But don't worry, bettors haven't forgotten about NBA action either, as one game on tonight's slate is also taking incredibly one -
sided betting action.
Our Bet Signals (sharp money indicators) have triggered three reverse - line moves on the «under», summarizing how sharp money has already driven this line in the opposite direction of one -
sided betting action.
Again, the one -
sided betting action is creating some line value.
The one -
sided betting action has pushed the line up to -149, where it currently sits at 5Dimes.
Not exact matches
Betting is suspended usually when there is too much
action on one
side.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the
action of their sharpest bettors, and they won't move the number based on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one -
sided public
betting and limited sharp
action on the other
side.
Interestingly, our
Bet Signals have remained surprisingly silent despite the line movement, suggesting that the market reaction is the result of consistent, one -
sided money and not necessarily a sudden influx of professional
action.
Typically when a team is receiving less than 40 % of moneyline
bets, sportsbooks will adjust their lines to encourage
action on the other
side.
However, the
betting action is very one -
sided, with many fans feeling that the 0 - 4 Buffalo Bills are one of the worst teams in the league.
«[
Betting has been] largely one -
sided action on the Cavs as we have almost 85 percent of the public wagers on the visitors.
This Thursday night game is already attracting a lot of
betting activity — and the
action is decidedly one -
sided, with the Colts currently attracting a whopping 91 % of
bets over the slumping Titans.
Lopsided public
betting action causes bloated moneylines, leaving a lot of money on the table for bettors willing to go against the grain and taking the other
side.
Although sportsbooks know this information and build it into line, these «square» bettors often create artificial value by heavily
betting the favorite and forcing sportsbooks to shade their lines to encourage
action on the other
side (typically the underdog).
Even though the return on investment (ROI) steadily climbs as we look at increasingly one -
sided public
action,
betting against the public isn't profitable unless the team is receiving less than 25 % of spread
bets.
In order for
betting against the public to be an effective strategy, oddsmakers need to take enough
action on one
side to warrant a line move.
However, a small conference matchup will receive limited
action, and oddsmakers have no incentive to adjust their lines based on one -
sided public
betting since there's so little liability.
In many of this year's most -
bet games, we've seen lopsided
action on one spread
side.
Our
Bet Signals data has remained quiet regarding this game, indicating the movement is largely due to steady, one -
sided action, as opposed to quick hits from professional money.
Despite this one -
sided action, Golden State has actually moved to -6 across the sports
betting marketplace.
In some heavily
bet games with one -
sided public
action, sportsbooks will also adjust their numbers.
This can be done to sync up with the rest of the sports
betting marketplace or to encourage
action on the other
side in an attempt to balance their book and mitigate risk.
Betting market: Atlanta opened -5 and has taken steady, one -
sided action all week (see chart below).
In early
betting, one -
sided action drove Kansas from -2 to -4.5 for tonight's showdown with Kentucky, but sharp money had yet to make an appearance.
The basis of the analysis was our 80/20
betting system, which takes advantage of one -
sided public
action by highlighting teams that receive 20 % or less of spread
bets.
This one -
sided public
action moved the line to -4.5 across the sports
betting market place.
Sportsbooks aren't necessarily looking to encourage 50 % of the
action on each
side, but they will look to mitigate risk if they're receiving incredibly one -
sided action on a heavily
bet game.
In other words, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the
action of their sharpest bettors, and they won't move the number based on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one -
sided public
betting and limited sharp
action on the other
side.
As a result, sportsbooks see exponentially more
action on these games and, since the public generally likes
betting on favorites, this
action is often one -
sided, in terms of NFL spread
betting trends.
Looking at our public
betting percentages and
Bet Signals data, we can conclude that the movement has been caused by one -
sided action on the Jets, from both sharp and public bettors.
Marketwatch rarely takes favorites, however, we look for games where fading one -
sided public
action offers extra value, especially when our
betting systems concur.
With one -
sided action coming down on such a heavily -
bet game, oddsmakers have been forced to drop the line from an opener of Aggies +5.5 down to +4.5.
Spreads are made to reflect play on the court as much as they are designed to drive
action from the
betting public to a certain
side.
This is the cat and mouse game that goes on nearly every day in larger
betting houses; books attempting to identify the advantage customers using their
action to identify the «correct
side.»
The
betting action around the market has been vastly different, but similar in the fact that bettors are taking a
side.
Mendelsohn's Gerry («Like Lewis,» Curtis asks; «Like Ford,» Gerry replies) is as desperate as losers come, and there's a constant sense of him silently trying to justify his every wrong
action — just one more
bet, just a bit more money, just one little sign that luck is on his
side (He's convinced that Curtis and a rainbow, which both men saw upon the morning of the first meeting, are charms in his favor).
What many don't realize, however, is that «Shaun» was their sophomore effort (their first project together, the television series «Spaced,» already secured their cult status on the other
side of the pond), and so while the stakes are just as high with the release of the
action comedy, «Hot Fuzz,» it's foolish to
bet their futures on it.
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