But a new report suggests that tackling emissions of two other short - lasting pollutants — methane and the black component of soot — could
slow expected warming by a full 0.5 ˚C beyond what targeting CO2 alone could accomplish by 2070.
Not exact matches
Analysis of the first seven years of data from a NASA cloud - monitoring mission suggests clouds are doing less to
slow the
warming of the planet than previously thought, and that temperatures may rise faster than
expected as greenhouse gas pollution worsens — perhaps 25 percent faster.
What scientists discovered in 2014 is that since the turn of the century, oceans have been absorbing more of global
warming's heat and energy than would normally be
expected, helping to
slow rates of
warming on land.
Expect gentle
warming stretching on the floor,
slow easy sun salutations, a focus on alignment, the breath, and creating spaciousness.
His voice, however, sounds exactly as you would
expect it to:
warm,
slow, ever so slightly nervous.
With the current El Niño weather event
expected to continue bringing
warm water over the rest of the winter, this
slow - motion catastrophe is likely to continue.
The inclusion of a negative b value for the first derivative term in the model defies physical rational... more rapid
warming is
expected to correspond to a faster not
slower rate of rise.
However, the ocean is very strongly stratified, and the interaction with the bulk of the deep cold water is very
slow — it is generally the upper ocean that determines the time scale for the transient
warming we might
expect.
My own view is, (a) if we wind up at the lower end of the IPCC
expected warming, maybe we shouldn't be spending large sums to avert it, whereas if we are likely to land at the high end, the costs miht start to get fairly grave (b) nobody has a very good idea how much it would really cost to avert, or
slow, global
warming (hope this doesn't contradict (a)-RRB-.
In terms of the aerosols: If you want to argue really simplistic, you could still explain what is seen in Dave's NH - SH time series: due to the larger thermal inertia of the SH, you would
expect slower warming there with greenhouse gas forcing, so an increase in NH - SH early on, which would then be reduced as aerosol forcing becomes stronger in the NH.
Coinciding with cycles of reduced sea ice, glaciers on the island Novaya Zemlya in the Barents Sea, also underwent their greatest retreat around 1920 to 1940.61 After several decades of stability, its tidewater glaciers began retreating again around the year 2000, but at a rate five times
slower than the 1930s.47 The recent cycle of intruding
warm Atlantic water45 is now waning and if solar flux remains low, we should
expect Arctic sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas to begin a recovery and Arctic glaciers to stabilize within the next 15 years.
The
expected result is not only cleaner skies and possibly
slowing the rate of global
warming, but also creating millions of new jobs in an array of rapidly expanding green - energy sectors.
Other than if there is a sudden
slow down or reversal in temperatures, which I am not
expecting for many years if previous extended eras of
warming are repeated.
By the end of the century, we'd
expect around 4 °C
warming in a world where we didn't take any action to
slow emissions.
Of course, this isn't surprising, the sea will generally be
expected to be
slower to
warm.
I agree that reduction in snow or ice cover resulting from
warming constitutes a likely
slow positive feedback, but its magnitude may be quite small, at least for the modest changes in surface temperature that can be
expected to arise if sensitivity is in fact fairly low, so the Forster / Gregory 06 results may nevertheless be a close approximation to a measurement of equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Given the likelihood that internal variability contributed to the
slowing of global temperature rise in the last decade, we
expect that
warming will resume in the next few years, consistent with predictions from near - term climate forecasts (Smith et al. 2007; Haines et al. 2009).
ocean is of the order of 1000 years, thermal expansion is
expected to be relatively
slow and predictable, although shifts in ocean circulation can influence the details of the
warming and sea - level rise.
While known solar variations are less significant than the
expected effects of enhanced greenhouse
warming, they could either
slow, for a time, or accelerate its eventual impact.
If the sun stays quiet we should soon see the level of atmospheric CO2 stabilise and then begin a
slow decline but since there is a long term lag of some 800 years shown in the historical record between temperature and CO2 amounts we may still be seeing CO2 consequences from the Mediaeval
Warm Period which could skew the figures away from those
expected from current solar variations.
captd, the hot spot is something that comes with tropical ocean heating, which is actually a
slower process than
expected, possibly because elsewhere is
warming faster than
expected (land, Arctic).
Intuitively I would
expect tropospheric
warming to always be a bit
slower than surface
warming — is that what the science says, and climate models predict?
The observed global -
warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of
slowing in the
expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate.
The last time the earth experienced
warming at anything like the pace we now
expect was during the Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum, about 55 million years ago, when temperatures rose by about 11 degrees Fahrenheit over the course of around 20,000 years (which is a much
slower rate than the current pace of
warming).
Just for one example, if it turns out that, between melt of sea ice and Greenland ice, the North Atlantic Current
slows or stops, we would
expect to see fairly dramatically colder weather in Europe for a while, even thought this condition could be directly linked to results produced by GW (though in the long term, the
warming would, presumably eventually overtake the cooling from change in ocean currents).
That is, there is still a fair chance that we can «hold the 2 °C line», if strong mitigation of greenhouse gases is combined with the following three actions: (i) a
slow, rather than instant, elimination of aerosol cooling, (ii) a directed effort to first remove
warming aerosols like black carbon, and (iii) a concerted and sustained programme, over this century, to draw - down excessive CO2 (geo - and bio-engineering) and simultaneously reduce non-CO2 forcings, such that the final equilibrium temperature rise will be lower than would otherwise be
expected on the basis of current concentrations.
Second, this general prediction «'' internal variability leading to
slower than
expected warming in recent years through 2010, followed by accelerated
warming «'' is almost exactly the same prediction that the Hadley Center made last summer in Science (see here).
For example, global action on black carbon and methane can help
slow down
expected warming in 2050 by up to 0.5 degree Celsius and avoid about 2.4 million annual premature deaths and 52 million tonnes of annual crop loss by 2030.