Sentences with phrase «simulations over the historical period»

Marvel et al. reached this conclusion from analysing the response of the GISS - E2 - R climate model in simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) when driven by six individual forcings, and also by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» simulation.

They do this by simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) driven by individual forcings, and by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» simulation.

Not exact matches

Using the 4 % rule and historical inflation with 4.02 % mean and 1.32 % standard deviation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI - U) data from January 1972 to December 2016, the simulation calculated an 86.23 % chance of success over a 30 - year period.

This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.

Here we apply such a method using near surface air temperature observations over the 1851 — 2010 period, historical simulations of the response to changing greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings, and simulations of future climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2).

Hydrologic simulation is performed by driving the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the Pacific Northwest region, for historical and future time periods.

an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006 - 2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998 - 2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble... During the 15 - year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model - simulated trends whereas during the 15 - year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends.

Each simulation was subject to an identical scenario of historical «radiative forcing» (effectively an identical scenario of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase over the period) but each was started from a very slightly different atmospheric state — that is, with an almost infinitesimal difference in the initial value of global temperature.

I wonder, if only as many as 3 in 114 CMIP5 historical simulations produce a trend that's lower than HadCRUT4, and hence, possibly, an (at least) 15 + years pause, how many of them would show at least one such pause, or already have done so, over periods either (slightly) earlier or later than the 1998 - 2012 period.

Although Marvel et al. do not mention the very low efficacy of solar forcing in their simulations, this appears to have more effect on ERF efficacy for the sum of forcings over the historical period than does low volcanic efficacy.

Over the 1850 - 2005 period of the GISS - E2 - R historical simulations, the total reduction in downwelling solar forcing from eruptions is given as — 59 watt - years.

And they are: the standard deviation of the mean global temperature over the last 50 years of the historical period for the runs making up the simulation ensemble for each single forcing is 0.02 C or less.