That simple back of envelope calc suggests CS = ~ 1.5 k in the absence of other unknowns.
My simple back of the envelope estimates show the 10.6 % tax efficient investment (based on our combined 401Ks) will be approximately 8 % in five years, or roughly $ 80K (growing at an estimated 7 - 8 %).
Understanding the feedbacks is of course useful and should also be done (and it is underway), but
a simple back of the envelope calculation demonstrates clearly they can not have had a significant effect over the 20th C compared to the rise due to industrial emissions.
Steve, I think it is fairly well established that the earth's climate system is more sensitive to solar forcing than one would expect from
a simple back of the envelope estimate of the increase in total irradiance.
If they completely miss regional effects, can not simulate ocean cycles and poorly represent cloud effects, how is that better than
simple back of the envelope calcs of TCS and SLR?
Not exact matches
And as you can see from my story, a business plan doesn't have to be a lengthy, well - thought - out proposal — it can be as
simple as some notes in a notebook, or a scribble on the
back of an
envelope.»
The new estimate
of mortality from windows, based on statistical analysis
of 23 local studies, comes close to an old estimate (100 million to 1 billion) that had been derided for its
simple,
back -
of - the -
envelope approach.
[Response: Here's a
simple back -
of -
envelope consideration for the future: if the Greenland ice sheet melts completely over the next ~ 1,000 years (Jim Hansen argues in the current Climatic Change that the time scale could be centuries), this would contribute an average flux
of ~ 0.1 Sv
of freshwater to the surrounding ocean.
If we had done a
simple back -
of - the -
envelope estimate, surely someone would have criticized us for not using a climate model... Besides we also looked into regional patterns and the sea - ice response in our paper, something one can not do without a climate model.
[Response: I agree with Chris that the
simplest back -
of -
envelope argument is fully sufficient to make the point.
A
simple calculation for the 19th and 18th centuries is quickly and easily done using results from their table 1 and figures 1 - 2: A
back -
of - the
envelope calculation based on the 19th and 18th centuries suggests that the transfer functions now would yield an increase
of almost 1K for the period 1900 - 2000, most
of which should have been realized by 1980!
Back of the
envelope calculation
of the
simplest sort.
But for a quick,
back -
of - the -
envelope estimate, we're keeping things
simple.
It can be as
simple as «writing it on the
back of an
envelope with pen and paper,» he notes, or more sophisticated, using budgeting sites like Mint.com, where you can visually track your spending.
It all started this past Sunday, with a
simple, extremely rough sketch I scribbled on the
back of an old
envelope I found in one
of the kitchen drawers.
I used one long piece
of fabric and after the paint dried fully, I sewed a
simple envelope back pillow.