Debate over whether the warming has really «paused» and the statistical
significance of a trend over a short interval are basically debating points.
Not exact matches
The report identifies key
trends that will influence the packaging industry
over the next five years and highlights the
significance of e-commerce specific packaging and «smart» packaging features.
If there is a
trend that continues with increasingly higher typhoon landfalls
over Japan, even if there is a near - constant total number
of Typhoons
over the Pacific, this would have
significance on many levels.
First, Happer mentions statistical
significance, but global surface temperature
trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level)
over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence
of an underlying long - term warming
trend, because
of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.
I asked for the evidence for this assertion, and I showed with some data sets that there are discernible
trends over the last 16 years in most
of those sets, which are not statistically significant at a
significance level
of 95 %, though.
A decrease in statistical
significance of a
trend from one period to the next period doesn't by itself even allow the conclusion that the
trend slope decreased, since the statistical
significance depends both on the
trend slope and on the properties
of the fluctuations overlaying the
trend within the time period, the amplitude and how the fluctuations are distributed
over the time interval.
Since the U.S. alone accounted for roughly half the insured losses
over this period, the
significance of the longer U.S. record and lack thereof in the shorter global record suggests that 20 years may be too short to detect significant
trends.
Trends are estimated
over time periods, and depending on what the chosen length
of the time period is, the
trend estimates for the surface / troposphere temperature and their statistical
significance will vary.
There has not been shown to be a density variation
of significance that correlates with average temperature variation (e.g, the recent high average temperature came from a small very hot area
over the ocean and a small northern area, and more normal to even colder temperatures everywhere else, not global temperatures being warmer), and Solar activity has been shown to correlate very well with much
of the long term (thousands
of years time scale) global temperature
trend.
Cox also seemed incognisant
of the
significance of the 2015/16 El Nino, a major natural spike
over underlying
trends, and that it has fallen away much faster than the previous Super El Nino *
of 1997/8.
The current warming
trend is
of particular
significance because most
of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result
of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented
over decades to millennia.1 Earth - orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types
of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale.