What it ignores are
the slow feedbacks from the ice sheets and the carbon cycle itself — as it treates both as boundary conditions.
Factoring in
slow feedbacks from ice and vegetation changes would generate a significantly higher ECS, likely in the 4 to 6 C (7.2 to 10.8 F) range, the paper notes.
Not exact matches
«We could throw up a quick study for an entrepreneur for $ 10, and within a day get a lot of
feedback from different people about how heavy or light, fast or
slow a logo would be,» he says.
Using information
from pre-historic climate archives, Zeebe calculated how
slow climate
feedbacks (land ice, vegetation, etc.) and climate sensitivity may evolve over time.
«The meltwater
feedback cycle under the ice shelf will only
slow down once the shelf has collapsed, or no more glacial ice flows in
from inland to take its place.
All this discussion of the Schmittner et al paper should not distract
from the point that Hansen and others (including RichardC in # 40 and William P in # 24) try to make: that there seems to be a significant risk that climate sensitivity could be on the higher end of the various ranges, especially if we include the
slower feedbacks and take into account that these could kick in faster than generally assumed.
Plotting GHG forcing (7)
from ice core data (27) against temperature shows that global climate sensitivity including the
slow surface albedo
feedback is 1.5 °C per W / m2 or 6 °C for doubled CO2 (Fig. 2), twice as large as the Charney fast -
feedback sensitivity.»
First, most climate simulations, including ours above and those of IPCC [1], do not include
slow feedbacks such as reduction of ice sheet size with global warming or release of greenhouse gases
from thawing tundra.
It is super critical to make this intentionally
slow in order to get
feedback from the body on what foods are the most tolerable and what foods the body struggles with.
Schools That Lead continue to refine their Teacher and Principal Leadership Initiatives to incorporate the lessons they have learned
from the past three years, including being clearer about the development of an aim statement and theory of action, acknowledging the need to make room to do the improvement work, explicitly examining culture, paying attention to student
feedback, starting small and moving
slow, collecting and analyzing evidence to build warrant, and actively sharing the work — specifically the processes, results, and what worked and what did not work.
Thanks to the different colors and acoustic
feedback used, faster or
slower laps can be spotted out of the corner of the driver's eye without any need to look away
from the track.
Quiet, refined and relaxed, it feels a little softer and more luxurious than the F - PACE and its other mid-size rivals
from Germany on the bitumen, where the air suspension is supple and the steering precise, if a little
slow and lacking in
feedback.
Whether over the original concerns
from parents of expensive device damage and enhanced ebooks being likened to video games, or the young adults» own
feedback that reading was for paper, devices were for socialization, children's publishing even now is awfully
slow to catch up.
Feedback from our readers indicated they often prefer the paper copies because they have challenges downloading large PDF documents when Internet connectivity is limited or
slow.
So if the
feedback you get
from the markets is
slow and unreliable, what's an investor to do?
After finishing the first edition, I got
feedback from peers, and things
slowed down to... Read more»
It would be even
slower without the continual
feedback from the early access community.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a
feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive
feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive
feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient
from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and
slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger
slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts
from AGW?)
Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean — atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades
from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider
slow climate
feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate.
The «
slow feedback» sensitivity is likely to be higher (since carbon cycle, methane and ice sheet
feedbacks are very likely positive), however, estimating that
from paleo is tricky since we are moving into a new regime which hasn't ever happened before.
Further do we know
from proxy records (corals) that the
slow ice sheet
feedback includes non-linear episodes, when ice sheets disintegrate and abruply cause SLR.
I am thinking that the permafrost
feedback article we were discussing was refering to a non-runaway
feedback, but rather a delayed
feedback, which is otherwise just like the fast
feedbacks except that it's
slow response would make clear that it does
feedback on itself according to the climate sensitivity
from all other
feedbacks (it drives itself, via climate change, to go farther, but it approaches a limit asymptotically).
Once the ice reaches the equator, the equilibrium climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2
from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical processes provide a negative
feedback by changing atmospheric CO2 in response to climate changes, but this is generally very
slow, and thus can not prevent faster changes
from faster external forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a runaway in the opposite direction (until the ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined with left - over glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some ice to return).
What applies in the case of the «fast»
feedback from water vapor or sea ice applies in the case of the «
slow»
feedback from the carbon cycle and ice sheets.
Spencer + Braswell have shown that over the tropics on a shorter - term basis, the net overall
feedback from clouds with warming is negative; this is largely due to an increase in reflection of incoming radiation by increased clouds with a smaller effect
from the reduction of energy trapping high altitude clouds, which
slow down outgoing radiation by absorbing and re-radiating energy.
Since there are fast and
slow feedbacks these all need to be studied in order to determine the expected amount of forcing
from each and how these
feedbacks affect each other.
These «
slow feedbacks,» he says, include greenhouse - gas releases
from ecosystems as forests die and permafrost melts.
Based on evidence
from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g.
from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast
feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice,
slower surface albedo
feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate — GHG
feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks.
Huge natural climate changes,
from glacial to interglacial states, have been driven by very weak, very
slow forcings, and positive
feedbacks.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming
slower (or cooling
slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive
feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend
from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it
from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming
slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can
slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
«In our mor recent global model simulations the ocean heat - uptake is
slower than previously estimated, the ocean uptake of carbon is weaker,
feedbacks from the land system as temperature rises are stronger, cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases over the century are higher, and offsetting cooling
from aerosol emissions is lower.
Excluding
slow feedbacks was appropriate for simulations of the past century, because we know the ice sheets were stable then and our climate simulations used observed greenhouse gas amounts that included any contribution
from slow feedbacks.
Indeed, the long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon in the climate system and persistence of the ocean warming ensure that «
slow»
feedbacks, such as ice sheet disintegration, changes of the global vegetation distribution, melting of permafrost, and possible release of methane
from methane hydrates on continental shelves, would also have time to come into play.
I agree that reduction in snow or ice cover resulting
from warming constitutes a likely
slow positive
feedback, but its magnitude may be quite small, at least for the modest changes in surface temperature that can be expected to arise if sensitivity is in fact fairly low, so the Forster / Gregory 06 results may nevertheless be a close approximation to a measurement of equilibrium climate sensitivity.
There are, however, also
slow feedbacks like the change in surface albedo
from the reduction of snow cover that contribute to TCS / ECS.
The remaining
slow drift to lower GMT and pCO2 over glacial time, punctuated by higher - frequency variability and the dust − climate
feedbacks, may reflect the consequences of the growth of continental ice sheets via albedo increases (also
from vegetation changes) and increased CO2 dissolution in the ocean
from cooling.
There are a multitude number of pieces of evidence for this, stemming
from mass balance arguments, changes in isotopes, O2 / N2 ratios, observed changes in carbon in other sources (acting as a sink), paleo - sensitivity studies showing that CO2 is a relatively
slow and weak
feedback (~ 10 ppm / C), etc..
Mitigation plans proposed by governments would
slow down the rate of carbon emissions but continuing emissions as well as
feedbacks from ice melt, warming oceans, methane release and fires would continue to push temperatures upwards.
Recently there have been some studies and comments by a few climate scientists that based on the
slowed global surface warming over the past decade, estimates of the Earth's overall equilibrium climate sensitivity (the total amount of global surface warming in response to the increased greenhouse effect
from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening
feedbacks) may be a bit too high.
DO NOT INCLUDE
SLOW FEEDBACKS such as reduction of ice sheet size with global warming or release of greenhouse gases
from thawing tundra.
First, most climate simulations, including ours above and those of IPCC [1], do not include
slow feedbacks such as reduction of ice sheet size with global warming or release of greenhouse gases
from thawing tundra.
A recent study by the International Energy Agency says relying on gas would lead to a CO2e level of 650 ppm, meaning 4 °C global warming
from fast
feedbacks alone (and 4 °C is surely enough to set off
slow feedbacks causing far more warming after this century).
I'm not sure why you would want a text based course, as I find them incredibly boring, but I've had
feedback from people who say they prefer it (especially if they have a
slow internet connection such as satellite or dial - up).
The limited tactile
feedback of these buttons makes typing
slower and far less satisfying than other keyboards in which the buttons rise higher
from the surface.
Over the course of this fall, we began to receive
feedback from some users who were seeing
slower performance in certain situations.
However, the company has admitted they got
feedback from some customers who pointed out they were seeing
slowing performance.
Hi everyone, We have another Cumulative Update for Windows 10 Mobile Insider Preview Build 10586 which we're releasing today to Windows Insiders in the Fast and
Slow This build continues to address
feedback we've received
from Windows Insiders as well... Read more
Further details were also revealed: the game world has boundaries and is not spherical, as no one knows what lies beyond the sea; the aforementioned mysterious girl, Noi, emerges
from one of the ruins falling
from the sky; gameplay and battle systems have been adjusted in response to
feedback about prior games»
slow pacing; and boss fights were apparently one of the first things the staff designed.
Although it includes a lot of features, MIUI has suffered a lot of negative
feedback from users and developers for being buggy,
slow, and entirely different
from Google's stock Android experience.