But El Chichon erupted when an El Nino warming was about to start and he could not find any convenient La Nina that could
simulate volcanic cooling.
Not exact matches
The interannual variability in the individual simulations that is evident in Figure 9.5 suggests that current models generally
simulate large - scale natural internal variability quite well, and also capture the
cooling associated with
volcanic eruptions on shorter time scales.
See also::: Sounds Risky to Us:
Simulating a
Volcanic Eruption to Counter Global Warming,:: The Economist Discovers Geo - engineering,:: Wild and Crazy Ideas to
Cool the Planet
Even their own simulations show that it only
cooled by three quarters of that (efficacy of 0.75)... and a comparison of modeled and HadCRUT temperature drops after Pinatubo shows that the GISS
simulated drop in temperature is nearly twice as large as the actual drop... which puts the actual real - world efficacy of
volcanic forcing way down around 0.40.
«Modelling studies are also in moderately good agreement with observations during the first half of the 20th century when both anthropogenic and natural forcings are considered, although assessments of which forcings are important differ, with some studies finding that solar forcing is more important (Meehl et al., 2004) while other studies find that
volcanic forcing (Broccoli et al., 2003) or internal variability (Delworth and Knutson, 2000) could be more important... The mid-century
cooling that the model
simulates in some regions is also observed, and is caused in the model by regional negative surface forcing from organic and black carbon associated with biomass burning.