If we have measures of volcanic activity, solar activity and greenhouse gas forcing, then it is straightforward assign
similar warming rates at different times to the dominating forcing at those times.
In the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed about 3 °F with
similar warming rates in northern Canada.
A linear trend fit to the annual mean anomalies the last 17 years suggest
similar warming rates as reported by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf.
Not exact matches
Similar recent experiments have demonstrated, for example, that briefly holding a
warm beverage buoys subsequent
ratings of another's personality, that social isolation sensitizes a person to all things chilly, that inappropriate social mimicry creates a sense of cold, and that differences in the setting of the experimental lab's thermostat leads test subjects to construe social relationships differently.
If these glaciers retreat at a
similar rate to what they did in the past decade, 30 of them would disconnect from
warm ocean waters by the end of the century with that kind of travel distance, it says.
But both CO2 and solar - caused surface + tropospheric
warming will cause at least some
similar latitudinal and seasonal patterns of change within the troposphere + surface via the patterns of albedo feedback and lapse
rate feedback.
Temperature increases in the two
warming periods are of a
similar magnitude, however, the
rate of
warming in 1920 — 1930 was about 50 % higher than that in 1995 — 2005.»
Similar negative effects occur with worsening air pollution — higher levels of ground - level ozone smog and other pollutants that increase with
warmer temperatures have been directly linked with increased
rates of respiratory and cardiovascular disease — food production and safety —
warmer temperatures and varying rainfall patterns mess up staple crop yields and aid the migration and breeding of pests that can devastate crops — flooding — as rising sea levels make coastal areas and densely - populated river deltas more susceptible to storm surges and flooding that result from severe weather — and wildfires, which can be ancillary to increased heat waves and are also responsible for poor air quality (not to mention burning people's homes and crops).
An article in Science (11 Nov 2005) by Scott L. Wing, et al., concludes:... «The PETM provides an important analog to present - day anthropogenic global
warming, because the two episodes are inferred to have
similar rates and magnitudes of carbon release and climate change (6)».
The 97 % consensus on human - caused global
warming is a robust result using two independent methods (volunteer abstract
ratings and scientist self -
ratings) and consistent with
similar previous surveys.
Corrections were made to the record, and before long the satellite record showed the
warming of the lower atmosphere happening at a
similar rate to that estimated from the thermometers around the globe.
That suggests the oceans have been
warming at a
similar rate since the start of the 20th century or before.
The underlying issue is this: While the planet was subject primarily to natural changes, the different parts of the planet were
warming and cooling at
similar rates, thus the zonal anomalies run fairly parallel.
However the three decades 1910 - 1940 show a
similar rate of global
warming.
The second Weichselian Icelandic ice sheet collapse, onshore (est. net wastage 221 Gt a − 1 over 750 years),
similar to today's Greenland
rates of mass loss, has been attributed to atmospheric Bølling - Allerød
warming.
It looks likely that the rapid
warming of the Arctic has broken the thermometer temperature record in two different ways - firstly by violating the assumption that unobserved regions of the planet
warm at a broadly
similar rate to observed regions, and secondly by violating the assumption that neighbouring regions of the planet's surface
warm at a
similar rate.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm So, in answer to the question, the
warming rates for all 4 periods are
similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.
I linked to the Phil Jones article, that said the late 20th century,
warming was not statistically different to early
similar periods of
warming, thus we can discard the unprecedented claim for late 2oth century
rates of
warming.
The DECC used to show the actual temp data CET data set graph (still only 150 years of it) on the DECC website, but following Phil Jones stating in that BBC interview, 3
similar warming periods, and
rates of
warming in the last 150 years and that you could clearly see this on the graph, the pronouncement by the DECC that this graph showed «unprecedented» man made global
warming, seemed ridiculous.
Both of these are emitted at high
rates similar to Earth, and this planet
warms.
Looks like a lot of variability in climate in this period, quite pronouced
warming periods and
rates of
warming (and cooling) throughout the centuries,
similar to the late 2oth century, as Phil Jone's agreed in that BBC interview (link above)
Comparing the global temperature at the time of the most recent three La Ninas (1999 - 2000, 2008, and 2011 - 2012), it is apparent that global temperature has continued to rise between recent years of comparable tropical temperature, indeed, at a
rate of
warming similar to that of the previous three decades.
Yet its own temperature dataset proves past natural global
warming rates of earlier periods are
similar and as powerful.
Thus, pathways with lower
rates of emission in 2050 are likely to result in a
similar amount of peak
warming, while higher
rates of emission in 2050 can lead to varying levels of peak
warming, as seen in figure 2d.
Our devotee will also pass by the curious additional facts that a period of
similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest
rate.
The only «fact» we have here is that it appears to have stopped around the end of 2000, and has cooled slightly since then (at a cooling
rate similar to the
warming rate experienced from 1850 to 2000, or around — 0.06 °C per decade).
Then further
warming at the
rate of 0.16 deg C per decade will resume until another peak by 2060,
similar to the peaks in the 1880s, 1940s, & 2000s.
The point to be made regarding that paper is
similar to the one I made above: there is evidence that internal variability (to the extent it can be equated with the AMO) has affected the
rate at which anthropogenic forcing has
warmed the surface, but most of the
warming must have been forced, with the observed positive ocean heat uptake data excluding more than a very minor role for internal variability in the
warming itself with very high confidence.
The
warming rates are strikingly
similar.
Basil Newmerzhycky: I won't bore you with the «2014 will be
warmest year of all» hype, but it is almost certain, and with a greater likelihood of an accelerated
warming trend well into the next decade at twice the
rate of the previous one,
similar to the 0.2 deg C.
Each record is constructed on the basis of monthly average raw data from selected meteorological stations around the world, and all show
similar magnitudes and
rates of
warming over the last century.
«A strong
warming and severe drought predicted on the basis of the ensemble mean of the CMIP climate models simulations is supported by our regression analysis only in a very unlikely case of the continually increasing AMO at a
rate similar to its 1970 — 2010 increase» 7
Second, as pointed out above, the problems with the satellite data have been adjusted and now «show
warming rates that are
similar to those of the surface temperature record and are consistent within their respective uncertainties»
«The most important thing is that it shows that the
rate of migration is lower than recent and anticipated
warming,» said Dr. Oechel, «and it implies that if there's a continual trend at a
rate similar to this, species won't be able to keep up with their new thermal zones as they move higher and higher.»
New analyses of balloon - borne and satellite measurements of lower - and mid-tropospheric temperature show
warming rates that are
similar to those of the surface temperature record and are consistent within their respective uncertainties, largely reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR.
It's something like moderately good news, in that the aerosol reduction & solar brightening are temporary in nature, and once adjusted to the new conditions, temperatures will continue to rise in Europe at a more modest
rate of +0.2 C per decade,
similar to the global
warming trend.
Leading member of the climate establishment, Dr. Phil Jones, again: the
rates of global
warming from 1860 - 1880, 1910 - 1940 and 1975 - 1998 «are
similar and not statistically significantly different fromeach other»» 54.
The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global
rate of
warming, are generally
similar in high - end and «non-high-end» simulations.
But since 1998, the
rate of
warming has been only 0.09 F (0.05 C) per decade — even as atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to rise at a
rate similar to previous decades.
The land - only record shows
similar variability, although the
rate of
warming is greater than in the combined record after about 1980.
A sceptic would put ALL the trend lines in of
similar duration, not just selecting a few, like the IPCC and Skeptical Science do when showing just one period of short term high
rate of
warming, a sceptic would show all.»
Anthropogenic global
warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a
rate similar to that observed in recent decades.
Put more bluntly, though, we've been told that CAGW is something that is «unprecedented» - > seeing that we've already lived through periods with
similar rates of
warming, why do we continue to hear that trope?