I would like to see a discussion of the likelihood that factors traditionally viewed as
slow response feedback factors (such as Arctic albedo, or high methane emissions permafrost degradation) may actually become faster response feedback factors.
Not exact matches
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the
response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast
feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the «
slow»
feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon cycle etc.).
Slow feedbacks have little effect on the immediate planetary energy balance, instead coming into play in
response to temperature change.
The
response time of these
slow feedbacks is uncertain, but there is evidence that some of these
feedbacks already are underway, at least to a minor degree.
Model studies for climate change between the Holocene and the Pliocene, when Earth was about 3 °C warmer, find that
slow feedbacks due to changes of ice sheets and vegetation cover amplified the fast
feedback climate
response by 30 — 50 % [216].
Most judges also noted that the steering
response was rather
slow and didn't provide much
feedback when cornering.
On those same roads, the C 63's steering was not that crisp in Comfort mode, and turn - in was slightly
slower, but the steering
response and
feedback in the enthusiast modes was much better.
The key ideas revolve around the way mutual funds and other asset managers react which makes interest rate movements and markets asymmetric: when rates fall the reactions are
slow and measured, when they rise the
response is accelerate by positive
feedback.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the
response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast
feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the «
slow»
feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon cycle etc.).
Setting aside the effects of the deep ocean, etc, — ie just using a single unified reservoir's heat capacity — and using only fast
feedbacks (I didn't introduce any
slow feedbacks anywhere in this particular series of comments), the expectation based on physics is that each delayed
response T curve (each of which must correspond to a different value of heat capacity, for the same ECS) must have a maximum or minimum when it intersects the instantaneous
response curve (my Teq value)-- maximum if it was below Teq before, minimum if it was above — because it is always going toward Teq.
I am thinking that the permafrost
feedback article we were discussing was refering to a non-runaway
feedback, but rather a delayed
feedback, which is otherwise just like the fast
feedbacks except that it's
slow response would make clear that it does
feedback on itself according to the climate sensitivity from all other
feedbacks (it drives itself, via climate change, to go farther, but it approaches a limit asymptotically).
The basic idea is that since
feedbacks are a large part of the
response, lags due to ocean thermal inertia
slow down the full
feedback response.
Once the ice reaches the equator, the equilibrium climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2 from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical processes provide a negative
feedback by changing atmospheric CO2 in
response to climate changes, but this is generally very
slow, and thus can not prevent faster changes from faster external forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a runaway in the opposite direction (until the ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined with left - over glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some ice to return).
I am curious as to what additional
slower «earth - system»
feedbacks might be indicated by the release of the methane... i.e. what kind of biological changes might occur to arctic regions by the melting of permafrost and release of methane that will add a longer - term
feedback response that needs to accounted for before any sort of new equalibrium would be reached.
If so, at least over the temperature and climatological conditions we are now facing, working this out quantitatively would stand «transient / equilibrium
responses» or «fast /
slow feedbacks» ruminations on their head.
We also show that
slow feedbacks amplify the global
response to a climate forcing.
DK12 used ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has
slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net climate
feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of global warming in
response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including
feedbacks) is low.
Hi Shawn, Thanks for the
feedback, sorry for the
slow response!
The growth and decay of continental ice sheets represents a
slow feedback operating over millennia; if one is concerned with the more rapid
response of the climate to CO2, ice sheets have to be accounted for as a major forcing.
The longer term sensitivity he means needs
feedbacks that are
slower than the
response of the ocean to come up to an approximate thermal equilibrium.
Slow feedbacks have little effect on the immediate planetary energy balance, instead coming into play in
response to temperature change.
In contrast, the 1000 GtC scenario, although nominally designed to yield a fast -
feedback climate
response of ∼ 2 °C, would yield a larger eventual warming because of
slow feedbacks, probably at least 3 °C.
Model studies for climate change between the Holocene and the Pliocene, when Earth was about 3 °C warmer, find that
slow feedbacks due to changes of ice sheets and vegetation cover amplified the fast
feedback climate
response by 30 — 50 % [216].
Recently there have been some studies and comments by a few climate scientists that based on the
slowed global surface warming over the past decade, estimates of the Earth's overall equilibrium climate sensitivity (the total amount of global surface warming in
response to the increased greenhouse effect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening
feedbacks) may be a bit too high.
For a
slow feedback climate sensitivity of 6 C for doubled CO2, the equilibrium temperature
response would be expected to take much longer (at least several millennia), since this
response has been shown to be a strong function of climate sensitivity (Hansen et al., 1985).
An equilibrium sensitivity of 6 C per doubling is suggested there and this
feedback would be only part of that
slow response.
(e) Hansen et al. (2013) and Previdi (2013) show that the inclusion of
slow -
response feedback mechanisms can cause Earth Systems Sensitivity to be as high as 6 degrees C (while work such as Pistone et al. (2014) shows that the «
slow response»
feedback mechanisms are occurring very quickly).»
Further details were also revealed: the game world has boundaries and is not spherical, as no one knows what lies beyond the sea; the aforementioned mysterious girl, Noi, emerges from one of the ruins falling from the sky; gameplay and battle systems have been adjusted in
response to
feedback about prior games»
slow pacing; and boss fights were apparently one of the first things the staff designed.