Tamino has been remarkably successful as estimating global SAT using
simple toy models, as has BPL.
Lessons from
simple toy models and experience with more sophisticated GCMs suggests that any perturbation to the TOA radiation budget from whatever source is a pretty good predictor of eventual surface temperature change.
You can see how controversial
this simple toy model was.
If you want equations, this was all worked out in
a simple toy model a while back.
Not exact matches
It is also a little more expensive than some
models, especially considering that it is a
simple bouncer without any
toys or gadgets to entertain baby.
A child who has mastered
simple kids» ride - on
toys like push - scooters — or an older child who has not yet tried a scooter — will often ask for a faster, more exciting electric
model.
A feeding puzzle can be any
toy or object that can contain food and requires the pet to work to find a way to get to that food.3 A wide variety of commercial feeding puzzles from companies such as Kong, Premier, and Nina Ottosson is available at pet stores and online, ranging from relatively
simple toys that scatter food as they are «hunted» to complex, expensive
models that require problem solving (FIGURE 1).
The basic physics is illustrated very nicely in a
simple «
toy model» developed by Thomas Stocker and Sigfus Johnsen.
So I would recommend — modestly — that skeptics try very hard not to buy into this and redirect all such discussions to questions such as why the
models are in such terrible disagreement with each other, even when applied to identical
toy problems that are far
simpler than the actual Earth, and why we aren't using empirical evidence (as it accumulates) to reject failing
models and concentrate on the ones that come closest to working, while also not using the
models that are obviously not working in any sort of «average» claim for future warming.