Regional climate models (RCMs) are the primary source of high - resolution climate projections, and it is of crucial importance to evaluate their ability to
simulate extreme events under current climate conditions.
Not exact matches
CPDN is unique in providing large ensembles that enable us to
simulate statistics of extremely rare
events hence the main focus of our work has been on
extreme weather and in particular its attribution to external climate drivers.
The
Extremes Grand Challenge is organised around four over arching themes (Document, Understand,
Simulate, Attribute) with a main focus on four core
events (Heavy Precipitation, Heatwave, Drought, Storm).
All British Cars, the sole and authorized dealer of Jaguar and Land Rover vehicles in the Philippines, held a three - day experiential test drive
event showcasing the capabilities of the two iconic British brands under
simulated extreme road conditions in a controlled environment.
But if it's sufficiently
extreme, it would be easier to attribute it to physical conditions if you can
simulate the
event.
Because most AOGCMs have coarse resolution and large - scale systematic errors, and
extreme events tend to be short lived and have smaller spatial scales, it is somewhat surprising how well the models
simulate the statistics of
extreme events in the current climate, including the trends during the 20th century (see Chapter 9 for more detail).
By understanding this complex relationship, we may be able to better
simulate and detect changes in the prevalence of
extreme weather
events in the midlatitudes, particularly across the northeastern United States.
the model does not
simulate any dependence of Northern England precipitation on the state of El Niño, with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.01 and no visual indications that
extreme events behave differently than the mean.
Key remaining uncertainties relate to the precise magnitude and nature of changes at global, and particularly regional, scales, and especially for
extreme events and our ability to
simulate and attribute such changes using climate models.
«The failure to imagine future
extreme events and climate scenarios, other than those that are driven by CO2 emissions and
simulated by deficient climate models, has the potential to increase our vulnerability to future climate surprises»
The failure to imagine future
extreme events and climate scenarios, other than those that are driven by CO2 emissions and
simulated by deficient climate models, has the potential to increase our vulnerability to future climate surprises (see my recent presentation on this Generating possibility distributions of scenarios for regional climate change).
Using a collection of 13 climate models, the researchers
simulated the frequency of
extreme El Niño
events from a pre-industrial period of 1869 - 99 to the end of the 21st century.
Using a collection of 13 climate models, the researchers
simulated the frequency of
extreme El Niño
events from a
In order to see the effects of
extreme heat
events on the United States, the researchers developed models to
simulate scenarios analogous to that of Europe's for heat - sensitive urban areas.
The criteria are: (1) consistency with mainstream energy - demand forecasts; (2)
simulating supply to meet demand reliably at hourly, half - hourly, and five - minute timescales, with resilience to
extreme climate
events; (3) identifying necessary transmission and distribution requirements; and (4) maintaining the provision of essential ancillary services.
Further investigation using high - resolution modeling approaches that better resolve the boundary conditions and fine - scale physical processes (44 ⇓ — 46) and / or using analyses that focus on the underlying large - scale climate dynamics of individual
extreme events (8) could help to overcome the limitations of
simulated precipitation and temperature in the current generation of global climate models.
Our computer models
simulate the climate for the next century, producing predictions of temperature, rainfall and the probability of
extreme weather
events.
The paper investigates the ability of climate models to
simulate extreme climate
events.