Generally speaking, joint market action in Treasury yields, credit spreads, commodities, and market internals provide the earliest
signal of potential economic strains, followed by the new orders and production
components of regional purchasing managers indices and Fed surveys, followed by real sales, followed by real production, followed by real income, followed by new claims for unemployment, and
confirmed much later by payroll employment.
High probability trades are identified through a convergence of trading
signals that help identify and
confirm both entries and exits based on two key
components: (1) trend (2) support & resistance.