Is it possible that one or two
small changes in his variables or the parameters (like the probabilities assoicated with the initial conditions seeding the storms) could have changed his conclusions a great deal?
Aren't the predictions of such models extremely dependent on
small changes in the variables and all the parameters?
Not exact matches
Instead of leveraging the MBA to make one or even two career
changes — such as securing a promotion or moving from a
small financial services firm to Morgan Stanley (MS)-- triple jumpers shake up three
variables all at once: country, job function, and industry — and they do all of this
in a highly compressed timeframe.
I know I am lucky, that if one
small variable had
changed, I could have had a series of interventions
in both of my girls» births.
What we call the weather is a highly detailed mix of events that happen
in a particular locality on any particular day — rainfall, temperature, humidity and so on — and its development can vary wildly with
small changes in a few of these
variables.
Correlational evidence shows that sizable
changes in teacher - related
variables are associated with much
smaller changes in student learning outcomes (Hill, Rowan, and Ball, 2005; Hanushek and Rivkin, 2012).
In No Small Change: Targeting Money Toward Student Performance, researchers analyze more than 100 variables before they grade states from A to F on four major categories: the rigor and clarity of the state's standards in core subjects; its efforts to improve teacher quality; its school climate as measured by absenteeism, school safety, parental involvement, character education, and other variables; and the extent to which it provides resources equitabl
In No
Small Change: Targeting Money Toward Student Performance, researchers analyze more than 100
variables before they grade states from A to F on four major categories: the rigor and clarity of the state's standards
in core subjects; its efforts to improve teacher quality; its school climate as measured by absenteeism, school safety, parental involvement, character education, and other variables; and the extent to which it provides resources equitabl
in core subjects; its efforts to improve teacher quality; its school climate as measured by absenteeism, school safety, parental involvement, character education, and other
variables; and the extent to which it provides resources equitably.
You can't dig out of the hole if you are dead, so when you are near that boundary, even
small changes in the distance from death can affect sensitive
variables lke the stock price.
The system can have a net negative feedback and still
change very much provided a radiative forcing from sunlight or CO2 is sufficiently large, although for typical
changes in these
variables that Earth encounters, one would indeed expect only relatively
small climate
changes to occur if negative feedbacks did
in fact dominate.
If proved correct, this theory would suggest that relatively
small, naturally occurring fluctuations
in greenhouse gases are the master
variable that has driven global climate
change on time scales of ten thousand to one million years.
The number, duration and intensity of heat waves (although highly
variable over a
small number of years) should not
change over decades
in a stable climate.
However, simple statistical reasoning indicates that substantial
changes in the frequency of extreme events (and
in the maximum feasible extreme, e.g., the maximum possible 24 - hour rainfall at a specific location) can result from a relatively
small shift of the distribution of a weather or climate
variable.
Carbon dioxide may
in fact have very little effect as a control
variable in pushing climate to shift state — a
small change lost amidst multiple other factors of which clouds, ice, UV and orbital irregularities are the obvious candidates.
What services do storage offer a power system with high
variable renewable energy penetrations, and how might the value of these services
change in different power system contexts (e.g., moderate versus high
variable renewable energy penetrations, large versus
small power systems, market and non-market systems)?
Conceptually —
small changes in conditions precipitate non-linear responses
in the system and the system shifts into a «new» state that is either warmer or cooler by amounts that, because of multiple negative and positive feedbacks, bear no linear relationships to the original control
variable.
Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term
Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show
small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties
in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle
variables.
The system is pushed by
small changes in control
variables past thresholds at which points the balance of ice, dust, cloud and biology shifts.
The point I was trying to make, was that with only these few
variables, you can have lots of temperature variation caused by relatively
small changes in one of the parameters and depending on the scale of the
changes, or the coincidence of one or more
changes acting together, or even opposing each other, the readjustment time of the temperature
in the room would vary.
These are decadal shifts that are non-linear responses to
small changes in control
variables.
They are systems that are non-linearly sensitive to
small changes in control
variables.
While many aspects of the response of the climate system to greenhouse gas forcing appear to be linear, regime or mode transitions can not be quantified by a simple number because responses do not scale with the amplitude of the forcing:
small perturbations can induce large
changes in certain
variables of the climate system.
Your internal body temperature is not necessarily singularly a function of the temperature of the fluid surrounding you,
in some situations your body can compensate, but your body's ability to maintain homeostatis can certainly be affected by a relatively
small change in only one of the
variables which normally create that homeostasis.
In sum, «numerically small changes in climatic variables may produce significant environment changes,» Bryson (1974), pp. 753, 756, 75
In sum, «numerically
small changes in climatic variables may produce significant environment changes,» Bryson (1974), pp. 753, 756, 75
in climatic
variables may produce significant environment
changes,» Bryson (1974), pp. 753, 756, 759.
Fluctuations are damped — they tend to settle down into a particular state until the pressure from relatively
small changes in control
variables results
in instability
in the system as a whole which fluctuates wildly before settling into a different state entirely.
The other problem with computer models, besides the fact that they are not and can not constitute evidence
in and of themselves, is that their results are often sensitive to
small changes in tuning or setting of
variables, and that these decisions about tuning are often totally opaque to outsiders.
Mandelbrot argues that stochastic behavior often arises
in systems where large numbers of input
variables affect the output and where
small perturbations
in some of the input
variables can lead to large
changes in the output.