> sigh < The only 4
sigma event in the last 50 years?
Would a similarly extreme 5 -
sigma event in July (average temp.
Jim D, A 3 -
sigma event in eg Alaska is not the same thing as a 3 -
sigma event in eg Libya, not by any stretch of the imagination, yet Hansen lumps them together as if they were exactly the same animal
Would a similarly extreme 5 -
sigma event in July (average temp.
The entire analysis relies on not having any adjustment for adaptation, and for assuming there are going to be a lot more 3 -
sigma events in the future.
Even if you could explain away the 5 -
sigma events in one domain, you still have the others.
Not exact matches
While there's no question that our own discipline has been subject to the most reckless bout of Fed - induced speculation
in history, we also have reason to believe that valuations are much closer to a two -
sigma event than may be apparent.
To claim a Higgs discovery, physicists need to extract from this mess the gold standard signal — one with a statistical significance of 5
sigma, meaning the chance of producing it from background
events alone is less than one
in a million.
In February CMS announced a possible signature of the Higgs at the statistical level of 1.5 sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.1, a figure that would assume the team looked only in the region where they saw the largest excess, when in fact they searched for an excess of events appearing anywhere in a wide mass range), and its counterpart experiment at CERN, ATLAS, reported one at 2.2 sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.5
In February CMS announced a possible signature of the Higgs at the statistical level of 1.5
sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.1, a figure that would assume the team looked only
in the region where they saw the largest excess, when in fact they searched for an excess of events appearing anywhere in a wide mass range), and its counterpart experiment at CERN, ATLAS, reported one at 2.2 sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.5
in the region where they saw the largest excess, when
in fact they searched for an excess of events appearing anywhere in a wide mass range), and its counterpart experiment at CERN, ATLAS, reported one at 2.2 sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.5
in fact they searched for an excess of
events appearing anywhere
in a wide mass range), and its counterpart experiment at CERN, ATLAS, reported one at 2.2 sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.5
in a wide mass range), and its counterpart experiment at CERN, ATLAS, reported one at 2.2
sigma (sometimes quoted as 3.5).
Howard has served on a university committee designing strategies to increase undergraduate involvement
in research, helps the Molecular Biosciences Club explain science at children's outreach
events, is an SMB mentor to other students, and was an officer
in the national
Sigma Alpha Epsilon chapter at WSU, among other activities.
Would it take a much more extreme
event, say 8 -
sigma, for Madison to have a 122F day
in July?
Hiding on the «business» floor at the London Windows Phone 7 launch
event was the Dell Venue Pro 7 not due
in the UK till November, but here nonetheless to be caught on our
Sigma 28 - 70 mm lens for you to see.So what do you get?
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he described the current environment as «decently different» from other 2 -
sigma events.
The 23.6 % premium registered
in January 1934 is a 6 -
sigma event.
A 7
sigma event would occur once
in a 1.8 billion years.
What does RC say about five consecutive 4 -
sigma melt
events in the same region?
If a similar mean is employed, then the increase
in 2 -
sigma events on the one tail will exceed the decrease
in 2 -
sigma events on the opposing tail.
DanH said:» Wili, Yes, many of us here
in Michigan are enjoying these four
sigma above normal days — it is a real rare
event for us to be this warm this early.
[Response: While warm
in the US, the 30s overall were not that warm, and so the percentage of 3
sigma +
events globally was lower than the last decade.
The incidence of 3
sigma +
events in any one decade is independent of what might be the best fit to the distribution and the Gaussian approximation doesn't come into any of the calculations above.
Since it looks like the rise
in mean temps is going to continue for at least another few decades, are we looking at what was 3
sigma events becoming 1
sigma and less?
Particularly damning is Hansen's climate dice analysis showing the spatial distribution of heat
events around the globe
in standard deviation units (slide 42); the enormous increase
in heat
events exceeding 2
sigma and 3
sigma within the last decade show an undeniable pattern of increasing extremes.
What were the warmest 33 % of temperatures
in the base period, now occur 66 % of the time, with 9 % even warmer (3 -
sigma)
events that were very rare
in the base period.
This is a 7 -
sigma event — with a chance of about one
in a hundred billion of being random.
In Willis» previous essay, he notes RC calls it a 5 sigma outlier event in April 200
In Willis» previous essay, he notes RC calls it a 5
sigma outlier
event in April 200
in April 2006.
Nor is this view incompatible with the notion that the much debated IPPC attribution claim is unjustified, rather that it is fair
in that half the warming could be a 2 -
sigma event.
Also,
in any large and complicated enough dataset, some
sigma - 4
event ought be observable
in over half of all observations.
A 32 year trend, OTOH can only be expected as a 4
sigma event (3.9 from the paper), which from memory is a once
in 16,000 year
event.
According to Fig 31 inthis «Jason» paper (pointed out on the «Harbinger» thread), for a normal distribution, such a 1 -
sigma shift
in the mean would increase the probability of an
event with an initial 0.001 probability (roughly corresponding to an
event that lies > 3 -
sigma from the mean [probability 0.0013]-RRB- by a factor of about 20 or so.
The older colliders produced a huge number of collisions, and looked for 5
sigma confidence statistically, to detect very rare
events in the collision debris.
Meanwhile, more - severe summer heat waves — classified as five -
sigma events — will go from being essentially absent
in the present day to covering around three per cent of the global land surface by 2040.
I haven't seen a list of the three
sigma events characterized as extreme weather, and the temptation to lump
events into the extreme category without a careful look at historical perspective and complicating factors would be very hard to resist — although I am not
in any way impugning their integrity.
I'd consider
events that were less than three
sigma in the true distribution, and greater than three
sigma in the normal distribution.
Summary of how they got to this finding: They use CMIP models which, if not outright flawed, have not proved their validity
in estimated temperature levels
in the 2030 to 2070 timeframe, are used as the basis for extrapolations that assert the creation of more and more 3 -
sigma «extreme
events» of hot weather; this is despite the statistical contradiction and weak support for predicting significant increases
in outlier
events based on mean increases; then, based on statistical correlations between mortality and extreme heat
events (ie heat waves), temperature warming trends are conjured into an enlargement of the risks from heat
events; risks increase significantly only by ignoring obvious adjustments and mitigations any reasonable community or person would make to adapt to warmer weather.
Would it take a much more extreme
event, say 8 -
sigma, for Madison to have a 122F day
in July?
If you then have evidence that includes (1) a shift
in the central tendency and (2) increasingly frequent observations of
events going over x
sigma, over some decent sample of space or time or both and based on the best estimated shape of the original distribution, then it is at the very least, reasonable to assume that the former tails have shifted + / -
in concert with the rest of the distribution; that is to say, the entire original distribution has shifted.
He calculates that if 4
sigma lies within normal variation, then, b.on average two 4
sigma events will occur somewhere
in the globe each year.
In fact, SFAIK, the Moscow heatwave is the only 4 sigma event to have occured anywhere in the globe in the last 50 year
In fact, SFAIK, the Moscow heatwave is the only 4
sigma event to have occured anywhere
in the globe in the last 50 year
in the globe
in the last 50 year
in the last 50 years.
From this data, this flood is certianly more than a 1
in 22
event (2
sigma on a normal distribution), but probably less than a 1
in 81
event (2.5
sigma on a normal distribution).
At USD 144 billion, global insured losses from disaster
events in 2017 were the highest ever,
sigma study says
Hiding on the «business» floor at the London Windows Phone 7 launch
event was the Dell Venue Pro 7 not due
in the UK till November, but here nonetheless to be caught on our
Sigma 28 - 70 mm lens for you to see.So what do you get?
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