The Cleveland Cavaliers can extend the NBA Finals to seven games with a home win over the Golden State Warriors as
small betting favorites.
Not exact matches
As a
small contrarian home
favorite, UNC Wilmington may be a decent
bet to finally cover a game this season.
While this sample size is incredibly
small and not something we'd recommend solely using as a
betting system,
favorites clearly outperform underdogs when playing bowl games with new coaches.
In one of this weekend's most heavily
bet games, I love the value on LSU as a
small contrarian
favorite.
It's a
small sample size but teams getting less than 40 % of
bets in National Title games have gone 5 - 1 ATS (dogs 4 - 0 ATS,
favorites 1 - 1 ATS).
More specifically, we found that in games where the «opening line» was -3.1 to -8.1 (
small home
favorites), «
betting against the Public» resulted in a 56 % winning percentage and +50 units over the past two seasons.
There hasn't been a ton of
betting action for these games yet, but both Peru and Honduras are
small favorites, and tickets are balanced on the 3 - way moneylines so far.
We then used our «spread change from open to close» filter to look at instances where a team became a bigger
favorite or a
smaller underdog, thus moving against the public
betting percentages.
Most of the system matches take place during the first two rounds of the tournament, but Villanova fits the bill as a
small favorite receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets.
I would also like to note that most
favorites receiving less than 35 % of moneyline
bets have been
small favorites.
Nearly 2/3 of early
bets are on
small home
favorites Clemson but if the line reaches -3 there may be some value on Notre Dame.
With the game expected to be high scoring and the Vikings
small favorites, there is value
betting Minnesota at home.
Though the Irish were just a
small 2.5 - point
favorite, the
bets were about even evenly split in Wednesday night's game against Virginia Tech.