Sentences with phrase «simulated over the historical period»
This approach allows us to examine what the models say about future warming relative to future emissions, without bringing in any potential model bias simulated over the historical period.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ Not exact matches
an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006 - 2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998 - 2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble... During the 15 - year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model - simulated trends whereas during the 15 - year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends.
It follows that the real effect of masking to HadCRUT4 coverage over the historical period is, in the southern extra-tropics, almost certainly the opposite of that simulated by CMIP5 models.