The DECC used to show the actual temp data CET data set graph (still only 150 years of it) on the DECC website, but following Phil Jones stating in that BBC interview, 3
similar warming periods, and rates of warming in the last 150 years and that you could clearly see this on the graph, the pronouncement by the DECC that this graph showed «unprecedented» man made global warming, seemed ridiculous.
Our planet very likely experienced
similar warm periods over the last 10000 years without any ill effect.
Not exact matches
«Scale insects were most likely to be present on specimens collected during
warm historical time
periods, and scales were most abundant when temperatures were
similar to modern, urban Raleigh.»
«Looking at weather and dengue incidents over longer
periods, we found a
similar strong link between how increased rainfall and
warmer temperatures resulting from the reoccurring el Niño phenomenon are associated with elevated risks of dengue epidemics.
William M. Gray wrote... I judge our present global ocean circulation to be
similar to that of the
period of the early 1940s when the globe had shown great
warming since 1910, and there was concern as to whether this 1910 - 1940 global
warming would continue.
In the paper Gray makes many extravagant claims about how supposed changes in the THC accounted for various 20th century climate changes («I judge our present global ocean circulation conditions to be
similar to that of the
period of the early 1940s when the globe had shown great
warming since 1910, and there was concern as to whether this 1910 - 1940 global
warming would continue.
A proper
warm - up
period is 5 to 15 minutes of light walking or trotting on a surface
similar to the event surface.
The best estimate of the human induced contribution to
warming is
similar to the observed
warming over this
period.
The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to
warming is
similar to the observed
warming over this
period.
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to
warming is
similar to the observed
warming over this
period....
-- which by the way is an argument for why the Ruddiman hypothesis for an «expected» ice age is not valid - we should be «expecting» a 40,000 year
warm period similar to what was recently discovered at Vostok for the time ~ 400,000 years ago when we were last at this point in the eccentricity cycle!)
What if history repeats itself and the
warming trend we currently have will be followed by a cooling
period similar to what is known as the «little ice age»?
Temperature increases in the two
warming periods are of a
similar magnitude, however, the rate of
warming in 1920 — 1930 was about 50 % higher than that in 1995 — 2005.»
Since all of the IPCC's models «project» the «likelihood» of a steady
warming over this
period, all of them must be wrong, and we can expect
similar failures for all the other «projections».»
Ernst Beck has complied tens of thousands of analyses of early measurements of atmospheric CO2, and concludes that CO2 levels were much higher during the 1930's
warm period than the generally - accepted levels; CO2 dropped sharply during the cooling from ~ 1946 to ~ 1977; and CO2 increased since 1977 due to the recent
warming, and is now at
similar levels to the early 1940's.
In fact the evidence available indicates that there was NOT a
similar melt of Arctic ice in the MWP or any Roman
warm period.
â $ œRecent temperatures were the
warmest since the fourteenth century, but
similar conditions existed intermittently during the
period spanning ~ 4000â $ «1000 varve years ago.â $ http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/cook2008.pdf Data — http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-lake-6195.html
Nonetheless, the longer records suggest that
similar periods of cooling and
periods of
warming also occurred in the 18th and 19th centuries.
If the rural trends of Figures 11 and 12 are representative of global trends, then this indicates that the 1980s - 2000s «global
warming» was balanced by a
similar period of «global cooling» in the decades before that.
It is even accepted that previous interglacials (the
warm periods similar to the Holocene, the
period we are currently living in) were
warmer than what we experience today.
However, there is still disagreement over whether a
warm period around 1000 years ago (the «Medieval Warm Period») was similar, warmer or cooler than the «Current Warm Period&raq
warm period around 1000 years ago (the «Medieval Warm Period») was similar, warmer or cooler than the «Current Warm Period&r
period around 1000 years ago (the «Medieval
Warm Period») was similar, warmer or cooler than the «Current Warm Period&raq
Warm Period») was similar, warmer or cooler than the «Current Warm Period&r
Period») was
similar,
warmer or cooler than the «Current
Warm Period&raq
Warm Period&r
Period».
2018 and 2017 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs (~ 200) Maley et al., 2018 Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018 Wündsch et al., 2018 McGowan et al., 2018 «Our reconstructed Tmax [temperature maximum] for these
warmer conditions peaks around 1390 CE at + 0.8 °C above the 1961 — 90 mean,
similar to the peak Tmax during the RWP [Roman
Warm Period].
A
similar period wit
similar warming occurred between 1912 - 1925 when man - made emissions have been deemed insignificant.
Our present
warm period has been relatively mellow for the last 8,000 years, with fewer fluctuations than any other
similar period in the climate record.
In SPM we can read also «The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to
warming is
similar to the observed
warming over this
period.»
Your confidence that recent
warming is a CO2 forcing implies a
similar confidence that the natural variability (unknown forcings responisble for earlier
periods of
warming) is no longer operative.
In addition to running climate models, the researchers compared modern
warming to
similar temperature increases that happened approximately 120,000 years ago in a
period known as the Eemian, when global sea level was 5 to 9 meters (between 16 and 30 feet) higher than it is today due to the release of glacial water.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm So, in answer to the question, the
warming rates for all 4
periods are
similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.
Or is the recent
warming trend of 0.2 deg C per decade for the
period 1970 - 2000 is just the
warming phase of the multidecadal oscillation
similar to that for the
period 1910 - 1940?
This will happen on a schedule that is
similar to the cooling after the peak of the Medieval
Warm Period and
similar to the cooling after the peak of the Roman
Warm Period.
I linked to the Phil Jones article, that said the late 20th century,
warming was not statistically different to early
similar periods of
warming, thus we can discard the unprecedented claim for late 2oth century rates of
warming.
• There is much scientific and historical evidence that the reported recent
warming in the Arctic is not unprecedented, for instance the 1920/30's are recorded to have been relatively
warm as in this 2006 paper, and this newer paper is interesting if challenging, but there are still other similar papers and much widespread history of the Medieval Warm Per
warm as in this 2006 paper, and this newer paper is interesting if challenging, but there are still other
similar papers and much widespread history of the Medieval
Warm Per
Warm Period.
I can produce a
similar figure for the recent 16 year
period, for which the alleged «global
warming stop», «pause», or «standstill» is asserted by «skeptics» or even by Judith Curry.
A
similar «global
warming standstill» as asserted for the recent years could be constructed for the
period from 1979 to the mid 1990ies, just by convenient cherry picking of the data
Looks like a lot of variability in climate in this
period, quite pronouced
warming periods and rates of
warming (and cooling) throughout the centuries,
similar to the late 2oth century, as Phil Jone's agreed in that BBC interview (link above)
A
similar «global
warming standstill» as asserted for the recent years could be constructed for the
period from 1979 to the mid 1990ies, just by convenient cherry picking of the data: http://climateconomysociety.blogspot.com/2013/01/how-to-create-false-global-
warming.html
I have a
similar attitude to other Team studies purporting to show that the modern
warm period is
warmer than the MWP — I don't think that they've proved this using their data and methods, each study having slightly different problems, but the high degree of linkage between Team studies in terms of proxy selection means that a couple of problem proxies (e.g. bristlecones) can affect a lot of studies that are advertised as «independent».
Yet its own temperature dataset proves past natural global
warming rates of earlier
periods are
similar and as powerful.
If you looked at other
periods in a computer run with
similar warming trends would they all have the same spatial pattern as the one you investigated, is it possible that some might more closely resemble the spatial pattern of the observed data?
I don't necessarily see any contradiction whatsoever with the work of Mann et al., which showed that although many individual regions experienced
similar warmth to modern warmth sometime in some broadly - defined «Medieval
Warm Period», the
warmest times were asynchronous in different regions and, hence, when you looked globally the warmth was not as great as the late 20th century warmth which was not asynchronous.
What do you say about the fact that Mars, as well as other planets, have been going through a
warming period very
similar to ours?
The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to
warming is
similar to the observed
warming over this
period (Figure SPM.3).»
Compared to a
similar 363 - month
period, working backwards from October 1944, the modern
warming was only +0.06 °C higher, which is smaller than the error bars of a standard thermometer measurement.
BBC — If you agree that there were
similar periods of
warming since 1850 to the current
period, and that the MWP is under debate, what factors convince you that recent
warming has been largely man - made?
The «
warming period» was, like
similar events in the Bronze Age and Roman Empire times, just a moderate
warming of around 0.5 ºC.
Our devotee will also pass by the curious additional facts that a
period of
similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.
We do not have enough weather records to reliably tell what happened to Arctic temperatures before the 20th century, but it is at least plausible that
similar cooling and
warming periods also occurred then.
Nine years down the track there have been many papers from different groups using different methods and proxies that generally converge on the conclusion that the (NH / global) temperature of the last few decades is likely
warmer than for any
similar period in the last millennium.
Even though they still use the word «most» in the attribution statement, they go all out and pretty much say it is all AGW: «The best estimate of the human induced contribution to
warming is
similar to the observed
warming over this
period.»
I've got eight other graphs on the DeSmog Blog, none of which has been questioned in the least, all showing a hockey stick shape in the temperature from 1,000 years ago to today, and all of them showing a pretty
similar — the idea that there was a Medieval
Warming Period during which the temperature was higher than it is now is, that is like, flagrantly incorrect is the nicest way that I can say it.