I have found Professor Robert Shiller's P / E10 to be the best
single measure of valuation so far.
[I have found Professor Robert Shiller's P / E10 to be the best
single measure of valuation so far.
Not exact matches
There will always be conceptual issues with any
single valuation measure, so the best we can do is evaluate
valuations from the standpoint
of multiple historically reliable approaches.
At Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual shareholders meeting, an investor asked Buffett about the relevance
of two popular
measures of stock market value: 1) market cap - to - GDP, which Buffett once heralded as «probably the best
single measure of where
valuations stand at any given moment» and 2) the cyclically - adjusted price - earnings ratio (CAPE), which was made famous by Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller and was seen as accurately predicting the dot - com bubble and the housing bubble.
In 2001, the Oracle
of Omaha dubbed it as ``... the best
single measure of where
valuations stand at any given moment.»
Almost all
of the factors and smart beta strategies exhibit a negative relationship between starting
valuation and subsequent performance whether we use the aggregate
measure or P / B to define relative
valuation.9 Out
of 192 tests shown here, not a
single test has the «wrong» sign: in every case, the cheaper the factor or strategy gets, relative to its historical average, the more likely it is to deliver positive performance.10 For most factors and strategies (two - thirds
of the 192 tests) the relationship holds with statistical significance for horizons ranging from one month to five years and using both
valuation measures (44 %
of these results are significant at the 1 % level).
Warren Buffett stated that market capitalization as a percentage
of GDP is «probably the best
single measure of where
valuations stand at any given moment.»
Principle
of contribution - A
valuation principle that states that the value
of any component
of a property is
measured by how much it adds to the net income (or market value if the subject property is a
single family dwelling) by reason
of its presence, or detracts from the net income (or market value) by reason
of its absence.