«It's just that this is a difficult game to play, because
the signals we're looking for are really tiny.
Turner, who was not involved in the experiment, continues: «We got
the signal we were looking for — that's good — but we shouldn't have gotten one according to the highbrow theorists because they said it should be too small.
So, it is not just the price action setup or
signal we are looking for, it is the properly formed price action signal occurring in the proper market conditions or at the proper level that we are looking for.
Example may be, trader got
the signal she was looking for to sell the mini SP 500 futures.
Unfortunately, it was
the signal I was looking for, so I am not sure if it is valid or not.
The problem is that every observation contains both
the signal we are looking for, and spurious influences which we are not - noise.
I submit it does mean «
the signal you are looking for is damped out».
Also, think about the sorts of changes you are likely to see as a result of introducing some source of systematic error into the data — it's quite unlikely to look like
the signal you are looking for.
If
the signal you are looking for is clearly there (but hidden) than various statistical methods will all find it.