics.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than
lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years
land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse
global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that
lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in
temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than
lands, and because
lands»
temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a
global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities
temperature trends actually
show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the
global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small
global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
The individual station records (coming soon),
show the raw station records (in red), the best estimate of the regional record via kriging in blue, and the
global land temperature record in gray for comparison.
According to the
Global Land - Ocean
Temperature Index graph that you
showed above that is not true, perhaps you don't know what «unabated» means?
Figure 2.4 (Folland et al., 2001)
shows simulations of
global land - surface air
temperature anomalies in model runs forced with SST, with and without bias adjustments to the SST data before 1942.
The
global SST
show mostly similar trends to those of the
land - surface air
temperature until 1976, but the trend since 1976 is markedly less (Table 2.1).
Now the NOAA data comes in and confirms the GISS data, and
shows the http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2009/jun/
global.html
Global Highlights: Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined
land and sea surface
temperature was the second warmest on record for June and the January - June year - to - date tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest on record.
Map
showing global land and ocean surface
temperature departures from average during August 2012.
Translating the above to climate science, if you tell me that in 100 years earth inhabited by your children is going to hell in a handbasket, because our most complicated models built with all those horrendously complicated equestions you can find in math,
show that the
global temperatures will be 10 deg higher and icecaps will melt, sea will invade
land, plant / animal ecosystem will get whacked out of order causing food supply to be badly disrupted, then I, without much climate science expertise, can easily ask you the following questions and scrutinize the results: a) where can I see that your model's futuristic predictions about
global temp, icecaps, eco system changes in the past have come true, even for much shorter periods of time, like say 20 years, before I take this for granted and make radical changes in my life?
Earth's
global average surface
temperature has risen as
shown in this plot of combined
land and ocean measurements from 1850 to 2012, derived from three independent analyses of the available data sets.
In general, the pattern of change in return values for 20 - year extreme
temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a
global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean
shows moderate increases over oceans and larger increases over
land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29).
Usually scientists rely on the
temperature over
land, taken from weather stations around the world for the last 150 years, to
show global warming.
For example in the technical summary, it says:» The
global combined
land and ocean
temperature data
show an increase of about 0.8 °C over the period 1901 — 2010 and about 0.5 °C over the period 1979 — 2010.
Not
global surface
temperature data, which
shows a normal modest decline from the recent El Niño, nor
global lower tropospheric
temperature data, which
shows nothing out of the ordinary, nor
land - only surface
temperature data, which also
shows no large drop.
As a result, only 1 out of 7
Global or Land / Ocean (ie, global less polar regions) temperature indices shows a negative trend over that period (HadCRUT4 -0.002 + / - 0.059 C / de
Global or
Land / Ocean (ie,
global less polar regions) temperature indices shows a negative trend over that period (HadCRUT4 -0.002 + / - 0.059 C / de
global less polar regions)
temperature indices
shows a negative trend over that period (HadCRUT4 -0.002 + / - 0.059 C / decade).
McKitrick and Michaels
show «Using the regression model to filter the extraneous, nonclimatic effects reduces the estimated 1980 — 2002
global average
temperature trend over
land by about half.»
The plot
shows an ensemble of
global - average
temperature time - series scans, where each
temperature time - series was computed from a random «1 out of 10» selection of GHCN
land temperature stations.
It
shows the
global average surface
temperature (
land and sea) for each decade since 1880, and the dotted line
shows what the 30 - year average was from 1961 - 1990.
If
global temperatures were being driven by oscillating ocean
temperatures then
global temperatures would be oscillating and
land temperatures would be
showing less change than oceans.
I suspect, however, a graph of that might look rather similar to that plot
showing global land - ocean
temperature increases over time.
Figure 6
shows the
global land surface air
temperature plus sea surface
temperature anomalies (average of GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and NCDC datasets, like The Escalator) before, during and after the 1997/98 El Niño.
Who among hot climatists will want to commit to writing a desire to collaborate in figuring out a way to discredit the more accurate satellite data that
shows no
global warming going on 2 decades in preference to greater reliance on the use of massaged
land - based
temperature records that support the
global warming alarmists» meme that free enterprise capitalism is destroying the Earth?
That's not what the data
shows - Vose et al 2005; «Minimum
temperature increased about twice as fast as maximum
temperature over
global land areas since 1950, resulting in a broad decline in the diurnal
temperature range...», and Zhou et al 2009; «Observations
show that the surface diurnal
temperature range (DTR) has decreased since 1950s over most
global land areas...» would disagree.
They used several simple indices, including the
land - ocean contrast, the meridional gradient, and the magnitude of the seasonal cycle, to describe
global climate variations and
showed that for natural variations, they contain information independent of the
global mean
temperature.
In the case of Hadcrut
temperature series they use around 35 - 40 %
land data when calculating
global data, but GISS have a
temperature product using roughly twice this fraction for
land area as fig 7
shows.