The sloping dashed line in the figure, indicating
slight cooling over the past millennium, did rely on data that were sparse and difficult to analyze.
They were poor in forecasting (or «projecting») decadal warming: 0.2 C per decade (AR4) or 0.15 to 0.3 C per decade (TAR), compared to an actually observed
slight cooling over the most recent decade.
But floods eventually return to the sea and the continued rise in sea level over the last ten years is a difficult datum to square with claims of no warming or
slight cooling over the last decade.
There was no warming or even
a slight cooling over the second half of the 19C and between (roughly) 1940 and 1975, those would seem to me to be long enough periods to say that the previous upward tends had come to an end.
«In fact, as NASA's Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC's implied best guess was that humans were responsible for around 110 % of observed warming (ranging from 72 % to 146 %), with natural factors in isolation leading to
a slight cooling over the past 50 years.»
There's been no surface warming for over 15 years and
slight cooling over the last decade.
Interestingly, the paper «Climate Trends and Global food production since 1980» (Lobell, Schlenker, Costa - Roberts, in Sciencexpress, 5 May, Science 1204531) confirms my finding of the absence of climate change in the USA: «A notable exception to the [global] warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 % of global maize and soybean and experienced
a slight cooling over the period... the country with largest overall share of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse] effect due to the lack of significant climate trends».
Although there is no stat sig diff among the means, the data suggests
a slight cooling over the century.
The latest study also found that for the period 1969 to 2000, there has been
slight cooling over East Antarctica.
Not exact matches
It is important to recognize that the widely - cited «Antarctic
cooling» appears, from the limited data available, to be restricted only to the last two decades, and that averaged
over the last 40 years, there has been a
slight warming (e.g. Bertler et al. 2004.
Isn't a flat, or
slight cooling trend in the surface data
over the last 3 years some «good» news to crow about?
Restricting their analysis to 1969 to 2000, a period for which other studies have found a net
cooling trend, Steig's study found
slight cooling in east Antarctica, but net warming
over west Antarctica.
The nameless kid you control frequently gets lost in animation loops that can't be broken, every change of direction or
slight incline another excuse for the animation team to show you something they think is
cool when all you really want is to carry on playing a game without being shown another Vine of a kid falling
over.
«We show that the climate
over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even
slight cooling in the presence of longer - term warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point of view.»
Isn't a flat, or
slight cooling trend in the surface data
over the last 3 years some «good» news to crow about?
Based on this, the longer term planning should probably be based (from the available evidence) on an assumption of a measurable increase in temperature
over the next 15 - 20 years, with the uncertainty being in the range «
slight cooling» to «significant warming».
This shift and the subsequent
slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a
slight cooling trend
over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 yr «pause».
And in terms of our current interglacial period, there has much warmer periods during this time, and that the long trend
over 8000 year period has been a
slight cooling.
So despite
over a century of a CO2 - induced warming effect, these other factors helped mitigate this warming effect from about the 1940s to 1970s, resulting in
slight global
cooling.
U.S. sees «
slight cooling trend» since 2005 — NOAA shows «the pause» in the U.S. surface temperature record
over nearly a decade — U.S.
cools from 2005 through 2014:
In
over 6,000 words it covers a wide range of reasons why carbon dioxide can have no warming effect and only a
slight cooling effect.
I've already analysed trends and predicted
slight cooling till 2028, then 30 years of warming, but long - term (500 years) of
cooling starting in about 50 to 200 years from now, such as from the MWP to the LIA — about 2.5 degrees in total
over 500 years.
In particular, P trends in northern Europe (Scandinavia and Scotland) and in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea can change sign, while SAT trends
over northern Europe and Russia can range from near zero or even
slight cooling to
over 4 °C, depending on the polarity of the 2σ NAO trend.
In fact, a
slight cooling has been the trend
over this period.
Natural temperature influences have had a very
slight cooling effect, and natural internal variability appears to have had a fairly significant
cooling effect
over the past decade, but little temperature influence
over longer timeframes.
One year of the second decade has already expired, with again no warming (in fact
slight cooling), so it will take a rate of a bit more that 0.4 C per decade
over the next 9 years to arrive at the forecast level averaged
over both decades.
As can be seen from the curve below, the HadCRUT3 «globally and annually averaged land and sea surface temperature anomaly» shows
slight (if statistically insignificant)
cooling over the past 15 years (180 months).
IF the sun really has started a couple of slower than average solar cycles, and IF the current
slight cooling trend continues or becomes even more pronounced
over the next couple of decades, we can bury the CAGW scare, along with all the other doomsday scenarios and scares that preceded it.
My general line is this: For the last century, we've had ever - so -
slight warming trends and ever - so -
slight cooling trends every 30 years or so, and I don't think either are anything worth collapsing the global economy
over.
«This shift and the subsequent
slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a
slight cooling trend
over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 [year] «pause»,» she added.
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH... the official thermometers at the U.S. National Climate Data Center show a
slight global
cooling trend
over the last seven years, from 1998 to 2005.
In the picontrol - initialised run thermosteric sea level drops
over the first half of the run, hence ocean
cooling, whereas the past1000yr - initialised run produces a
slight upward trend.
These simulations yield little warming, or even a
slight cooling,
over the 20th century.
Professor Mark Steyn just
over five years ago:... «If you mean the argument on «global warming,» my general line is this: For the last century, we've had ever - so -
slight warming trends and ever - so -
slight cooling trends every 30 years or so, and I don't think either are anything worth collapsing the global economy
over... «Then from 1940 to 1970 there was a
slight cooling trend.
Examination of the temperature record
over this period shows a
slight cooling, peaking in 1992 - 1993, but these temperatures were certainly not â $ ˜unprecedentedâ $ ™, nor did they exceed the bounds of observed variability, yet it is well accepted that the
cooling was attributable to the eruption.
These factors contributed to very
slight cooling of global temperatures
over the past 32 years, with the execption of UAH, for which they have had no net impact on the trend.
Regarding clouds, recent trends suggest a
slight decline in total cloud cover
over several decades, due to a reduction in low clouds, which exert a net
cooling influence, while high cirrus clouds, which are net warmers, have remained relatively constant.
For example, atmospheric GCM simulations driven by reconstructed SSTs from the Pliocene Research Interpretations and Synoptic Mapping Group (Dowsett et al., 1996; Dowsett et al., 2005) produced winter surface air temperature warming of 10 °C to 20 °C at high northern latitudes with 5 °C to 10 °C increases
over the northern North Atlantic (~ 60 ° N), whereas there was essentially no tropical surface air temperature change (or even
slight cooling)(Chandler et al., 1994; Sloan et al., 1996; Haywood et al., 2000, Jiang et al., 2005).
Easterling and Wehner (2009) showed that «the climate
over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even
slight cooling in the presence of longer - term warming.»
We have seen a total linear warming of 0.041 C per decade or 0.66 C
over the entire 160 - year HadCRUT record (this has occurred in 3 statistically indistinguishable 30 - year warming cycles, with 30 - year cycles of
slight cooling in between, as Girma has shown us graphically).
But just as one warm day in October does not negate a
cooling trend toward winter, a
slight annual gain in sea ice extent
over a record low does not negate the long - term decline.
After a somewhat surprising early - summer
cool down, and the
slight bounce - back we spoke about in August's real estate update for Snoqualmie Ridge, it appears we've picked up momentum again, as homes sales for pre-owned, single - family homes in August jumped up, with more closings than we've seen in
over a year!