We propose here a new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and
simple hypothesis testing.
The inferential gain is particularly substantial when
a simple hypothesis testing procedure is implemented.
Not exact matches
On the basis of recent insights into the characteristics of conscious and unconscious thought, we
tested the
hypothesis that
simple choices (such as between different towels or different sets of oven mitts) indeed produce better results after conscious thought, but that choices in complex matters (such as between different houses or different cars) should be left to unconscious thought.
To
test this
hypothesis, we used independent component analysis to isolate the network in a group of 13 subjects with mild AD and in a group of 13 age - matched elderly controls as they performed a
simple sensory - motor processing task.
Once they had a question they wanted to
test, they would write a
simple hypothesis: Red apples will taste sour and green apples will taste sweet.
Simple examples for
testing a
hypothesis and setting up experiments in chemistry and physics are integrated into the plot.
It seems like it would be easy to
test this sort of
hypothesis in a
simple EBM attribution study like Crowley 2000 rather than as an isolated phenomenon as above and in Scafetta & West.
See Van Trees, H. L., Detection, estimation, and Modulation Theory, Part I, Section 2.2,
Simple Binary
Hypothesis Tests, esp.
But the severity of the
tests, in its turn, depends upon the degree of testability, and thus upon the simplicity of the
hypothesis: the
hypothesis which is falsifiable in a higher degree, or the
simpler hypothesis, is also the one which is corroborable in a higher degree.»
[Pat Michaels]: «Administrator Bolden is obligated to investigate the ethics of publishing a paper that the Director of the GISS laboratory knew could not pass the most
simple test of
hypothesis.»
Basic statistical knowledge such as
hypothesis testing, sampling techniques,
simple and multiple regression techniques
«is not a particularly interesting
hypothesis for the
simple reason that the statistical power of the
test is very low because the timespan over which the trend is computed is too short.»
Given that a significant and agreed upon UHI effect exists and there seem to be objective methods of determining where it would be most and least prevalent, why would not a rather
simple study be available whereby contrasting locations of UHI are measured for temperatures and wind in order to better
test Parker's
hypothesis?
We also
tested for the effect of extreme temperatures on the proportion of male births using a temperature anomaly series [18] and additionally we considered two
simpler hypotheses: that the monthly numbers of births, and the monthly proportions of male births, vary in a seasonal manner [16].
«I posit that
simple solar L1 irradiance modification experiments could be designed to
test the
hypothesis without any serious side effects»
Since a basic North American continental experiment was already successfully executed on the few post 911 clear sky days, I posit that
simple solar L1 irradiance modification experiments could be designed to
test the
hypothesis without any serious side effects (certainly without moving an asteroid) to successfully obtain the desired data to enable more permanent temporary solutions, and in order to give us more time to develop the necessary carbon dioxide removal and sequestration schemes — aka carbon containing products).
Basic Statistics — Frequency distributions and graphical methods, percentiles, measures of central tendency and variability, probability emphasizing binomial and normal distributions, sampling distributions, point and interval estimation, one and two sample
hypothesis tests,
simple linear regression.
In summary, we added 6 parameters to our initial
simplest model, 3 to
test a priori
hypotheses and 3 based on post hoc inspection of results to arrive at the final model.