While we believe payrolls and average hourly earnings are both likely to miss consensus estimates, we think the employment report may be somewhat less important than usual for the monetary policy outlook, because 1) recent data have been firm so we have some room for a miss, 2) the August seasonal issue is now
well known so even a somewhat larger miss may not
significantly alter the staff view, and 3) there are several months between now and December to make up for any weakness in
tomorrow's report.