This is due to
the slow changes in ocean currents which affect climate parameters such as air temperature and precipitation.
«Much of our confidence stems from the fact that our model does well at predicting
slow changes in ocean heat transport and sea surface temperature in the sub-polar North Atlantic, and these appear to impact the rate of sea ice loss.
This is due to
the slow changes in ocean currents which affect climate parameters such as air temperature and precipitation.
Not exact matches
Now it seems swirling eddies
in the
ocean are mathematically the same — and could help to
slow climate
change.
Climate
change impacts
in the deep
ocean are less visible, but the longevity and
slow pace of life
in the deep makes that ecosystem uniquely sensitive to environmental variability.
SAN FRANCISCO — The specter of climate
change has prompted radical ideas, such as pumping CO2 into the deep
ocean to
slow its buildup
in the air.
Climate
change is playing a major role
in the
slowing down of the circulation of the Atlantic
Ocean.
Oceans are very
slow to respond to temperature
changes, which is
in part why it's so unlikely 2015 will lose the race for warmest year.
It leads to sea level rise of several meters,
changes in ocean circulation,
slow - down of AMOC etc..
When I explore this landscape I find myself connecting with the textures and patterns that nature provides, finding interest
in detritus that washes ashore, both organic and
in - organic, for even the smallest of objects contain the beauty of randomness and irregularity.We live
in one of the most dynamic environments on the planet, where
ocean meets land; ever
changing, our lives are deeply connected to this place where tides ebb and flow revealing aggregate shapes, leaving imprints, and proving that time is both fast and
slow.
Guemas et al. (Nature Climate
Change 2013) shows that the slower warming of the last ten years can not be explained by a change in the radiative balance of our Earth, but rather by a change in the heat storage of the oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño in the initialization of the m
Change 2013) shows that the
slower warming of the last ten years can not be explained by a
change in the radiative balance of our Earth, but rather by a change in the heat storage of the oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño in the initialization of the m
change in the radiative balance of our Earth, but rather by a
change in the heat storage of the oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño in the initialization of the m
change in the heat storage of the
oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño
in the initialization of the models.
Given that the cryosphere and
oceans are far better long - term indicators of
changes in Earth's energy balance than the much more «noisy» troposphere, for anyone to suggest that the warming of the Earth system has
slowed or stopped over the past 10 years, means they are purposely ignoring the far bigger heat sinks of the cryrosphere and
oceans, or they simply want to spout nonsense.
There has been an overwhelming popular demand for us to weigh
in on recent reports
in the Times Britain faces big chill as
ocean current
slows and CNN
Changes in Gulf Stream could chill Europe (note the interesting shift
in geographical perspective!).
Because the drains out of the various bathtubs involved
in the climate — atmospheric concentrations, the heat balance of the surface and
oceans, ice sheet accumulations, and thermal expansion of the
oceans — are small and
slow, the emissions we generate
in the next few decades will lead to
changes that, on any time scale we can contemplate, are irreversible.
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a recent NASA publication concluding that deep
ocean temperatures have not increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-
ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do not question the overall science of climate
change, it is the latest
in a series of findings that show global warming to have
slowed considerably during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth
in human - produced greenhouse gas emissions during the same time.»
I also used my implementation to break up a quick land response from a
slow ocean response to see if the
change in sign of the derived temperature derivative coming at a place where it is not intersecting the instantaneous temperature might be explained by the derived temperature being an average.
Ideas that commonly surface include perturbations to the earth's orbit by other planets, disruptions of
ocean currents, the rise and fall of greenhouse gases, heat reflection by snow, continental drift, comet impacts, Genesis floods, volcanoes, and
slow changes in the irradiance of the sun.
During
slow natural
changes, the carbon system
in the
oceans has time to interact with sediments and stays therefore approximately
in steady state with them.
I'm not a climate
change denier, and I can see that a fast rise
in acidity
in the
ocean is much worse than a
slower rise because a
slower rise might give sea creatures time to adapt evolutionarily.
However it is unlikely that the past atmospheric concentrations would have led to a significantly lower pH
in the
oceans, as the rate at which atmospheric CO2
changed in the past was much
slower compared with the modern day.
I'd also check emissivity
changes during the dark nights
in the Arctic, smoothed
ocean cools
slower.
The former alternative means that Australia fails to do its share
in slowing climate
change and
ocean acidification.
The Atlantic
Ocean circulation that carries warmth into the Northern Hemisphere's high latitudes is
slowing down because of climate
change - and is at its weakest point
in the past 1,600 years.
The truly worrisome thing about all this is that the
ocean is an extremely
slow moving machine and that once
in motion, it's difficult to stop or
change its course.
, lightning related insurance claims, Lyme disease, Malaria, malnutrition, Maple syrup shortage, marine diseases, marine food chain decimated, Meaching (end of the world), megacryometeors, Melanoma, methane burps, melting permafrost, migration, microbes to decompose soil carbon more rapidly, more bad air days, more research needed, mountains break up, mudslides, next ice age, Nile delta damaged, no effect
in India, nuclear plants bloom,
ocean acidification, outdoor hockey threatened, oyster diseases, ozone loss, ozone repair
slowed, ozone rise, pests increase, plankton blooms, plankton loss, plant viruses, polar tours scrapped, psychosocial disturbances, railroad tracks deformed, rainfall increase, rainfall reduction, refugees, release of ancient frozen viruses, resorts disappear, rift on Capitol Hill, rivers raised, rivers dry up, rockfalls, rocky peaks crack apart, Ross river disease, salinity reduction, Salmonella, sea level rise, sex
change, ski resorts threatened, smog, snowfall increase, snowfall reduction, societal collapse, songbirds
change eating habits, sour grapes, spiders invade Scotland, squid population explosion, spectacular orchids, tectonic plate movement, ticks move northward (Sweden), tides rise, tree beetle attacks, tree foliage increase (UK), tree growth
slowed, trees less colourful, trees more colourful, tropics expansion, tsunamis, Venice flooded, volcanic eruptions, walrus pups orphaned, wars over water, water bills double, water supply unreliability, water scarcity (20 % of increase), weeds, West Nile fever, whales move north, wheat yields crushed
in Australia, white Christmas dream ends, wildfires, wine — harm to Australian industry, wine industry damage (California), wine industry disaster (US), wine — more English, wine — no more French, wind shift, winters
in Britain colder, wolves eat more moose, wolves eat less, workers laid off, World bankruptcy, World
in crisis, Yellow fever.
(The equilibrium referred to is that of the
ocean — it doesn't include very
slow changes in polar ice sheets, etc.) Obviously, the upper tail of the estimated distribution for S is important, not just its central value.
Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity
in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from
changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice,
slower surface albedo feedbacks from
changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate — GHG feedbacks from
changes in natural (land and
ocean) carbon sinks.
My opinion expressed elsewhere is that almost all the temperature
changes we observe over periods of less than a century are caused by cyclical
changes in the rate of energy emission from the
oceans with the solar effect only providing a
slow background trend of warming or cooling for several centuries at a time.
The
slowed surface warming is due
in large part to
changes in ocean cycles, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, causing more efficient ocean heat uptake, thus leaving less heat to warm surface temperat
ocean cycles, particularly
in the Pacific
Ocean, causing more efficient ocean heat uptake, thus leaving less heat to warm surface temperat
Ocean, causing more efficient
ocean heat uptake, thus leaving less heat to warm surface temperat
ocean heat uptake, thus leaving less heat to warm surface temperatures.
What I am not clear on is what has
changed in the last few years to cause more heat to be captured by the
oceans and less
in the atmosphere with the resultant
slower rate of surface or atmospheric warming.
With the recent decline
in solar flux and the shift to cool phases of
ocean oscillations, natural climate
change suggests that although glacier retreat and sea level rise will likely continue over the next few decades, the rates of sea level rise and glacier retreats will
slow down.The next decade will provide the natural experiment to test the validity of competing hypotheses.
While the warming of global surface temperatures has
slowed somewhat, that appears to primarily be due to
changing ocean cycles, particularly
in the Pacific.
In light of such uncertainty, Eyre said, the best course of action is to continue working to
slow ocean acidification, and climate
change generally, before its effects grow too much worse.
To point out just a couple of things: —
oceans warming
slower (or cooling
slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that
oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase
change inside
oceans, so no latent heat) or
oceans begin to release heat but
in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that
in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while
oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but,
in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part
in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming
slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured
in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity
in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase
in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live
in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can
slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI
in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but,
in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least
in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough
in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
How such a warming would impact the probability of irreversible
changes to elements of the climate system (melting ice sheets, reversal or
slowing of
ocean currents, release of carbon
in permafrost) is unknown.
You don't think perhaps that celestial cycles just might have an effect on magma currents (yes just like the
ocean, just
slower) and that effect translates to
changes in sea - floor seismic activity from time to time?
Slow variations
in upper
ocean heat content that have been observed
in the subpolar and marginal ice zone regions of the Atlantic since the mid-twentieth century are thought to be related to
changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
For example, a recent
slowing in the rate of surface air temperature rise appears to be related to cyclic
changes in the
oceans and
in the sun's energy output, as well as a series of small volcanic eruptions and other factors.
Indeed, the long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon
in the climate system and persistence of the
ocean warming ensure that «
slow» feedbacks, such as ice sheet disintegration,
changes of the global vegetation distribution, melting of permafrost, and possible release of methane from methane hydrates on continental shelves, would also have time to come into play.
The fast uptake to
oceans is likely to
slow down gradually due to
changes in ocean chemistry, but the
slower processes will gradually have more and more importance.
The only thing that I would contend could be added would be long
slow cumulative
changes in solar output other than raw TSI namely
changes in the mix of particles and wavelengths over longer periods of time such as MWP to LIA to date and which seem to have some effect on surface pressure distribution and global albedo so as to alter solar shortwave into the
oceans and thus affecting the energy available to the ENSO process.
The net carbon
in the atmosphere is about 2.5 % of the carbon
in solution
in the
ocean so the
change in the
ocean will be
slow (CO2 can only diffuse from the atmosphere into the
ocean at the surface).
Climate
change commitment - Due to the thermal inertia of the
ocean and
slow processes
in the biosphere, the cryosphere and land surfaces, the climate would continue to
change even if the atmospheric composition were held fixed at today's values.
The remaining
slow drift to lower GMT and pCO2 over glacial time, punctuated by higher - frequency variability and the dust − climate feedbacks, may reflect the consequences of the growth of continental ice sheets via albedo increases (also from vegetation
changes) and increased CO2 dissolution
in the
ocean from cooling.
-- Other processes are very
slow in change: vegetation area increase / decrease,
ocean overturning rate, rock weathering,..
What's happening
in Berlin, Alaska is what climate scientists describe as
slow - onset climate
change event, such as sea level rise or
ocean acidification.
One question posed by climate
change is «will melting land ice and sea ice
in the Arctic
slow down or even shut down a vital part of the
ocean circulation
in the North Atlantic?»
The essential condition may be orbital cycles and
slow changes in insolation
in high latitudes — but the glacial trigger is likely to be warmth itself freshening and warming the Arctic
ocean.
I believe the IPCC plans all call for a black box solution where we develop a technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or
ocean to drive the CO2 levels or to at least
slow the rise of CO2 and give us more time to make fundamental
changes in the way we live to limit global warming to some arbitrary level.
Just for one example, if it turns out that, between melt of sea ice and Greenland ice, the North Atlantic Current
slows or stops, we would expect to see fairly dramatically colder weather
in Europe for a while, even thought this condition could be directly linked to results produced by GW (though
in the long term, the warming would, presumably eventually overtake the cooling from
change in ocean currents).