Update 16 January 2013: As hinted at in the discussion, at the time this was published we had already performed an analysis of worldwide temperature records which confirms that
our simple statistical approach works well.
Hawkins et al. (APPOSITE Project), 4.1 ± 0.8 (5 - 95 % range), Statistical Used three
simple statistical approaches based on September extent data.
Not exact matches
The new estimate of mortality from windows, based on
statistical analysis of 23 local studies, comes close to an old estimate (100 million to 1 billion) that had been derided for its
simple, back - of - the - envelope
approach.
And, because it eschews complex physical climate models for a
statistical, data - driven modeling
approach, it is relatively «
simple and parsimonious,» Kalra said.
In
simplest terms, the
statistical procedure of the Coleman Report relies on a problematic stepwise analysis of variance
approach, which makes strong assumptions about which factors are fundamental causes of achievement and which are of secondary significance.
One of the freshest
approaches I've seen to conveying a vital scientific and
statistical idea came from Norwegian TV, in a
simple animation showing, through an overhead view of a man walking a dog, the difference between trend and variation.
We propose here a new
statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and
simple hypothesis testing.
There IS a heat source and a physical reality, that requires no forcing to give it super powers as with puny CO2 the palnts gobble up as much as they can get of, in fact.And explains the stable ice age and the Milankovitch linked interglacials, and how that sawtooth between repeated and predicatble limits can be driven using known energy sources, specific heats and masses, plus
simple deterministic physics, no
statistical models or Piltdown Mann data set
approaches.
The problem with trying to sort through the literature on the uncertainty in this problem is that without any
simple formal statement of the problem and a well know
statistical or mathematical
approach, it feels like death by «is this paper even relevant, its so frigging weirdly complicated».