Sentences with phrase «simulations of the warmer climate»

This pattern can not be explained by natural variability alone, and is consistent with model simulations of a warming climate.2

In simulations of the warmer climate reached after quadrupling carbon dioxide concentrations, higher - sensitivity (HS) models project a reduction of TLC reflection, whereas lower - sensitivity (LS) models project less change or even an increase.

Not exact matches

In the Department of Meteorology at Stockholm University (MISU), researchers have done a series of model simulations investigating tropical cyclone activity during an earlier warm climate, the mid-Holocene, 6,000 years ago.

«Weather should remain predictable despite climate change: Simulations of jet stream behavior in a warming climate suggest ranges of forecasts in the mid-century will be similar to those in present day.»

We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics, including warming and ocean heat content.»

Likewise, while models can not represent the climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the Earth will warm for a given amount of emissions), climate simulations are checked and re-checked against real - world observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.

Dr Stephen Grimes of Plymouth University, who initiated the research project, highlighted the climate changes that must have caused this increase in sediment erosion and transport — «We have climate model simulations of the effect of warming on rainfall during the PETM event, and they show some changes in the average amounts of rainfall, but the largest change is how this rainfall is packaged up — it's concentrated in more rapid, extreme events — larger and bigger storms.»

Model simulations of 20th century global warming typically use actual observed amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...) climate - forcing factors.

We show elsewhere (8) that a forcing of 1.08 W / m2 yields a warming of 3/4 °C by 2050 in transient climate simulations with a model having equilibrium sensitivity of 3/4 °C per W / m2.

«Despite being very warm, 2014 still leaves the observed warming in the lower part of the range of climate model simulations.»

Studies such as Otto et al. (2012) display how the numerical scale of the simulation numbers allows for clear separation between a climate with lower level of heat - trapping gases (1960s) and the recent period (2000s), such that the 2010 heat wave in western Russia was more likely to occur with the additional warming due to climate change (Figure 3).

«One demanding test of the validity of the computer simulations of the climate of the earth is based on temperature records from the Arctic... When tested against the Arctic temperature record, therefore, the computer forecasts are seen to exaggerate the projected warming by a large amount.»

Many climate model simulations focus on the amount of warming caused by emissions sustained over decades or centuries, but the timing of temperature increases caused by particular emission has been largely overlooked.

Large warm bias can hinder models» fidelity of climate simulations and their future projections.

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.

Simulations including an increased solar activity over the last century give a CO2 initiated warming of 0.2 ˚C and a solar influence of 0.54 ˚C over this period, corresponding to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 0.6 ˚C (doubling of CO2) and a solar sensitivity of 0.5 ˚C (0.1 % increase of the solar constant).

However, satellite observations are notably cooler in the lower troposphere than predicted by climate models, and the research team in their paper acknowledge this, remarking: «One area of concern is that on average... simulations underestimate the observed lower stratospheric cooling and overestimate tropospheric warming... These differences must be due to some combination of errors in model forcings, model response errors, residual observational inhomogeneities, and an unusual manifestation of natural internal variability in the observations.»

First, most climate simulations, including ours above and those of IPCC [1], do not include slow feedbacks such as reduction of ice sheet size with global warming or release of greenhouse gases from thawing tundra.

M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are allowed to vary, thus yielding a probability distribution for global warming as a function of time throughout the 21st century.

Because this issue continues to affect all coupled ocean - atmosphere models (e.g., 22 — 24), the warming (Fig. 3) represents the expression of positive biotic feedback mechanisms missing from earlier simulations of these climates obtained with prescribed PI concentrations of trace GHGs.

We show elsewhere (8) that a forcing of 1.08 W / m2 yields a warming of 3/4 °C by 2050 in transient climate simulations with a model having equilibrium sensitivity of 3/4 °C per W / m2.

Simulations including an increased solar activity over the last century give a CO2 initiated warming of 0.2 ˚C and a solar influence of 0.54 ˚C over this period, corresponding to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 0.6 ˚C (doubling of CO2) and a solar sensitivity of 0.5 ˚C (0.1 % increase of the solar constant).

Polar amplification of warming arises because the initial baseline simulations underrepresent the warmth of ancient greenhouse climates.

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

Simulations conducted in advance of the 2013 — 14 assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the warming should have continued at an average rate of 0.21 °C per decade from 1998 to 2012.

Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng & Julie M. Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2357.html): «The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000's is not evident in the multi-modal ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations.»

In the GISS «committed climate change» simulations, most of the additional warming has occured by 2050, but there remains a slow increase for decades afterwards.

I followed up by asking whether broad powerful fronts like those seen in the video emerge in climate simulations used to assess the impacts of greenhouse warming.

Kosaka and Xie made global climate simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific Ocean temperatures; they found that the model simulated well the observed global warming slowdown or «hiatus,» although this experiment does not identify the cause of Pacific Ocean temperature trends.

The same simulations found that — were the world to achieve the 1.5 °C global warming limit which 195 nations agreed upon at the Paris climate summit in 2015 — then the Mediterranean region would experience only 3.2 months of drought.

Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.

For instance, perfect initialization of the state of the Atlantic ocean, a correct simulation of the next 10 years of the solar cycle, a proper inclusion of stratospheric water vapor, etc may be important for whether the next 5 years are warmer than the previous 5, but it has nothing to do with climate sensitivity, water vapor feedback, or other issues.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf The Physical Flaws of the Global Warming Theory and Deep Ocean Circulation Changes as the Primary Climate Driver The water vapor, cloud, and condensation - evaporation assumptions within the conventional AGW theory and the (GCM) simulations are incorrectly designed to block too much infrared (IR) radiation to space.

Fyfe and colleagues (2013) find that the observed warming over the periods 1993 - 2012 and 1998 - 2012 is significantly less than the warming in climate model simulations, but that the same models successfully simulate the rate of warming over the 1900 - 2012 period.

A realistic treatment of the hydrologic cycle would show that the influence of a doubling of CO2 should lead to a global surface warming of only about 0.3 °C — not the 3 °C warming as indicated by the climate simulations....

There is a couple tenths of a W / m2 of long - term solar forcing (warming) that is inferred the observed changes in the sunspot cycle (which we include in our climate simulations, including the UV variations).

Large - eddy simulation (LES) of clouds can help resolve one of the most important and challenging question in climate dynamics, namely, how subtropical low clouds respond to global warming.

Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for u, it remains almost time - invariant for a wide range of twenty - first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century.

If only GHG forcing is used, without aerosols, the surface temperature in the last decade or so is about 0.3 - 0.4 C higher than observations; adding in aerosols has a cooling effect of about 0.3 - 0.4 C (and so cancelling out a portion of the GHG warming), providing a fairly good match between the climate model simulations and the observations.

These observations, together with computer model simulations and historical climate reconstructions from ice cores, ocean sediments and tree rings all provide strong evidence that the majority of the warming over the past century is a result of human activities.

Moreover, it also includes a number of detection and attribution studies, the IPCC's «gold standard» in terms of inferring climate change and establishing consistency of AO - GCM simulations of greenhouse gas induced warming with observations.

As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).

As a result of the significant scientific effort to date, aided by public concern, models simulating climate change have gained considerable skill... There will be many scientific and technical challenges along the way, but the hope is that simulations of the global environment will be able to maximise the number of people around the world who can adapt to, and be protected from the worst impacts of, global warming.

# 5: Global climate model simulations that include greenhouse gases indicate that the magnitude of warming that would be expected from greenhouse gas increases is at least as large as the observed warming.

FORTRAN source code and documentation for the 1980s version of the GISS global climate model, used in the original NASA GISS global warming simulations described in Hansen et al. (1988).

Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or hiatus in the warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17 years; longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.

«In 1994, Nature magazine published a study of mine in which we estimated the underlying rate at which the world was warming by removing the impacts of volcanoes and El Niños (Christy and McNider 1994)... The result of that study indicated the underlying trend for 1979 - 1993 was +0.09 °C / decade which at the time was one third the rate of warming that should have been occurring according to estimates by climate model simulations.»

The most notable new result is the finding that the tropical Pacific has warmed significantly more slowly (and maybe not at all near the equator) than the rest of the world over this time, a feature that is not captured by most climate models simulations of 20th century climate changes.