Using the New Karl, or better described as the ERSST v4, temperature series does indeed make the hiatus go away but not the significant
slowdown in warming from the period 1976 - 1999 to the period 2000 - 2014.
Not exact matches
They'd seen
slowdowns in the past, often associated with natural cycles
in the Earth's climate — England pointed to periods when the Earth has taken a break
from warming, such as
from 1945 to the late 1970s.
NOAA has been the target of congressional scrutiny
from Rep. Lamar Smith (R - Texas), who has launched an inquiry into a 2015 paper
in Science prepared by NOAA researchers that disputed the existence of a recent
slowdown in the rate of global
warming.
If this tropical
warming is combined with a cooler North Atlantic Ocean
from AMOC
slowdown and an increase
in midlatitude eddy energy (Fig. 21), we can anticipate more severe baroclinic storms.
In my opinion, this is a question of the time scale considered: the variations
from year to year are obviously dominated by weather, and also decadal variations — such as the
warming (probably the increase of the flow)
from 1990 to the middle of the 2000s and the subsequent cooling (
slowdown of the flow)-- are likely to be mainly natural variations.
Looking at all of the various inputs to global climate - including CO2 and SO2 emissions
from man, and natural cycles like La Nina / El Nino, as well as changes
in the sun - they believe that the rising sulfate emissions is the most likely factor to have cause the global
warming slowdown, between 1998 and 2008.
(5) explains the cause of the
slowdown in global
warming after around 2000 — cooling
from increased Eastern SO2 emissions offset the
warming caused by Western Clean Air efforts, resulting
in a net
slowdown in the rate of decreasing global SO2 emissions.
A leaked draft of the next major climate report
from the U.N. cites numerous causes to explain the
slowdown in warming: greater - than - expected ash
from volcanoes, a decline
in heat
from the sun, more heat being absorbed by the deep oceans, and so on.
Several studies
from this year show that the
slowdown could be caused by a natural cycle
in the Atlantic or Pacific that caused temperatures to rise more
in the 1980s and 1990s but that has slowed or stopped global
warming now.
«a
slowdown in the MOC is predicted by our model (and others) for a future world, partly as a function of ocean
warming and partly as a function of increased freshening
from ice melt and increased rainfall.
And — ironically — their hypothesis is that the recent
slowdown in warming is
from improperly modeled quasi-periodic effect; not an underestimate of sensitivity.
These salinity shifts correspond well
in timing to the OHC shifts, which are also coincident with surface transitions
from global -
warming slowdown to rapid
warming and then to the current
slowdown, with intervals between shifts lasting about three decades.
The change
in solar forcing
from 1950 until now is essentially nil, while the change
in greenhouse gas forcing fully accounts for the further 0.7 °C
warming (while ENSO + solar accounts for the recent
slowdown).
«We are not implying some kind of recovery
from the effects of human - caused global
warming; it's really just a
slowdown in winter sea ice loss.»
As for how long the
slowdown in warming might last, estimates run the gamut —
from «by the end of this decade» to another 20 years, based on the mix of mechanisms driving the
slowdown, according to several studies presented at the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting
in Phoenix earlier this month.
The research team links rapid sea - level rise within this hotspot to a
slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, which transports
warm water
from the tropics into the higher latitudes.
Either way, the results — echoed
in a recent analysis
from Japan's Meteorological Agency, which found 1.13 degrees F. above the 20th - century average — indicate that global
warming continues unabated, despite a
slowdown in the pace of
warming during the first part of the 21st century.
The evaporative process
in changing energy
from one form to another and
in doing so accelerating throughput again overrides the «normal» application of Fourier's Law and thereby cancels out the anticipated
slowdown from a
warmer skin alone.
Much of the recent discussion of climate sensitivity
in online forums and
in peer - reviewed literature focuses on two areas: cutting off the so - called «long tail» of low probability \ high climate sensitivities (e.g., above 6 C or so), and reconciling the recent
slowdown in observed surface
warming with predictions
from global climate models.
Pierre - Normand: Not so if the temporary
slowdown in the
warming of the upper layer is a result of more upwelling of colder water
from below as a consequence of ENSO / PDO variability (mainly: more La Ninas).
Not so if the temporary
slowdown in the
warming of the upper layer is a result of more upwelling of colder water
from below as a consequence of ENSO / PDO variability (mainly: more La Ninas).
Not only that, but there is increasingly compelling evidence that the recent short - term
slowdown in the surface temperature record was much less pronounced than previously estimated, if rapid Arctic
warming is fully reflected, along with potential biases
from the changing mix of sea surface temperature measurement sources
in recent years.
That would mean that future
warming will be much worse than described
in the latest report
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (which took the
slowdown into account when making its projections).