Instead, I'm trying to superimpose «reverse engineering» of a highly complex mechanical system (motor / gears) ===== there are an infinite number of «black boxes» that will recreate the past perfectly, but have
no skill at forecasting the future.
All academic research shows that we have pathetically little
skill at forecasting the overall market on a consistent, year in, year out basis with anything approaching reliable accuracy.
Not exact matches
Updated August 2017 job numbers for BBG Ventures submitted to the Ulster County Industrial Development Agency
forecast 65 full - time equivalent (FTE) jobs by the third year of operation, 40 of them professional, managerial or
skilled workers whose average pay plus benefits were estimated
at around $ 54,000 a year.
At present, there is very limited
skill in such long - term
forecasts.
A student's Quantile measure helps to
forecast their ability to successfully learn mathematical concepts and master
skills (Quantile Skills and Concepts or QSCs) at the introductory level with classroom instru
skills (Quantile
Skills and Concepts or QSCs) at the introductory level with classroom instru
Skills and Concepts or QSCs)
at the introductory level with classroom instruction.
However, a new study by Doblas - Reyes and co-authors
at the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF)-- the «European weather centre» — suggests that by updating the greenhouse conditions with the observed annual mean values, the skill of the seasonal forecasts improve no
Forecasts (ECMWF)-- the «European weather centre» — suggests that by updating the greenhouse conditions with the observed annual mean values, the
skill of the seasonal
forecasts improve no
forecasts improve noticeably.
A whole lot of observers would be happier if the modelers could prove that even such conditional
forecasts have
skill at a decade or two out.
If the projections have no
skill at predicting changes in regional climate statstics, but we give these changed
forecasts to the impact and policy communities implying they are robust, we are not being honest with them.
forecast lead - time
at which the continuous ranked probability
skill score (CRPSS) for ENS probabilistic
forecasts of 24 - hour total precipitation reaches 10 % for the extra-tropics (northern and southern hemispheres); verification against station observations
Whether their
skills at hindcasting (most model efforts) or
forecasting (Hansen) are «good» or «bad» is a matter of judgment, but it's not controversial that they should be improved.
I believe this
forecast has equal or greater
skill at this lead time than the Schröder et al. method.
One student of the subject suggested that building a weather
forecasting engine with very
skill at 90 day ranges would falsify it.
(Compare that to an anomaly persistence
forecast which has zero
skill at this lead time.)
They show «no
skill»
at either hindcasting or
forecasting outside that.
Predictions account for natural variability...
Forecasts are experimental, so
at this early stage of development
skill levels vary from place to place and for different variables.
In the 20 year linear trend test I had done earlier that returned about the same
skill as Hansen I had looked
at the
skill in actually
forecasting Hadcrut3, not just the trend.
A surf report provider can create a new
skill for Alexa that lets customers ask for the latest conditions
at their favorite break by saying «Alexa, ask Surf Status for my local
forecast.»
Core Competencies: Highly
skilled at building and executing Strategic Business Plans, Driving Sales Performance and Delivering Sales
Forecasts, Coaching and Development, Training, Sales Leadership, Business Acumen, Innovation, Building Winning and Accountable Cultures, Talent Development and Recruiting, Process Improvements, Product Management, Market Analysis, Performance Management, Strategic Planning, P&L Management, Project Management, New Business Development, Key Opinion Leader Development, Facilitation and Public Speaking.
Possesses superior analytical and communication
skills, practiced
at drilling down to transaction workflow details in support of process and profit improvement; Collaborates effectively with business managers to resolve variances, refine
forecasts, and identify opportunities for improvement; Computer proficient in Microsoft Office, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Access, ACCPAC systems, and QuickBooks (Intuit).
Production Line Worker — Billings Products and Manufacture, St. Louis, MO — 3/2008 — 9/2013 • Ensured all products observed government regulations, environmental codes, and high company standards • Applied exceptional welding and alignment
skills to fabricate, assemble, and repair individual parts • Received Employee of the Year Award for three consecutive years for maintaining the highest record of production in the factory • Provided equipment and machine analysis to
forecast production quality and speed with a consistent record of 95 percent accuracy • Organized, prepared, and labeled boxes and containers for shipping, ensuring quotas were met and all orders were fulfilled • Maintained a sanitized and safe working environment
at all times, identifying and removing hazards when necessary
• Competent in researching competitive products by accurately identifying and evaluating product characteristics and market shares • Effectively able to plan trade shows by efficiently coordinating requirements, establishing contacts and developing schedules •
Skilled in monitoring budgets by effectively comparing and analyzing actual results with designated
forecasts • Adept
at supervising social media outreach programs and coordinating and delivering email campaigns
Accomplished Sales / Sales Management Executive
skilled at marketing a diverse product line through direct sales channels and dealer / distributor channels... Recognized ability to lead market expansion efforts and consistently exceed quotas... Exceptional Strategic Planning, Corporate Infrastructure Development,
Forecasting and Negotiating
Skills... Strong record of developing long - term, profitable executive level relationships......
• Highly experienced in determining clients» advertising needs by interviewing them in detail and coming up with effective plans to meet these needs • Hands - on experience in gathering and organizing information to assist in decision making procedures, particularly related to media placement and campaign lengths • Proven ability to effectively and efficiently prepare advertising budgets, calendars and project schedules • Deep insight into recommending creative concept revisions in sync with clients» dynamic advertising needs • Effectively able to plan and implement advertising and promotional campaigns to meet market share increase requirements • Demonstrated ability to initiate market research and analysis to determine market opportunities for business • Proficient in developing pricing strategies for products and services in sync with competitive pricing standards • Competent in monitoring and analyzing sales promotion results to determine cost effectiveness of running advertising campaigns • Adept
at tracking advertising budgets and expenses to evaluate each campaign module based on program objectives • Qualified to plan and prepare advertising materials to increases sales of products and services • Excellent
skills in setting advertising goals and
forecasts, driving key initiatives and projects and ensuring revenue growth through well - placed advertising efforts
At least 2 years of bookkeeping experience in Professional Services (IT) or Digital Agency Industry Experience working with any form or type of accounting program (i.e. Quickbooks, NetSuite and etc.) Bank reconciliation experience Microsoft Office or / and Gmail experience a must (Google Sheets / Doc) Maintain business insurances Ensure timely processing for semi-monthly payroll Ensure timely processing for commission reports Financial
forecasting for end of year projections Budgeting for month to month expenses Keep Track of Sales Commissions / Projects Profitability Excellent communication and interpersonal
skills Ability to work in a fast - paced environment Works well under pressure and tight deadlines Experience working as part of a team is a plus Quick learner Self - starter
• Excellent computer
skills with complete expertise in MS Office suite and photoshop • Familiar with brand projection, business analysis and competitive market research • Adept
at assisting in implementation of planned marketing projects and designs •
Skilled in review and verification of volume
forecasts and new product launch campaigns • Able to develop print / electronic promotional material designed to meet the given marketing goals
¥ Admirable experience planning managing and implementing various civil projects ¥ Adept
at preparing detailed financial models and budget
forecasts ¥ Sound knowledge of local codes and industry standard construction guidelines ¥ Solid ability to obtain Department of Defense clearance as necessary ¥ Impressive ability to inspire team members and coordinate efforts ¥ Superlative written and verbal communications
skills ¥ Strong organizational
skills