The OHC graph shows
a slow warming of the ocean, which is a sign of the positive and sustained imbalance.
Is it possible that
slow warming of the ocean could be the cause of the observed steady increase of CO2 into air?
Not exact matches
The causes
of the
warming remain debated, but Liu and his team homed in on the melting glacial water that poured into
oceans as the ice receded, paradoxically
slowing the
ocean current in the North Atlantic that keeps Europe from freezing over.
«I am very interested in these wind speed increases and whether they may have also played some role in
slowing down the
warming at the surface
of the
ocean,» said Prof Sherwood.
«For the first time we can quantify how
oceans responded to
slow, natural climate
warming as the world emerged from the last ice age,» says Prof. Eric Galbraith from McGill University's Department
of Earth and Oceanic Sciences, who led the study.
When it comes to
slowing down global
warming, the world's
oceans — 70 percent
of the planet's surface — may be Homo sapiens» best hope for a stable future.
What scientists discovered in 2014 is that since the turn
of the century,
oceans have been absorbing more
of global
warming's heat and energy than would normally be expected, helping to
slow rates
of warming on land.
«We found that where
ocean temperatures
warmed beyond a certain point as we neared the equator, at about 29 degrees, the pace
of larval development
slowed,» says study lead author, Dr Ian McLeod.
Scientists have discovered that rising
ocean temperatures
slow the development
of baby fish around the equator, raising concerns about the impact
of global
warming on fish and fisheries in the tropics.
No matter how well the world controls emissions
of greenhouse gases, global climate change is inevitable, warn two new studies which take into account the
oceans»
slow response to
warming.
The observed fact that temperatures increases
slower over the
oceans than over land demonstrates that the large heat capacity
of the
ocean tries to hold back the
warming of the air over the
ocean and produces a delay at the surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to increasing greenhouse gases.
In a transient situation (such as we have at present), there is a lag related to the
slow warm up
of the
oceans, which implies that the temperature takes a number
of decades to catch up with the forcings.
If we go back to the coral reefs, even if I said
ocean acidification will progress
slower in the tropics, the combination
of ocean acidification and
warm temperature is a deadly recipe for corals.
In the case
of warming caused by a disproportionate increase in atmospheric CO2 (compared with oceanic CO2), an increase in temperatures only
slows down the rate at which CO2 is absorbed by the
oceans.
The longevity
of global
warming (Fig. 9) and the implausibility
of removing the
warming if it is once allowed to penetrate the deep
ocean emphasize the urgency
of slowing emissions so as to stay close to the 500 GtC target.
A recent slowdown in the upward march
of global temperatures is likely to be the result
of the
slow warming of the deep
oceans, British scientists said on Monday.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the
oceans cover so much
of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere
warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar
warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and
slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger
slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration
of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Guemas et al. (Nature Climate Change 2013) shows that the
slower warming of the last ten years can not be explained by a change in the radiative balance
of our Earth, but rather by a change in the heat storage
of the
oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño in the initialization
of the models.
This recent
slower warming in the upper
ocean is closely related to the
slower warming of the global surface temperature, because the temperature
of the overlaying atmosphere is strongly coupled to the temperature
of the
ocean surface.
However, the
ocean is very strongly stratified, and the interaction with the bulk
of the deep cold water is very
slow — it is generally the upper
ocean that determines the time scale for the transient
warming we might expect.
Their argument goes like this: It is not possible that
warming of the deep
ocean accelerates at the same time as
warming of the upper
ocean slows down, because the heat must pass through the upper layer to reach the depths.
Given that the cryosphere and
oceans are far better long - term indicators
of changes in Earth's energy balance than the much more «noisy» troposphere, for anyone to suggest that the
warming of the Earth system has
slowed or stopped over the past 10 years, means they are purposely ignoring the far bigger heat sinks
of the cryrosphere and
oceans, or they simply want to spout nonsense.
That the heat absorption
of the
ocean as a whole (at least to 2000 m) has not significantly
slowed makes it clear that the reduced
warming of the upper layer is not (at least not much) due to decreasing heating from above, but rather mostly due to greater heat loss to lower down: through the 700 m level, from the upper to the lower layer.
With even further
warming more hydrates are released, additional global soil feedback (extreme soil respiration rates, compost bomb instability) and weathering becomes a driver, now
Ocean very stratified, maybe things like permanent El Nino, weather systems probably move very slow — everything gets stuck due to lack of perturbed ocean, no or very little frozen water at the p
Ocean very stratified, maybe things like permanent El Nino, weather systems probably move very
slow — everything gets stuck due to lack
of perturbed
ocean, no or very little frozen water at the p
ocean, no or very little frozen water at the poles.
Ocean serves as the memory whereby
slow oceanic Rossby waves and Kelvin waves propagate through the basin and affect the depth
of the oceanic surface layer
of warm water.
It is enhanced too by the formation
of deep water in the polar regions, but
slowed by the
warming of the surface
ocean.
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a recent NASA publication concluding that deep
ocean temperatures have not increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-
ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do not question the overall science
of climate change, it is the latest in a series
of findings that show global
warming to have
slowed considerably during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth in human - produced greenhouse gas emissions during the same time.»
@ 48 If your speculation is correct, I assume that another consequence would be that, if / when concentrations
of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in surface
ocean / land temperatures would take place at a much
slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the deep
ocean will gradually make its way to the
ocean surface, and continue to
warm the atmosphere for decades, if not longer.
Vertical diffusion is
slower, but happens over most
of the
oceans, while downward advection
of anomalously
warm water happens in fewer spots but is faster (the North Atlantic, «Mode» water formation regions north
of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, shelf water formation in Antarctica).
In a transient situation (such as we have at present), there is a lag related to the
slow warm up
of the
oceans, which implies that the temperature takes a number
of decades to catch up with the forcings.
The latter brings a somewhat
slower warming at the surface
of our planet, because more heat is stored deeper in the
ocean.
For example: 1) plants giving off net CO2 in hot conditions (r / t aborbing)-- see: http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=46488 2) plants dying out due to heat & drought & wild fires enhanced by GW (reducing or cutting short their uptake
of CO2 & releasing CO2 in the process) 3)
ocean methane clathrates melting, giving off methane 4) permafrost melting & giving off methane & CO2 5) ice & snow melting, uncovering dark surfaces that absorb more heat 6) the
warming slowing the thermohaline
ocean conveyor & its up - churning
of nutrients — reducing marine plant life & that carbon sink.
Until we clear up whether there has been some kind
of accelerated
warming at depth in the real
ocean, I think these results serve as interesting hypotheses about why the rate
of surface
warming has
slowed - down, but we still lack a definitive answer on this topic.
Even an apparent global dimming trend in the last decade has been unable to
slow the inexorable
warming of the global
oceans.
The LWR
warms the
ocean's surface skin, and
slows the escape
of the solar radiation absorbed by the
ocean bulk, by reducing the convection
of heat to the
ocean surface.
This makes sense since
warming the surfaces
of the world's
oceans would tend to decrease their CO2 - carrying - capacity, and this would be a
slow process due to the buffering effects
of the specific heat capacity
of these large bodies
of water.
Just as there is no «33 °C
warming by greenhouse gases from the minus 18 °C it would be without them» — when the real blanket which
slows heat loss is reinstated — the heavy voluminous fluid
ocean atmosphere
of real gas, mainly nitrogen and oxygen, and when the Water Cycle is reinstated.
However, Watanabe et al. (2013) suggests that these factors can't explain most
of the
slowed surface
warming, which his study attributes to a more efficient transfer
of heat to the deep
oceans.
For example, atmospheric carbon dioxide grew by approximately 30 % during the transition from the most recent cold glacial period, about 20,000 years ago, to the current
warm interglacial period; the corresponding rate
of decrease in surface
ocean pH, driven by geological processes, was approximately 50 times
slower than the current rate driven largely by fossil fuel burning.
Over 90 %
of global
warming accumulates in the
oceans, and there is no indication that it has
slowed.
DK12 used
ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters
of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate
of OHC increase has
slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe
of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods
of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount
of global
warming in response to a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
The great majority
of the
ocean which lies below the mixed layer is 3C so in the long run the
warmer mixed layer can only be cooled by the
slow rate
of energy exchange with the frigid depths.
They avoid some
of the issues in Millar by using more globally - representative surface temperature records, though they still use series that blend surface air temperatures over land with
slower -
warming sea surface temperatures over the
ocean.
While the
warming of average global surface temperatures has
slowed (though not nearly as much as previously believed), the overall amount
of heat accumulated by the global climate has not, with over 90 percent being absorbed by the
oceans.
My opinion expressed elsewhere is that almost all the temperature changes we observe over periods
of less than a century are caused by cyclical changes in the rate
of energy emission from the
oceans with the solar effect only providing a
slow background trend
of warming or cooling for several centuries at a time.
While the
warming of global surface temperatures in recent years has
slowed in large part due to the more efficient heat transfer to the deep
oceans, that can't last forever.
While consistent with the IPCC assessments
of historical
warming, it lacks coverage
of much
of the fast -
warming Arctic region and blends surface air temperatures over land with
slower -
warming sea surface temperatures over the
ocean.
It being further agreed that AGW works by
warming CO2 and hence the atmosphere, resulting in a
slowing of the cooling
of the
oceans into the atmosphere, we are thus back to point (2) above --
It can not account for the huge volume
of leftover
warm water that's below the surface and returned to the West Pacific and into the eastern tropical Indian
Ocean via off - equatorial
slow - moving Rossby waves.
A new article co-authored by the other
of us (Michael Mann), shows that natural
ocean oscillations have recently acted to temporarily
slow the
warming of the Earth's surface temperatures, in combination with a relatively quiet sun, and active volcanoes.