A major factor that the «skeptics» are missing is the massive amount of heat which is going into the oceans, which is
slowing the warming of the surface air, for the time being.
Not exact matches
«I am very interested in these wind speed increases and whether they may have also played some role in
slowing down the
warming at the
surface of the ocean,» said Prof Sherwood.
The future
of the currents, whether
slowing, stopping or reversing (as was observed during several months measurements), could have a profound effect on regional weather patterns — from colder winters in Europe to a much
warmer Caribbean (and hence
warmer sea
surface temperatures to feed hurricanes).
The deceleration in rising temperatures during this 15 - year period is sometimes referred to as a «pause» or «hiatus» in global
warming, and has raised questions about why the rate
of surface warming on Earth has been markedly
slower than in previous decades.
When it comes to
slowing down global
warming, the world's oceans — 70 percent
of the planet's
surface — may be Homo sapiens» best hope for a stable future.
It refers to a period
of slower surface warming in the wake
of the 1997 - 98 super El Niño compared to the previous decades.
On the other hand, if the ice shell is sufficiently thick, the less intense interior heat can be transferred to
warmer ice at the bottom
of the shell, with additional heat generated by tidal flexing
of the
warmer ice which can slowly rise and flow as do glaciers do on Earth; this
slow but steady motion may also disrupt the extremely cold, brittle ice at the
surface to produce the chaos regions.
The observed fact that temperatures increases
slower over the oceans than over land demonstrates that the large heat capacity
of the ocean tries to hold back the
warming of the air over the ocean and produces a delay at the
surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to increasing greenhouse gases.
Natural global
warming is self - rectifying either by
slow chemical weathering processes responsible for mineral sequestration
of carbon or by gradual return
of Earth's orbital parameters to what they were before the onset
of global
warming, thereby significantly reducing the amount
of solar radiation reaching the Earth's
surface.
This chemical weathering process is too
slow to damp out shorter - term fluctuations, and there are some complexities — glaciation can enhance the mechanical erosion that provides
surface area for chemical weathering (some
of which may be realized after a time delay — ie when the subsequent
warming occurs — dramatically snow in a Snowball Earth scenario, where the frigid conditions essentially shut down all chemical weathering, allowing CO2 to build up to the point where it thaws the equatorial region, at which point runaway albedo feedback drives the Earth into a carbonic acid sauna, which ends via rapid carbonate rock formation), while lower sea level may increase the oxidation
of organic C in sediments but also provide more land
surface for erosion... etc..
John Christy and Roy Spencer
of the University
of Alabama published a series
of papers starting about 1990 that implied the troposphere was
warming at a much
slower rate than the
surface temperature record and climate models indicated Spencer and Christy (1992).
The good news is that pulled muscles and muscle aches are easily preventable; always make sure you and Fido
warm up and cool down before and after every activity — this can include a
slow stroll (on soft
surfaces such as grass) to stretch those muscles, applying a cold compress on the affected area, and a gentle massage to reduce the likelihood
of injury.
His works engage the viewer in a
slow process
of viewing and processing in order to notice shifts, from
warm to cool, from the mostly matte
surface to the little tinge
of gloss that hangs out at the edge.
This recent
slower warming in the upper ocean is closely related to the
slower warming of the global
surface temperature, because the temperature
of the overlaying atmosphere is strongly coupled to the temperature
of the ocean
surface.
Ocean serves as the memory whereby
slow oceanic Rossby waves and Kelvin waves propagate through the basin and affect the depth
of the oceanic
surface layer
of warm water.
It is enhanced too by the formation
of deep water in the polar regions, but
slowed by the
warming of the
surface ocean.
...
warming in the Arctic is concentrated close to the Earth's
surface,
slowing the rate at which heat is lost to space from the top
of the atmosphere.
Richard P. Allan, Professor
of Climate Science at University
of Reading (https://theconversation.com/heat-accumulating-deep-in-the-atlantic-has-put-global-warming-on-hiatus-30805): «There seem to have been a dozen or so explanations for why the Earth's
surface has
warmed at a
slower rate over the past 15 years compared to earlier decades.»
@ 48 If your speculation is correct, I assume that another consequence would be that, if / when concentrations
of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in
surface ocean / land temperatures would take place at a much
slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the deep ocean will gradually make its way to the ocean
surface, and continue to
warm the atmosphere for decades, if not longer.
The latter brings a somewhat
slower warming at the
surface of our planet, because more heat is stored deeper in the ocean.
For example: 1) plants giving off net CO2 in hot conditions (r / t aborbing)-- see: http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=46488 2) plants dying out due to heat & drought & wild fires enhanced by GW (reducing or cutting short their uptake
of CO2 & releasing CO2 in the process) 3) ocean methane clathrates melting, giving off methane 4) permafrost melting & giving off methane & CO2 5) ice & snow melting, uncovering dark
surfaces that absorb more heat 6) the
warming slowing the thermohaline ocean conveyor & its up - churning
of nutrients — reducing marine plant life & that carbon sink.
Until we clear up whether there has been some kind
of accelerated
warming at depth in the real ocean, I think these results serve as interesting hypotheses about why the rate
of surface warming has
slowed - down, but we still lack a definitive answer on this topic.
Despite the optimism
of our efforts to
slow warming, many
of us sensed that really dire news was lurking just below the
surface.
Although the rate
of warming of surface air and lower troposphere temperatures appear to have
slowed over the past few years, the same could be said at any virtually any point in time by cherrypicking short - term noise and ignoring the long - term trend (Figure 2).
The LWR
warms the ocean's
surface skin, and
slows the escape
of the solar radiation absorbed by the ocean bulk, by reducing the convection
of heat to the ocean
surface.
This makes sense since
warming the
surfaces of the world's oceans would tend to decrease their CO2 - carrying - capacity, and this would be a
slow process due to the buffering effects
of the specific heat capacity
of these large bodies
of water.
However, over the past decade, the
warming of surface air temperatures has
slowed.
back radiation does nt
warm the
surface, the increase in opacity
slows the rate
of cooling.
The crux
of Bates» claim is that NOAA, the federal government's top agency in charge
of climate science, published a poorly - researched but widely praised study with the political goal
of disproving the controversial global
warming hiatus theory, which suggests that global
warming slowed down from 1998 until 2012 with little change in globally - averaged
surface temperatures — a direct contrast to global
warming advocates» claim that the earth's temperature has been constantly increasing.
It would be more accurate to say that global
surface air
warming has
slowed, but the overall
warming of the Earth's climate has sped up.
However, Watanabe et al. (2013) suggests that these factors can't explain most
of the
slowed surface warming, which his study attributes to a more efficient transfer
of heat to the deep oceans.
For example, atmospheric carbon dioxide grew by approximately 30 % during the transition from the most recent cold glacial period, about 20,000 years ago, to the current
warm interglacial period; the corresponding rate
of decrease in
surface ocean pH, driven by geological processes, was approximately 50 times
slower than the current rate driven largely by fossil fuel burning.
Research on the causes
of slowed surface air
warming is
of course ongoing.
Natural global
warming is self - rectifying either by
slow chemical weathering processes responsible for mineral sequestration
of carbon or by gradual return
of Earth's orbital parameters to what they were before the onset
of global
warming, thereby significantly reducing the amount
of solar radiation reaching the Earth's
surface.
So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some
of the
slowed surface temperature
warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other influences at play as well, such as human aerosol emissions.
They avoid some
of the issues in Millar by using more globally - representative
surface temperature records, though they still use series that blend
surface air temperatures over land with
slower -
warming sea
surface temperatures over the ocean.
While the
warming of average global
surface temperatures has
slowed (though not nearly as much as previously believed), the overall amount
of heat accumulated by the global climate has not, with over 90 percent being absorbed by the oceans.
While the
warming of global
surface temperatures in recent years has
slowed in large part due to the more efficient heat transfer to the deep oceans, that can't last forever.
While consistent with the IPCC assessments
of historical
warming, it lacks coverage
of much
of the fast -
warming Arctic region and blends
surface air temperatures over land with
slower -
warming sea
surface temperatures over the ocean.
From 1998 to 2013, the rate
of global mean
surface warming slowed, which some call the «global
warming hiatus.»
Putting it all together, we have an increasingly clear picture that while the
warming of global
surface temperatures has
slowed over the past decade, it has not
slowed as much as previously thought.
It can not account for the huge volume
of leftover
warm water that's below the
surface and returned to the West Pacific and into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean via off - equatorial
slow - moving Rossby waves.
Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way later published an important paper showing that much
of the
slowed global
surface warming was an artifact
of poor global temperature station coverage, mainly in the Arctic.
A new article co-authored by the other
of us (Michael Mann), shows that natural ocean oscillations have recently acted to temporarily
slow the
warming of the Earth's
surface temperatures, in combination with a relatively quiet sun, and active volcanoes.
What I am not clear on is what has changed in the last few years to cause more heat to be captured by the oceans and less in the atmosphere with the resultant
slower rate
of surface or atmospheric
warming.
They are also wrong in assuming that the Sun was capable
of warming the
surface of Venus, Earth or other planets to the observed temperature which is then maintained by back radiation being supposedly the only process that
slows such
surface cooling.
Since the very
warm surface temperatures
of 1998 which followed the strong 1997 - 98 El NinÌ o, the increase in average
surface temperature has
slowed relative to the previous decade
of rapid temperature increases, with more
of the excess heat being stored in the oceans.
While the
warming of global
surface temperatures has
slowed somewhat, that appears to primarily be due to changing ocean cycles, particularly in the Pacific.
Both types
of variability are likely to be part
of alternation
of slower and faster
warming of the
surface and the troposphere.
Much
of it is forced down and it flows back to the east at 200 metres depth and when the
warm water
surfaces at the Galapogos Islands in 9 months (replaceing the water which is flowing east - west at the
surface), it starts to
slow down the Trade Winds because
of the convection effect.