There was
a significant period of warming during the last 20 years of the 20th century, followed by a significant slowdown in warming during the 21st.
Not exact matches
There is no evidence for
significant increase
of CO2 in the medieval
warm period, nor for a
significant decrease at the time
of the subsequent little ice age.
The researchers detected a «
significant regional flux»
of methane, a greenhouse gas with about 30 times the
warming potential
of carbon dioxide over a 100 - year
period, coming from an area
of gas wells in southwestern Pennsylvania.
«Using a numerical climate model we found that sulfate reductions over Europe between 1980 and 2005 could explain a
significant fraction
of the amplified
warming in the Arctic region during that
period due to changes in long - range transport, atmospheric winds and ocean currents.
The most
significant criticism is that Soon and Baliunas do not present their data quantitatively — instead they merely categorize the work
of others primarily into one
of two sets: either supporting or not supporting their particular definitions
of a Medieval
Warming Period or Little Ice Age.
U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show
Warming Trend LINK WASHINGTON, Jan. 25 — After examining climate data extending back nearly 100 years, a team
of Government scientists has concluded that there has been no
significant change in average temperatures or rainfall in the United States over that entire
period.
Two examples
of climate extremes include
periods of intense
warm or cool temperatures and
significant wet or dry spells across seasons.
We assess the heat content change from both
of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003
period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average
warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a
significant increasing trend in ocean heat content.
Amplitude and Duration: The most
significant events are terminations
of the glacial
period and rapid onset
of global
warming of the interglacial
period.
That means that the chance
of a «not statistically
significant warming» in any given short
period is high.
Given that these two
periods also were those
of the most
significant warming in our atmosphere.
The fact remains that the rate
of warming in the early 20th century is comparable to that in the late 20th century whether you look at the Arctic in isolation or the globe as a whole and since CO2 levels were markedly different in the 2
periods there must be another
significant factor.
I often hear nuclear advocates proclaiming that «nuclear is THE solution to global
warming» and that «no one can be serious about dealing with global
warming if they don't support expanded use
of nuclear power» but I have never heard any nuclear advocate lay out a plan showing how many nuclear power plants would have to be built in what
period of time to have a
significant impact on GHG emissions.
Looking at the last decades,
of all possible 15 - year
periods around half had
significant warming and the other half didn't.
Because the long - term
warming trends are highly
significant relative to our estimates
of the magnitude
of natural variability, the current decadal
period of stable global mean temperature does nothing to alter a fundamental conclusion from the AR4:
warming has unequivocally been observed and documented.
Actually, there is some interesting work being done by Matt Huber
of Purdue, following up on some earlier ideas
of Emanuel's, suggesting that the role
of TCs in transporting heat from equator towards the poles may be more
significant than previously thought — it also allows for some interesting, though admittedly somewhat exotic, mechanisms for explaining the «cool tropics paradox» and «equable climate problem»
of the early Paleogene and Cretaceous
periods, i.e. the problem
of how to make the higher latitudes
warm without
warming the tropics much, something that appears to have happened during some past
warm epochs in Earth's history.
Just a quick note to say that the paleoclimate data for earlier
warm periods 125,000 years ago and even 8 - 10,000 years ago in northern Alaska (paleoclimate
warmer than now, [from] different forcings) document the northward advance
of the treeline from Nome to Barrow, Alaska, and the Canadian border at different times
of change in Earth's orbital parameters (without a
significant change in CO2).
In fact previous climate
warming after the last ice age did have
significant negative impacts on early human settlements (evidence
of periods of significant and rapid regional sea level rise).
«A
significant share
of the
warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier
periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles â $ «perhaps as much as 50 per cent.
Research indicates that the Arctic had substantially less sea ice during this
period compared to present Current desert regions of Central Asia were extensively forested due to higher rainfall, and the warm temperate forest belts in China and Japan were extended northwards West African sediments additionally record the «African Humid Period», an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when Africa was much wetter due to a strengthening of the African monsoon While there do not appear to have been significant temperature changes at most low latitude sites, other climate changes have been rep
period compared to present Current desert regions
of Central Asia were extensively forested due to higher rainfall, and the
warm temperate forest belts in China and Japan were extended northwards West African sediments additionally record the «African Humid
Period», an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when Africa was much wetter due to a strengthening of the African monsoon While there do not appear to have been significant temperature changes at most low latitude sites, other climate changes have been rep
Period», an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when Africa was much wetter due to a strengthening
of the African monsoon While there do not appear to have been
significant temperature changes at most low latitude sites, other climate changes have been reported.
A main control on atmospheric CO2 appears to be the ocean surface temperature, and remains a possibility that a
significant part
of the overall increase
of atmospheric CO2 since at least 1958 (start
of Mauna Loa observations) simply relflects the gradual
warming of the oceans as a result
of the prolonged
period of high solar activity since 1920 (Solanki et al., 2004).
All evidence suggests that
significant climate changes like the LIA, and the Medieval
Warm Period that preceded it, are the result
of significant changes in solar activity.
Interestingly, the paper «Climate Trends and Global food production since 1980» (Lobell, Schlenker, Costa - Roberts, in Sciencexpress, 5 May, Science 1204531) confirms my finding
of the absence
of climate change in the USA: «A notable exception to the [global]
warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 %
of global maize and soybean and experienced a slight cooling over the
period... the country with largest overall share
of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse] effect due to the lack
of significant climate trends».
U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show
Warming Trend LINK WASHINGTON, Jan. 25 — After examining climate data extending back nearly 100 years, a team
of Government scientists has concluded that there has been no
significant change in average temperatures or rainfall in the United States over that entire
period.
First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically
significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over
periods as short as a decade, even in the presence
of an underlying long - term
warming trend, because
of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.
** I note that an analysis
of ocean data has shown no
significant warming during the
period of 1978 -2000.
«If the surface temperature resumed the
warming rate that we observed from, say 1977 through 1998, we would still go close to a quarter
of a century without
significant net
warming because there's such a long flat
period built into the record now.
Using a large volume
of 126 proxy temperature records from the Northern Hemisphere, they found (1) a clearly discernible Medieval
Warm Period (MWP)(950-1150) and Little Ice Age (LIA)(1450 - 1850), (2) «likely unprecedented» modern temperatures (relative to the last 1,000 years), as well as a (3) «
significant» link between the high temperatures
of the MWP and recent times and the high solar activity that characterized both
periods (the Medieval Maximum and the Modern Grand Maximum).
This is particularly
significant because this is the
period of the large recent
warming that people claim is due to CO2.
So if the second half
of the 20th century had the highest average absolute levels
of solar activity for «several thousand years» (Solanki) and at least 350 + years (Lean), then this could well have been a
significant cause
of late 20th century
warming (building in all the «time lags» one might envision), despite the fact that the absolute level
of solar activity was declining over this
period.
-- The same goes for the earlier multi-decadal
period of slight cooling (~ 1940 - 1970) and especially for the early 20thC
period of rapid
warming (1910 - 1940), which occurred prior to
significant human GHG emissions.
We assess the heat content change from both
of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003
period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average
warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a
significant increasing trend in ocean heat content.
The lack
of a statistically
significant warming trend in GMST does not mean that the planet isn't
warming, firstly because GMST doesn't include the
warming of the oceans (see many posts on ocean heat content) and secondly because a lack
of a statistically
significant warming trend doesn't mean that it isn't
warming, just that it isn't
warming at a sufficiently high rate to rule out the possibility
of there being no
warming over that
period.
Well the devil is in the details — further, if we are to be convinced by the AR5 attribution
of what is essentially a strong
warming period of 30 years, then unexplained
periods temperature variability
of 30 years are
significant.
From 1910 to 1940, and from 1970 et 2000 (2
periods of 30 years that are
significant in terms
of climate evolution), we have observed roughly the same
warming of about de 0.5 °C (respectively 0.47 et 0.48 °C), whereas:
A general acknowledgement that it has not
warmed significantly over a
period of over a decade, despite the fact that human CO2 emissions have continued unabated, but that this trend is too short to be statistically
significant.
Any
warming observed prior to WWII is indicative
of «global
warming» (GW), but (since there were no
significant human GHG emissions yet) is counterindicative
of anthropogenic greenhouse
warming (AGW), since something other than human GHGs caused it, raising the question: if non GH
warming caused this
warming, could it not also have caused the most recent extended
warming period?
ie, a look at the actual temperature in the central england data set from the 1600's, would give a null hypothesis for any
significant observable human AGW signature (ie a low %
of AGW) as there only appear to be a gradual
warming trend from a
period known as the «little ice age».
For longer time
periods appropriate to the assessment
of trends, however, global temperatures have experienced
significant warming for all seasons except winter, when cooling trends exist instead across large stretches
of eastern North America and northern Eurasia.
JTFs: The IPCC attribution statement is limited to the
period since 1950 precisely because studies fail to attribute a
significant amount
of warming before then to anthropogenic forcing.
There was no statistically
significant warming from 1978 - 1992, or from 1979 - 1993, or 1980 - 1994, or 1981 - 1995, or 1995 - 2009, or any
of the other 14 year
periods.
Increases in GrIS melt and runoff during this past century
warm period must have been
significant and were probably even larger than that
of the most recent last decade (1995 - 2006).»
Identifying icebergs as a
significant source
of bioavailable Fe may shed new light on how the oceans respond to
periods of atmospheric
warming.»
The combination
of warming over that
period, the increase in CO2, and a probable anthropogenic isotope signature to that increase make a century long
significant causal contribution plausible.
Based on previously reported analysis
of the observations and modelling studies this is neither inconsistent with a
warming planet nor unexpected; and computation
of global temperature trends over longer
periods does exhibit statistically
significant warming.
Whether there has been «
significant warming» over some time
period is a matter
of observation, not statistical analysis.
Jones answered honestly, if a bit clumsily, that the data
period since 1995 is marginally too short to derive a statistically
significant trend, a response which was headlined by the Daily Mail as «Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre
of row admits: There has been no global
warming since 1995?»
An analysis
of satellite temperature dataset, through February 2014, identifies only two 5 - year
periods having
significant warming and five
periods that exhibit either zero
warming or cooling... the consensus experts» predicted reaction, by the climate, to a surge
of human CO2 emissions is not supported by empirical evidence
I support the position
of it being «not yet definitive» that CO2 has had any
significant impact on
warming over the
period Monckton
of Brenchley mentioned.
The inclusion
of the very
warm 1998 El Nino year at the end (or start)
of either
of those two
periods only has a
significant effect on the trend over the shorter
period.